The most populous country in the world 1.335 billion at the end of 2009 Just under 1/5 of the world’s total > 4 times as large as the US pop. Large than the combined populations of Europe, the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Russia, and Japan Europe 584.7 mil the US 297.1 Canada 32.2 Total: 1294.6 (2008) Mexico110.5 Russia142.2 Japan127.9 Lined up shoulder to shoulder, could go around the earth over 30 times!
Still growing at about 7 million a year But India is expected to pass China in 2025 Population: both Greatest Asset and Liability Several of China’s demographic traits are similar to those of developed countries
China Compared to the US Source: PRB, 2009 ChinaUS Total pop (mid-2009) 1,331.4306.8 Density (pop/mi 2 ) 360 83 Birth rate 12 14 Death rate 7 8 TFR 1.6 2.1 Infant mortality 21 6.6 Life expectancym. 71, f. 75 m.75, f.80 % Urban 46 79 % of pop > 65 yrs 8 13 Per capita GNI ppp $6,020$46,970
Population Growth For a pop to grow steadily, several conditions must be met: Enough food to feed pop. Sufficient medical care, so people don’t die young Capacity to cope with natural disasters Minimum political turmoil Chinese pop. fluctuated considerably over time Intro of potatoes boosted pop. growth
Historical Growth YearDynasty Pop (in mil.) 2140 BCEarly days of the Xia13.55 2 ADHan59.59 280Han16.16 755Tang52.92 1110Song46.73 1403Ming66.60 1762Qing200.47 1949541
Rapid Increase after 1949 It took about 3800 yrs to increase from 10m to 100 mil Net increase in recent periods: 1949-58120 mil 1962-70157 1971-80135 1982-90127 1990-00132 Exceeded 1 billion in 1982 Need to slow down
Population Distribution Where Most People Live: Near Coasts Flat Terrain Near Rivers Temperate Climates Fertile Soil China’s Pop Distribution: Very Uneven Striking Differences b/w East and West
World Population Distribution 4 Clusters: East AsiaS. Asia EuropeNE US & SE CA
Pre-Policy Traditional culture values large families In the early 1950s under the rule of Mao Zedong birth control policies were condemned. Mao said that controlling the population was “a way of slaughtering the Chinese people without drawing blood.” “…[the people] are the most precious of all categories of capital.”
Late, Thin, and Few A campaign launched in 1971 Delayed marriage/childbirth, spacing births at 5- year intervals, and fewer children per couple Contraceptives widely distributed, free of charge Require government permission to have children Family Planning Committees at all levels of governments “Birth control nannies” Intrusive questions
“One Couple, One Child” Adopted in 1979 The harshest birth control policy in the world? Couples are asked to pledge to having only one child
Incentives Free prenatal care Many rewards (mainly to urban residents): larger homes, larger salaries and promotions. Better, often free education for the only children. Paid maternity leave, 3-6 months, or longer The government generally pays for the birth control costs.
Consequences of Violation The official sanction is a fine, but many times much more harsh actions are taken. Sometimes couples are demoted or fired from their jobs. Those having 2nd child cannot register them and therefore they do not legally exist.
Many exceptions for second child have been introduced since 1984 Examples: Both members of the couple are only children First child is disabled For rural residents, if first child is a girl Remarried couples Minority couples
Debate on the “One Couple, One Child” Allow each couple to have two children? pros vs cons
The Impetus for Change Unprecedented Socioeconomic Transitions - From a socialist economy to a market economy - From an agrarian society to an urban, industrial giant - A growing middle class, - Changes in values and social norms Birth Control Policies - Traditional culture favored large families and male heir - Birth control practice in the early 1970: Late, thin, few - “One couple, one child” in 1979 - Modifications of the one child policy
The Changing Demographic Landscapes Decline in Fertility A Rapid Demographic Transition Aging A Skewed Sex Ratio Large-scale Internal Migration esp. rural-urban migration Whither One Couple, One Child?
Decline in Birth Rates TFR:1971: 5.442009: 1.6 Fell below replacement level since 1992 Well below 1.0 in large cities (Beijing, Shanghai, etc.) Birth rate: 1970: 33.43‰ 2009: 12.13‰ Natural growth:1970: 25.83‰2009: 5.05‰ Shanghai: negative growth 17 years in a row so far Significantly lowered pop growth 1971-2009: 400 million fewer people were born because of family planning ??
China’s Demographic Transitions 1949, 2 nd stage of demographic transition High birth (36‰), high but declining death (20‰) Early 1960s: 3 rd stage Birth and death rates started to converge Late 1970s: 4 th stage Low birth and death rates
Skewed Sex Ratio Currently at 119:100 surfeit of boys and dearth of young women Increase by birth order Substantial regional differences 3 Main Reasons: Son preference Use of prenatal sex-detecting technology Declining fertility In 2020, 30-40 million more young men than women Social repercussions “Demographic time bomb”
The “Care for Girls” Program Launched in 2003 Changing Son Preference?