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Birmingham’s population Greg Ball. Birmingham’s Population About one million Large numbers of students and overseas in- migrants. Growing numbers of ‘part-time.

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Presentation on theme: "Birmingham’s population Greg Ball. Birmingham’s Population About one million Large numbers of students and overseas in- migrants. Growing numbers of ‘part-time."— Presentation transcript:

1 Birmingham’s population Greg Ball

2 Birmingham’s Population About one million Large numbers of students and overseas in- migrants. Growing numbers of ‘part-time residents’ Recent ONS changes increased population estimate by 2,400 (0.24%) –Net gain from student inflows adjusted upwards –Net gain from international adjusted downwards –Population aged increase by 4% Main concern IM, but problems in local distribution less acute than in London

3 Revised estimates for 2006 Large gains in student age groups Reductions in most other groups Some concern that to and from study adjustments unbalanced

4 NKM Estimate for 2006 Matching administrative datasets Hampered by lack of LLPG at time “Confirmed population” total similar to ONS (pre-revision) 25-75k possible addition – unmatched records.

5 NKM & ONS 2006 Estimates ONS has many more (students) NKM higher in many ‘non-problem’ ages Greater differences from revised MYE

6 Males and Females ONS had 7,000 fewer males, but 9,000 more females ONS has more males & females aged ONS has fewer males in ages ONS has fewer children – male and female

7 Are estimates too low? Could be 25-75k (2-7%) higher? –Definitional, quality and timing issues –NKM undercounts students Matching problems Students not registering with NHS? –Children and older males more puzzling


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