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Client Logo Here Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Steering Group Meeting 16 th December 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "Client Logo Here Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Steering Group Meeting 16 th December 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 Client Logo Here Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Steering Group Meeting 16 th December 2009

2 Client Logo Here Aims of Session 1.To detail methodology for disaggregating the requirement for affordable housing 2.To review disaggregated model outcomes 3.To agree assumptions for projections: future housing need/supply 4.To agree structure and presentation of final report

3 Client Logo Here Baseline Housing Need Calculation for Affordable Housing

4 Client Logo Here Plus Current Need X (a quota) Newly Arising Need Minus Equals Supply of Affordable Housing Net Shortfall/ Surplus Affordable Housing Need Calculation

5 Client Logo Here Current Need: Unsuitable Housing Homeless or with insecure tenure: 175 Concealed Households: 219 Overcrowding: 779 Special Needs: 3,194 Poor Condition: 428 Harassment: 127 Current Need = 4,922 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

6 Client Logo Here Total Current Need – Eliminate: ‘In situ solutions’:  Provision of aids/adaptations/support = 680  Net ‘Special Need’ figure = 2,514 Net ‘Current Need’ figure = 4,242 Then eliminate % can meet need in private housing market  52% households can meet market entry price Net Current Need = 2,206 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

7 Client Logo Here Newly Arising Need New household formation: 771  Eliminate new formers who can afford to meet market entry level prices (32%) Existing households falling into need: 724  Change in household circumstances including annual flow of homeless households Newly Arising Estimate = 1,248 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

8 Client Logo Here Affordable Housing Supply Affordable housing relets: 1,075 Committed new affordable supply: 50 Turnover net of units taken out of management: 0 demolitions Annual Supply Estimate = 1,125 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

9 Client Logo Here Interim Calculation Estimate Current need = 4,922  Net current need = 2,206  Net annual current need = 221 (10 years) Annual newly arising need = 1,248 Annual total need = 1,469 Annual affordable supply = 1,125 Estimated shortfall = year Est. shortfall = -3,440 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

10 Client Logo Here Disaggregated Calculation for Affordable Housing

11 Client Logo Here Projecting Future Need Aggregated Housing Needs Analysis: –assumes the current profile of housing supply can meet the type of need identified –assumes need is met over 5 year period Disaggregated Analysis: −determines if supply is ‘fit for purpose’ −detailed match of households to homes by size, area, property type and tenure −assesses if annual need is met by supply and extent to which backlog can be reduced −identifies length of time to address backlog −provides detailed profile of housing shortfall/ surplus to inform strategic planning

12 Client Logo Here Matched to Residual Supply Residual Backlog Annual Newly Arising Need Area Size Type Annual Supply Area Size Type Backlog Housing Need Area Size Type Projected Forward Over Time Until Eliminated

13 Client Logo Here Model Overview Disaggregated Methodology Model Assumptions  Backlog  Newly Arising Need  Supply Model Outputs Key Questions

14 Client Logo Here Base Assumptions The model is based on the 3 components of the aggregated HNADA calculation  Backlog figure  Newly arising need figure  Supply figure 10 year projections model Data input by HMA, Size, Type 4 Housing Market Areas  North HMA (Brechin & Montrose),  East HMA (Arbroath),  South HMA (Carnoustie, Monifieth & Sidlaws),  West HMA (Forfar, Kirriemuir, Angus Glens)

15 Client Logo Here Base Assumptions Size: Bedrooms 1 to 5 Property Type  General Needs  Special Needs Wheelchair Accommodation without Stairs Sheltered Supported

16 Client Logo Here Base Assumptions Input by 7 components of need and split by area and size based on analysis of survey or council datasets Homeless Households = 136 Insecure Tenure = 39 Concealed Households = 219 Overcrowding = 779 Special Housing: net of in-situ solutions = 2,514 Poor Quality = 428 Harassment = 127 TOTAL = 4,242 Facility in model to input projected increase/decreases on base assumptions Affordability outcomes applied by HMA

17 Client Logo Here Housing Affordability Disaggregated Outcomes by HMA  Net Backlog of Current Need (Angus) = 2,121  Net Backlog of Current Need (4 HMA) = 2,212  New Formers Affordability (Angus) = 524  New Formers Affordability (4 HMA) = 461

18 Client Logo Here Newly Arising Need Assumptions New Formation – split by area, size and type based on survey data = 771  Assumption : All General Needs  Affordability Factor : applied by HMA  Facility to increase/decrease per annum Homelessness input by area, size and type based on analysis of HL1 dataset = 724  Assumption : All General Needs?  Increase p.a. according to 2012 target 724 = 2008/09 (85% priority assessment) Increased to 100% (2009/10 – 2012/13)

19 Client Logo Here Supply Assumptions Council & RSL stock calculation, split by HMA, size and type Adjusted for long term voids and units taken out of management Council & RSL relet rate established by area and type based on turnover analysis  Applied to stock to translate into annual supply of affordable dwellings by area, size and type  Facility to model increase/decrease in supply and turnover rate

20 Client Logo Here Baseline Year Supply Assumptions Total Affordable Stock = 10,866  Angus Council = 7,817  RSL’s = 3,049 units Adjusted for RTB Projections  31 units per annum (average )  AC HRA Business Plan assumptions Adjusted for demolitions = 0 Turnover rate by HMA/type applied to stock to produce vacancies  Angus Council Ave for GN stock = 7%  RSL Ave for GN stock 6%

21 Client Logo Here Baseline Year Supply Assumptions New Affordable Housing Supply Based on TAYplan assumptions  Based on AHIP budget and £74k cost per unit  Reduction in AHIP of 25% from 2009/10 level  Projected over 10 years 49 units per annum Split new housing by area, size and type as per the current stock profile Relet rate based on 50% of the average RSL rate (3%)

22 Client Logo Here Disaggregated Outcomes Key Outcomes Year 1: 2,439 households have unmet need Year 5: 3,228 households have unmet need Year 10: 4,399 households have unmet need Headlines at Year 5 Shortfall of affordable housing highest in South (-1,605) & West (-1,339) HMA’s Shortfall of affordable housing greatest in 4 bedroom properties: (-1,188) (35%) 85% of shortfall is in General Needs housing 15% of shortfall is in Special Needs housing

23 Client Logo Here Disaggregated Outcomes Key Drivers in Increasing Shortfall Baseline backlog current need = -2,277 Average annual shortfall = -193  Minimum shortfall = - 53 (baseline year)  Maximum shortfall = -238 (Year 10) Annual shortfalls increase as a result of:  Increasing number of annual homeless households  Reducing stock numbers Cumulative annual shortfall = -2,122 Backlog + total annual shortfall = -4,399

24 Client Logo Here Unmet Need for Affordable Housing

25 Client Logo Here Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Area

26 Client Logo Here Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Type

27 Client Logo Here Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Size

28 Client Logo Here HNADA Conclusions – Key Issues

29 Client Logo Here Market Housing Requirement: Key Issues There are significant differences in market housing demand between HMA’s  Demand concentrated in the South HMA Since 2007 there has been a significant drop in the level of sales activity within the market (30%)  For modelling purposes, it is anticipated that the market will to its 2007 level by Year 10 The evidence supports the view that by 2019 there will be a shortfall of over 6,000 market dwellings throughout Angus

30 Client Logo Here Market Housing Requirement: Key Issues Difficult to predict the likely pattern of market recovery the evidence suggests that high quality market housing for older households is likely to be a robust market sector Given the assumptions used within the model the land requirement for market housing can be assessed by:  (Known current land bank) – (land requirement for assumed level of new build within model (290 units)) + (land requirement to meet unmet need of 6,000 households)

31 Client Logo Here Recommendations The number of households in need does NOT equal number of units to be delivered Need could be met through range of interventions programmed though LHS:  developing partnerships with the private rented sector;  tackling private sector disrepair;  using assistive technology to promote independence in older people;  tackling and preventing homelessness;  making better use of the current affordable and private stock;  developing flexible tenure options; and  increasing housing supply.

32 Client Logo Here Tackling Homelessness 2012 Target Local Need Providing Housing Support Assessment Local Need Fuel Poverty Strategy Climate Change Challenge Local Actions Private Sector Housing Enforcement SOA Local Duty Meeting Housing Need & Demand Housing Supply Target Housing Market Area Evidence Local Delivery Role of PRS in Meeting Need Achieving Sustainable Communities SHIP Local Housing Strategy Investment Direction Development Plan Link

33 Client Logo Here Recommendations AC should prepare an action plan  quantify potential impact of each intervention  set targets for projected impact on overall level of unmet need Residual need should be starting point for supply target setting This process should consider  land capacity  development industry capacity  availability of development funding  corporate vision: Strategic Outcome Agreement


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