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Client Logo Here Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Stakeholder Consultation 23 rd February 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "Client Logo Here Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Stakeholder Consultation 23 rd February 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 Client Logo Here Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Stakeholder Consultation 23 rd February 2010

2 Client Logo Here Aims of Session To present outcomes of the Housing Need & Demand Assessment  the requirement for affordable housing  the requirement for market housing To test findings against stakeholder knowledge and experience To examine options to meet housing need

3 Client Logo Here Agenda – 10.30Introduction/Welcome – 11.00HNADA Study Findings – 11.15Coffee – 12.00Focus Groups: Key Strategic Policy Interventions & Meeting Housing Need and Demand – 12.15Focus Group Feedback – 12.45Next Steps 12.45Close of Session

4 Client Logo Here HNADA Objectives 1.To provide an assessment of future housing needs & demands for defined housing market areas. 2.To provide reliable information to support the LHS and Development Planning framework 3.To provide an assessment of type, size and tenure imbalances across the defined geographical area 4.To propose housing supply targets

5 Client Logo Here Housing Market Areas

6 Client Logo Here Housing Market Areas

7 Client Logo Here Assessing the Requirement for Affordable Housing

8 Client Logo Here Plus Current Need X (a quota) Newly Arising Need Minus Equals Supply of Affordable Housing Net Shortfall/ Surplus Affordable Housing Need Calculation

9 Client Logo Here Current Need: Unsuitable Housing Homeless or with insecure tenure: 175 Concealed Households: 219 Overcrowding: 779 Special Needs: 3,194 Poor Condition: 428 Harassment: 127 Current Need = 4,922 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

10 Client Logo Here Total Current Need – Eliminate: ‘In situ solutions’:  Provision of aids/adaptations/support = 680  Net ‘Special Need’ figure = 2,514 Net ‘Current Need’ figure = 4,242 Then eliminate % can meet need in private housing market  52% households can meet market entry price Net Current Need = 2,206 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

11 Client Logo Here Newly Arising Need New household formation: 752  Eliminate new formers who can afford to meet market entry level prices (32%) Existing households falling into need: 724  Change in household circumstances including annual flow of homeless households Newly Arising Estimate = 1,235 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

12 Client Logo Here Affordable Housing Supply Affordable housing relets: 1,075 Committed new affordable supply: 50 Turnover net of units taken out of management: 0 demolitions Annual Supply Estimate = 1,125 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

13 Client Logo Here Interim Calculation Estimate Current need = 4,922  Net current need = 2,206  Net annual current need = 221 (10 years) Annual newly arising need = 1,235 Annual total need = 1,456 Annual affordable supply = 1,125 Estimated shortfall = year Est. shortfall = -3,310 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

14 Client Logo Here Interim Calculation Estimate Current need = 4,922  Net current need = 2,206  Net annual current need = 221 (10 years) Annual newly arising need = 1,103 Annual total need = 1,324 Annual affordable supply = 1,125 Estimated shortfall = year Est. shortfall = -1,990 Affordable Housing Need Low Formation Scenario

15 Client Logo Here Depending on the rate of household formation the annual shortfall in Angus ranges from 199 to 331 This results in a year 10 shortfall of between 1,990 and 3,310 Key Message

16 Client Logo Here Disaggregated Calculation for Affordable Housing

17 Client Logo Here Projecting Future Need Aggregated Housing Needs Analysis: –assumes the current profile of housing supply can meet the type of need identified –assumes need is met over 5 year period Disaggregated Analysis: −determines if supply is ‘fit for purpose’ −detailed match of households to homes by size, area, property type and tenure −assesses if annual need is met by supply and extent to which backlog can be reduced −identifies length of time to address backlog −provides detailed profile of housing shortfall/ surplus to inform strategic planning

18 Client Logo Here Matched to Residual Supply Residual Backlog Annual Newly Arising Need Area Size Type Annual Supply Area Size Type Backlog Housing Need Area Size Type Projected Forward Over Time Until Eliminated

19 Client Logo Here Model Overview Disaggregated Methodology Model Assumptions  Backlog  Newly Arising Need  Supply Model Outputs Key Questions

20 Client Logo Here Base Assumptions The model is based on the 3 components of the aggregated HNADA calculation  Backlog figure  Newly arising need figure  Supply figure 10 year projections model Data input by HMA, Size, Type 4 Housing Market Areas  North HMA (Brechin & Montrose),  East HMA (Arbroath),  South HMA (Carnoustie, Monifieth & Sidlaws),  West HMA (Forfar, Kirriemuir, Angus Glens) Affordability Outcomes applied by HMA

21 Client Logo Here Disaggregated Outcomes Key Outcomes Year 1: 2,407 households have unmet need Year 5: 3,111 households have unmet need Year 10: 4,132 households have unmet need Headlines at Year 5 Shortfall of affordable housing highest in South (-1,742) & West (-1,043) HMA’s Shortfall of affordable housing greatest in 4 bedroom properties: (-1,174) (38%) 74% of shortfall is in General Needs housing 26% of shortfall is in Special Needs housing

22 Client Logo Here Unmet Need for Affordable Housing

23 Client Logo Here Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Area

24 Client Logo Here Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Type

25 Client Logo Here Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Size

26 Client Logo Here Low Formation Scenario Disaggregated Outcomes Key Outcomes Year 1: 2,175 households have unmet need Year 5: 2,413 households have unmet need Year 10: 2,854 households have unmet need

27 Client Logo Here Taking account of size, type and area mismatches and depending on the rate of household formation the year 10 shortfall in Angus ranges from 2,854 to 4,132 Key Message

28 Client Logo Here Assessing the Requirement for Market Housing

29 Client Logo Here Market Housing Requirement Methodology Annual Inward Migration Market Entry Level Current Need for Market Housing Mid-Market Properties Upper End of Market Newly Arising Need for Market Housing Annual Internal Demand Market Supply Affordability Analysis Total Need & Demand for Market Housing Market Entry Level Mid-Market Properties Upper End of Market Match Need & Demand to Supply

30 Client Logo Here Market Housing Requirement Clear Shortfalls in Housing Q1&2 Relates to properties below £129,950 Total Shortfall Year 1: -977 Shortfall over 10 Years: -8,276

31 Client Logo Here Market Housing Requirement Clear Surpluses in Housing Q3&4 Relates to properties £193,750 and above Total Surplus Year 1: +154 Shortfall over 10 Years: +3,030

32 Client Logo Here Market Housing – Reduced Demand Clear Shortfalls in Housing Q1&2 Relates to properties below £129,950 Total Shortfall Year 1: -831 Shortfall over 10 Years: -6,812

33 Client Logo Here Market Housing - Reduced Demand Clear Surpluses in Housing Q3&4 Relates to properties £193,750 and above Total Surplus Year 1: +206 Shortfall over 10 Years: +3,554

34 Client Logo Here Total need = undersupply of lower quartile properties (-8,276) matched against oversupply of higher quartile properties (3,030) = -5,246 Key Message Total need (Reduced Demand) = undersupply of lower quartile properties (-6,812) matched against oversupply of higher quartile properties (3,554) = -3,258

35 Client Logo Here Key Message The Total Requirement for Market housing within Angus over the next 10 years will range from -3,258 to -5,246

36 Client Logo Here HNADA Recommendations

37 Client Logo Here Recommendations The number of households in need does NOT equal number of units to be delivered Need could be met through range of interventions programmed though LHS:  developing partnerships with the private rented sector;  tackling private sector disrepair;  using assistive technology to promote independence in older people;  tackling and preventing homelessness;  making better use of the current affordable and private stock;  developing flexible tenure options; and  increasing housing supply.

38 Client Logo Here Tackling Homelessness 2012 Target Local Need Providing Housing Support Assessment Local Need Fuel Poverty Strategy Climate Change Challenge Local Actions Private Sector Housing Enforcement SOA Local Duty Meeting Housing Need & Demand Housing Supply Target Housing Market Area Evidence Local Delivery Role of PRS in Meeting Need Achieving Sustainable Communities SHIP Local Housing Strategy Investment Direction Development Plan Link

39 Client Logo Here Recommendations AC should prepare an action plan  quantify potential impact of each intervention  set targets for projected impact on overall level of unmet need Residual need should be starting point for supply target setting This process should consider  land capacity  development industry capacity  availability of development funding  corporate vision: Strategic Outcome Agreement


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