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Young People in England An evidence discussion paper Young People Analysis & Strategic Analysis Department for Children, Schools and Families This document.

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1 Young People in England An evidence discussion paper Young People Analysis & Strategic Analysis Department for Children, Schools and Families This document is for discussion purposes only and is not a statement of Government policy

2 2 Contents Introduction Context – Trends in Youth Development Drivers in Successful Youth Transitions Where Policy Intervenes Principles from the Evidence

3 3 This is a review of adolescence in contemporary England, viewed through a developmental perspective. Introduction Look at the demands from employers of new labour market entrants. Look at the expectations of society from new adults. What attributes do adolescents need to develop? We take stock of how adolescents develop the skills for adulthood, and explain the challenges they encounter. We define the role of Government in supporting the development of young people. We consider whether the fact that the lives of young people are changing rapidly matters for adolescent development, or has significant policy implications. We will… Further…

4 4 Structure of Report Introduction Trends Drivers Role of Government Principles As a starting point, we briefly review aspects of young people’s world that have undergone significant and relevant change. The main body of this report discusses the drivers of successful youth transitions into adulthood. What development is required to exploit opportunities? And which factors influence that development? And how do they operate? We examine how government intervention impacts on different groups of young people in supporting making better transitions. Principles and areas emerging from the evidence for possible future intervention.

5 5 Adolescence is not strictly defined by chronological age, but we can identify a number of stages and changes Pre-adolescence Age 9 to 13 Begins with the onset of puberty and is marked by the most rapid growth spurt. The time when the need for independence becomes increasingly apparent. The time during which teenagers start to disengage with their families and begin to shift to economic and emotional independence. Middle adolescence Age 14 to 16 Late adolescence Age 17 to 19 Asmussen et al. (2007) Supporting parents of teenagers Blakemore S-J & Choudhury, S (2006) Development of the adolescent brain: implications for executive function and social cognition. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry Introduction Stages Changes Physical Psycho-social Intellectual Brain Development Development in this stage is unrivalled by any other point in development except infancy. Puberty triggers a surge of growth and sex hormones. The brain re-organises: some areas get less efficient, such as working memory, while others, such as recognising emotion, get stronger. Adolescence is a distinct phase in the development of thinking skills. Thinking changes from concrete thinking (e.g. yes and no) to formal operations including abstraction and forming hypotheses. Adolescence is the stage when young people start developing personal identity; trying on different roles to work out who they are and how they fit within society. This can involve tensions within families as young people seek independence and a separate identity.

6 6 The role of Government in young people’s lives has to balance the needs of the individual, society and the economy There is no single “route” through adolescence, but it does needs correct pace in order to benefit society and the individual. –Too fast: young adults are less likely to have the skills needed to be self-sufficient sustainably. –Too slow: the financial burden on family and society may become excessive. The principle of self-responsibility is strong and Government has a critical role in promoting opportunity and information so that everyone can to do best for themselves. However, important inequalities amongst young people exist, and Government has an important role in targeting support to those with either fewer opportunities or inability to fully exploit them. Some activities of young people impact adversely on other members of society, such as anti-social behaviour. It is right for government to intervene to stop it; exactly as happens with other people. Introduction

7 7 Contents Introduction Context – Trends in Youth Development Drivers in Successful Youth Transitions Where Policy Intervenes Principles from the Evidence

8 8 We briefly look at trends in some of the main changes that have occurred in the lives of young people and how they view life today. Demographic Economic Social We do so under these headings: ….Finally, we characterise the voice of young people Learning Technological

9 9 The demographic landscape for adolescents is changing Trends in Youth Development Demographic Population projections (England) There are 3.3 million year olds in England. From a recent high point, this number is currently falling and will continue to do so over the next 10 years, before bouncing back. The proportion of year olds in the population will fall over the next decade from 1 in 16 to 1 in 19 - the lowest ever share. Minority ethnic groups are 14% of year olds, compared with only 5% of over 50s. Sources: ONS (2009) Population estimates by ethnic group, mid-2007 (experimental). GAD (2009) Population Projections 2008 estimates

10 10 More young people than ever are attaining in learning… Trends in Youth Development Learning Attainment at age 16 has risen steeply year- on-year for over the last 20 years since the introduction of GCSEs… …and by age 19 a further fifth of young people gain Level 2 and half gain Level 3 Trends in GCSE/O-level attainment Attainment at GCSEs introduced Source: GCSE and Equivalent Results in England, 2008/09 and DCSF time series DCSF Level 2 and 3 Attainment by Young People in England Measured Using Matched Administrative Data: Attainment by Age 19 in 2008

11 11 …however, despite progress over the last decade, social gradients persist in attainment… Trends in Youth Development Learning 1 in 5 young people in the poorest households gain 5 or more A*-C GCSEs (inc. English & Maths) compared to three quarters of those from the richest homes - a gap of over 50% pts. GCSE threshold attainment by parental income quintileGCSE average point scores by parental income quintile Source: Chowdry et al. (2009), Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success - Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. DCSF-RR102

12 12 …and in post-16 participation in learning. Trends in Youth Development Learning SEGNS-SEC Participation rate in FT Education at 16 by socio-grouping Sources: Participation in Education, Training and Employment by Year Olds in England SFR 12/2009; YCS cohorts 3 to 13 Gregg and Macmillan (2009) Family Income and Education in the Next Generation: Exploring the income gradients in education for the current cohorts of youth. CMPO Working Paper 09/223 …although taking a longer view, the relationship between family income and staying on has decreased substantially over the years. The proportion of 16 year olds participating in education and training is at the highest ever rate, though gaps between social groups persist… Relationship between family income and staying on in education post 16 across cohorts Clearly as we move to full participation with RPA, socio- economic differences in participation will disappear

13 13 Aggregate snap-shot statistics mask extensive diversity in the pathways young people follow post-GCSE. ‘Continuous education’ - 59% of young people remain in full-time education for two full years after compulsory education. ‘Mainly NEET’ – 5% of young people cycle between NEET and other activities (mainly work with out training). Some young people spend the full two years NEET. ‘Becoming NEET’ – 5% of young people who complete or drop out of a course of full-rime education spend most of the remainder of their period NEET. Some start jobs only to leave them quickly. ‘Return to education’ – 5% of young people who enrol in full time education at 17, having spent spells in a variety of activities at age 16. ‘Education to job without training’ – 5% of young people who stay in full time education in the first year only to leave to a job without training. ‘Job with training’ – 8% of young people spend most of their time in jobs with training, a small number with short periods of other activity. ‘Increasing job without training’ – 8% of young people spend most of their time in jobs without training, with some spending the first year NEET or other activities. ‘Education to work with training’ – 6% of young people who study in full-time education at 16, then move into a job with training, however some with a short period NEET. Source: DCSF using LSYPE and YCS Here the LSYPE & YCS have been used to categorise the routes taken by young people in the two years following compulsory education. This pie chart represents eight stereotypical pathways based on individual monthly activity data. Trends in Youth Development Learning 3 out of 5 young people continue in full-time education continuously to 18 or beyond. The remaining 41% follow many routes post-16, often cycling between periods in learning, work (with or without training), unemployment and inactivity.

14 14 Greater participation in learning has extensively altered the relationship young people have with the labour market… Trends in Youth Development Economic The transition out of education and into full time work has become more problematic for young people, who have been hit particularly hard recently by the recession. Over 300, & 17 year olds in full-time education are also in part-time employment, though they are becoming a diminishing minority. ILO unemployment by age Employment rate of year olds in FT Education Recession Source: ONS Labour Market Statistics

15 15 The expansion of higher education has seen more young people leave home at age 18 - but adults in their 20s are now more likely to live with their parents than they were 20 years ago …and this has happened at the same time as changes to independent living. More educated young people are staying at home longer… Berrington et al. (2009) in Population Trends 138, ONS Trends in Youth Development Social The trend is most marked for those with higher qualifications suggesting more returners home after university. Percentage of young adults living with their parent (s) by age and gender Percentage of males and females aged living with parents) in 1988 and 2008 according to highest educational qualification

16 16 …and starting families later. Average age of mother at first birth, Trends in Youth Development Social Adolescent fertility rate: births per women aged 15-19, 2005 …although a significant minority become pregnant as teenagers. By age 17/18, 3% of young people have children of their own (LSYPE Sweep 5 / YCS Sweep 2) Parents are getting older, as they start families later in life… Rate per 1000 Source: ONS Social Trends 2009; World Development Indicators 2008.

17 17 Digital age has profoundly changed what young people do, how they see themselves and communicate with one another... Trends in Youth Development Technological Media Literacy Audit, Ofcom (2009); Youthnet’s Life Support: Young people’s needs in a digital age report. Twitter.com The growth of Twitter in recent year exemplifies the explosion of social networking. 45% 32% 82% 37% 75% 55% 90% year olds who used the internet at home had created a page or profile on a social networking site (2007). said that they couldn't live without the internet. said that they felt happiest when online. agreed with the statement: 'I can access all the information I need online, there is no need to speak to a real person about my problems'. said they had used the internet to look for advice and information for themselves and 60% had for other people. said that they would use the internet to give advice to others on sensitive issues year olds use a mobile phone (2007).

18 18...but despite this technological change, what year olds say most worries them feels remarkably familiar. Source: DCSF Digital Comms presentation, quant online survey of s Top 15 responses shown Education Net 74% Careers Net 34% Relationships Net 44% Health Net 20% Driving lessons/learning to drive, growing up, travel Trends in Youth Development Voice of Young People In the past 6 months, what have been the 3 most challenging issues you have come across in your life?

19 19 Young people today embody many of the values of modern Britain On voting – 51% likely to vote in general election. Only 11% said they definitely wouldn’t vote… …but this rose to over one quarter for those with the lowest qualifications. 74% of young people agreed that people from different racial, ethnic and religious backgrounds get on well together in their local community 80% Pakistani YP say that being British is important to them. Trends in Youth Development Voice of Young People Young people are liberal and racially tolerant. They are proud to be British and perceive Britain as providing opportunity for self-improvement… It is easier for people like me to get on and improve things for themselves than it was for my parents Britain today is a place where people are usually treated fairly no matter what background they come from These days newspapers usually make young people out to be much worse than they actually are There is too little respect for religion and religious values in Britain today Britain is a free country where everyone’s rights are respected no matter what their background 78% 55% 78% 56% 60% StatementAgree Young people are perhaps surprisingly politically engaged Voting Community Cohesion Source: LSYPE wave 5; YCS Cohort 13, Sweep 2

20 20 Contents Introduction Context – Trends in Youth Development Drivers in Successful Youth Transitions Where Policy Intervenes Principles from the Evidence

21 21 There is no one single, linear, successful youth transition to adulthood. Transitions occur at different ages and at different rates. ChildhoodAdulthood Parental AttitudesFamily ResourcesFriends and PeersCommunitySchool Young Person's Attitudes and Behaviours Employers’ Demands Drivers in successful Youth Transitions Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Economic and wider Outcomes A conceptual model…

22 22 What do we mean by cognitive and social & emotional skills? Cognitive skills are the basic mental abilities we use to think, study, and learn… …Social and Emotional skills cover a much wider range. They are sometimes referred to as ‘soft skills’ or ‘life skills’. They include a wide variety of mental processes used to: Analyse sounds and images; Recall information from memory; Make associations between different pieces of information; and Maintain concentration on particular tasks. They can be individually identified and measured. Cognitive skill strength and efficiency correlates directly with students' ease of learning. Examples of skills and characteristics that commonly fall under this heading: Optimism Confidence / self confidence Perseverance and persistence Planning and organising Dependability Self-esteem Emotional intelligence Self management Team work Locus of control Managing relationships Managing stress Self-efficacy

23 23 Cognitive skills are ultimately the single most important driver of economic outcomes… Economic Outcomes Employment rate by highest qualification level Wage* returns to academic and vocational qualifications In general, higher qualifications carry higher returns and academic qualifications earn more than their vocational counterparts… …and qualifications are associated with higher employment rates. Source: Jenkins et al (2007): The Returns to Qualifications in England, Updating the Evidence Base on Level 2 and Level 3 Vocational Qualifications. CEE Discussion Paper no. 89. Vocational degrees include “professional” qualifications such as accountancy, law, etc. *Wage returns are interpreted as the average percentage increase in wages or the chance of being employed as result of holding a particular qualification compared to other people that do not hold that qualification. They are a more sophisticated way to analyse the economic value of skills as they take account of other factors that also might affect wages or employment chances. Examples of these include, gender, age, ethnicity, hours worked and region. AcademicVocational

24 24 …and the labour market seems to be absorbing the increase in supply of qualifications, with average returns remaining stable… Economic Outcomes …the same applies for vocational qualifications Average wage returns Returns for academic qualifications have remained fairly stable over time… Average wage returns Source: Jenkins et al (2007): The Returns to Qualifications in England, Updating the Evidence Base on Level 2 and Level 3 Vocational Qualifications. CEE Discussion Paper no. 89.

25 25 Sources: Felstead et al (2006) Skills at work; IER estimates base on Census and LFS data …and demand for cognitive and social and emotional skills is likely to continue. Economic Outcomes Employers’ demands The level of skill required to do a job is generally rising… …and the type of skills demanded are also changing, from manual skills, to abilities in communication and self-management. Changes in qualifications required , million jobsProjected change in skill requirements to 2010

26 26 Employers have clear demands on young entrants to the labour force – including social and emotional skills. National Employers Skills Survey 2009; National Employers Skills Survey Results from 79,000 employers Economic Outcomes Employers’ demands … although it is with personal attributes that greatest shortcomings are identified. In preparation for the world of work, satisfaction of employers towards young people remains reasonably good, and is improving… Employers’ views on the preparedness of young people for work Employers’ views on the shortcomings of young people’s preparedness for work Personal attributes are defined in NESS as: Lack of motivation/enthusiasm/commitment; work ethic/poor attitude to work; time keeping skills/punctuality; poor attitude (inc. manners/respect); not prepared to work long hours; discipline; social/people skills; common sense; initiative; confidence; responsibility; personal appearance/presentation.

27 27 Social and emotional skills are also important in determining outcomes, including cognitive skills 1) Duncan et al, 'School Readiness and Later Achievement.', Developmental Psychology 43:6. Filled triangles indicate statistically significant coefficients (2008). Results based on results from 6 surveys across different countries. Relative Impact of Different Skills on Numeracy Achievement 1 There is significant interdependence between cognitive and social /self-regulation skills – with achievement in maths… Cognitive social and emotional Recent research has shown that attentiveness and locus of control are almost as important as cognitive skills for educational attainment and economic outcomes… Estimated coefficient Marginal effect Cognitive skills social and emotional skills The relative importance of cognitive and social and emotional at age 10 on likelihood of attaining minimum educational qualifications at age ) Feinstein (2000), The relative importance of academic, psychological and behavioural attributes developed in childhood. 2) Carneiro et al, (2007), The Impact of Early Cognitive and social and emotional Skills on Later Outcomes; Each marker refers to an individual study. The black markers are studies with statistically significant results

28 28 Young peoples’ attitudes and behaviours are key and they are shaped by a variety of influences ChildhoodAdulthood Parental AttitudesFamily ResourcesFriends and PeersCommunitySchool Young Person's Attitudes and Behaviours Employers’ Demands Drivers in successful Youth Transitions Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Economic and wider Outcomes A conceptual model…

29 29 Individual child attitudes are critical. Levels of self-belief are related to attainment, whereas changes are more closely associated with engagement in risky behaviours… There are strong associations between children’s beliefs regarding their own ability and their academic attainment…. …but losing self-belief is also associated with increased likelihood in engagement in risky behaviours. There are also strong associations between whether a child believes they have control over their own economic destiny (locus of control) and their academic attainment… Impact of child self-belief on various outcomes at age 16 Source: Chowdry et al. (2009), Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success - Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. DCSF-RR102 *Goodman and Gregg ed.s (forthcoming) Children’s educational outcomes: the role of attitudes and behaviours, from early childhood to late adolescence. Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Effect size (% of standard deviation) for KS4; Marginal percentage point effect for other outcomes

30 30 Engaging in multiple ‘risky’ behaviours is also associated with low educational attainment… Engaging in only one or two risky behaviours is associated with a small and statistically insignificant reduction in attainment (< 1 GCSE grade = 6 GCSE points) However, multiple engagement in risky behaviours is associated with up to a 20% reduction in GCSE points. A reduction in 8-12 entire GCSE grades. Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Impact of engagement in multiple risky behaviours on GCSE attainment Source: LSYPE Note: 6 points represent 1 grade in 1 subject, although 16 points are given for the lowest pass (grade G)

31 31 …and undertaking self-developmental activity is associated with better educational attainment and fewer risky behaviours. Young people engaging in self-development activities, including sport, on average achieved 10%-20% higher GCSE point scores…. ….Self-development activities are correlated with fewer risky behaviours, whereas there is a positive correlation with socialising activities Impact of engagement in multiple self- development behaviours on GCSE attainment Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Source: LSYPE Note: 6 points represent 1 grade in 1 subject, although 16 points are given for the lowest pass (grade G) Impact of socialising activities and self development activities on engagement in risky behaviours

32 32 Parental attitudes and behaviours, along with family processes, matter a great deal for older children. Good parenting matters for older children too. Most families function as supportive unit –e.g. 74% eat together most nights (age 13/14) Teenagers rely on their parents for psychological and emotional support. Sharing problems is strongly associated with post-16 transitions. –Young people who “never talk to mum about things that matter” are twice as likely to become NEET as those who talk at least once a week (15% versus 8%)… –…and 15% less likely to be in full-time education. Overwhelming evidence from LSYPE that these sort of behaviours matter for attainment through KS4, over and above earlier age effects. Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Parental Attitudes Young people, who get on badly with their parents are associated with a lower likelihood of being in FT education Source: LSYPE

33 33 Parents act as an important source of support and guidance. Happy adolescents feel most able to talk to their parents about things that matter… …but only 1 in 5 unhappy or depressed adolescents felt able to talk to their parents. Having someone to talk to matters. 26% feeling much more unhappy than usual had no-one to talk to. Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Parental Attitudes People that young people are likely to talk to about things that matter to them, by self-reported well-being Source: LSYPE, wave 4 “ Who are you most likely to tell your problems to? ” … disaggregated by how young person feels.

34 34 Parental expectations to stay on in learning post age 16 have become a social ‘norm’… Parental expectations have risen across all social class background, with gaps narrowing in latest born cohort Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Parental Attitudes Although high social class parents have the highest learning aspirations for their children, the picture is reversed once adjusted for prior attainment. Direct influence of parental education on parental expectations for education has reduced for the later born cohorts. The role of academic attainment in influencing expectations among teenagers and parents has reduced for later born cohort. Therefore, it suggests that social change has made further education a norm. Sources: Schoon and Polek (2009) High Hopes in a Changing World: Social disadvantage and educational expectations in three age cohorts percentage

35 35 …but there are socioeconomic differences in parents’ assessment of the likelihood of this happening Most parents would like their young person to continue in education beyond the age of …but the extent to which parents think it is likely their young person will enter HE varies significantly by income % of parents who said education when asked what they would like YP to do when they leave school? Proportion of parents who thought it was likely their child would enter Higher Education Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Parental Attitudes Source: LSYPE percentage proportion

36 36 Socio-economic differences in financial and other resources in families impacts on access to services that aid attainment Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Family Resources Differential access to family resources also impacts on affordability of participation in learning post-16 and may contribute to the significant drop-off in aspiration toward HE for young people and their parents from lower social-class families between the ages of 14 and 16. Although there are strong differences in educational outcomes by family income, the causal impact of income is only modest, albeit significant Indicative ways in which differential access to resources affects attainment is shown through the gradients in use of private tuition and in access to computer or internet access. UK evidence suggest that a one- third reduction in family income increases the propensity to achieve no A-C GCSEs by between 1 and 3 percentage points… Gregg and Blanden, 2004 “Family Income and Educational Attainment: A Review of Approaches and Evidence for Britain”, Access to material resources by socio- economic position Chowdry et al. (2009), Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success - Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. DCSF-RR102

37 37 As young people get older they spend more time with their peers, particularly those from more socially disadvantaged groups. Sources: Young People in Britain: The attitudes and Experiences of 12 to 19 Year Olds, NatCen (2004); Currie at al, 2004; DWP, 2005 (based on year olds); Asmussen et al. (2007) …with young people from lower SEGs spending more time with peers than those from higher SEGs 3 Number of days visited friends at home last week Number of days had friends round last week During adolescence, young people want to spend more time with peers. Parents help to moderate young people’s peer and community contexts. For example, parental values and practices indirectly determine their teenagers’ choice of peer group or ‘crowd’. The importance of the peer group appears to peak at age 15 and is particularly influential for boys. Young people in the UK, in particular boys, spend more time with their peers than almost all other OECD countries. Young people in lone parent families working more than 16 hours per week are most likely to frequently spend time at friends’ houses and have their friends over to theirs. Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Friends and Peers Interaction with friends, by lone parent/working status “I’d rather spend time with friends than family” by age percentage

38 38 The majority of young people have good peer relations, helping them to develop themselves throughout adolescence… Sources: Office of National Statistics 2005; Sullivan 1953; Hodges et al 1999; Rubin et al 1998 ; Epstein 1986; Savin- Williams & Berndt (1990); Hartup (1993); Armsden & Greenberg (1987); Buhrmester and Yin (1997) Do you have a satisfactory friendship network? Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Friends and Peers Young people are more likely to be satisfied by their friendship networks 1 Good peer relations are integral to the development of internal (personal) skills. Making and keeping friends requires an assortment of internal skills including functional skills such as: problem solving; aspects of self-regulation including perspective taking ability, affect recognition; self-belief; and social & behavioural skills such as communications skills, understanding others and so on. As these competencies develop friendships change and can become more stable and reciprocal. 5 Strong positive peer friendships cushion young people from the stresses associated with experiences like bullying or even the divorce of parents, as friends provide important help and advice about how to manage problems. 3 They can also produce feelings of personal well-being and prevent loneliness. 3 Age Range (Years )

39 39 …however, a significant minority struggle to form or maintain peer relationships. Good Childhood Enquiry (2005); Gifford-Smith et al 2002; LSYPE Young people who said they had a friend they could really trust Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Friends and Peers If a young person’s peer influences are primarily negative, the likelihood of adjustment difficulties later on are increased. For example, a lack of friendships at an early age is linked to later depression. Although most young people have friends, up to 18% of today’s young people have no ‘best friend who they can really trust’ 1 … …and young people from lower socio-economic backgrounds are marginally more likely to be bullied Young people bullied in the past 3 years (years 9, 10 or 11) percentage

40 40..and not having good friendship and peer relationships is associated with poorer outcomes. Any form of being bullied is associated with reduced attainment. Overall, being bullied in KS4 is correlated with a reduction in attainment of 2 GCSE grades. Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Friends and Peers Those bullied are less likely to be in full-time education and more likely to become NEET Happiness and well-being is much lower for those experiencing bullying. Association between different types of bullying and impact on GCSE score Source: LSYPE wave 4

41 41 Neighbourhood characteristics in and of themselves appear to have little influence on outcomes, except NEET 41 Deprived individuals living in deprived areas are more likely to be NEET at age 17 than deprived individuals living in non- deprived areas. However same study finds no evidence that neighbourhood deprivation (after controlling for other factors) consistently affects Key Stage 4 scores or any behavioural outcomes at age 16… …though the literature is more mixed about the impact of neighbourhoods on behavioural outcomes. Impact of multiple deprivation on chances of being NEET (relative to 20% most deprived neighbourhoods) Source: Chowdry et al. (2009), Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success - Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. DCSF-RR102 Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours Community Marginal effect (% point)

42 42 Relatively little of the difference in pupils’ attainment can be explained by differences across schools… 42 Percentage of between-school variation in Key Stage 2 and 4 taking into account prior attainment and other pupil characteristics About 8% of the variation between pupils in Key Stage 4 is attributable to school differences. Voluntary-Aided schools have the best GCSE results, but they also have a higher quality intake DCSF (2009) DCSF (2008) The Composition of Schools in England Key Stage 2 and 4 attainment by school type Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours School Higher between-school variation in primary reflects the fact that the primaries have a large number of institutions, each with a small number of teachers and pupils, and secondary which has a smaller number of institutions, each with a large number of teachers and pupils. percentage

43 43 …but good teachers do seem to matter. Being taught by a high-quality (75th percentile) rather than low-quality (25th percentile) teacher adds of a GCSE grade per subject. Rivkin et al. (2005) find the gap in GCSE points between a poor and non-poor student is 6.08 GCSE points… …so if a poor student had good teachers for all 8 subjects and the non-poor student had poor (25th percentile teachers) for all 8, this would make up 3.4 points (56%) of the difference. Impact of teacher quality on GCSE attainment Source: Burgess et al (2009) Do teachers matter? Measuring the variation in teacher effectiveness in England Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours School

44 44 The most damaging behaviour of all to a young person’s prospects is disengagement from school, manifested in absence… Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours School GCSE attainment of persistent absentees There is a penalty of 3 GCSE points for a 1% increase in absence over the Key Stage 6 points = 1 grade in 1 GCSE subject Therefore 8% increase in absence over the key stage is equivalent to the FSM penalty (25 points) Persistent absence from school is costly and damaging to educational outcomes… …and young people who play truant are more likely to be NEET for longer durations Association between NEET duration and truancy in year 11 Source: DCSF internal analysis, LSYPE

45 45 …with disengagement clearly associated with earlier poor attitudes towards school. Impact of school enjoyment on outcomes Source: Chowdry et al. (2009), Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success - Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. DCSF-RR102 Young Person’s Attitudes and Behaviours School Children that enjoy school perform better at KS4, even when accounting for prior attainment and are significantly less likely to engage in risky and anti-social behaviour Children who are bullied perform worse than children who are not bullied and are more likely to experience behavioural problems… …but are no more likely to truant… Solid filled bars are significant at p<0.01, stippled bars at p<0.05 and unfilled bars n/s.

46 46 Contents Introduction Context – Trends in Youth Development Drivers in Successful Youth Transitions Where Policy Intervenes Principles from the Evidence

47 47 This section looks at how current policy intervention acts on each of those drivers to produce better and more equal outcomes. Childhood Prior Attainment Adulthood Parental AttitudesFamily ResourcesFriends and PeersCommunitySchool Young Person's Attitudes and Behaviours Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Economic Outcomes Policy interventions

48 48 Most of the social gradients in adolescent development are associated with gaps generated in earlier childhood… Feinstein, L (1999) The relative economic importance of academic, psychological and behavioural attributes developed in childhood Source: Feinstein (2003). “Inequality in the Early Cognitive Development of British Children in the 1970 Cohort,” Economica, p Blanden and Machin (2007) Recent Changes in Intergenerational Mobility *Gregg and Macmillan (2009) Family Income and Education in the Next Generation: Exploring the income gradients in education for the current cohorts of youth. CMPO Working Paper 09/223 Percentage of 26 year olds attaining educational and vocational qualifications by quartile position in early development scores at age 5 High performing five year-olds are much more likely to attain higher qualifications at 26 Evidence from the 1970 birth cohort shows social class gaps open early, and continue to widen… …and although there is evidence that the link between parental income and outcomes is weakening slightly*, data from children born in 2000 suggest the same phenomenon is still occurring Childhood Prior Attainment percentage High SES, High Ability Low SES, High Ability High SES, Low Ability Low SES, Low Ability

49 49 …but there is plenty of scope for progress in adolescence. What young people and their parents do, how they think and how they act has an important bearing on their life trajectory. Explaining the gap between the poorest and the richest at age 16: decomposition analysis Differences in prior attainment explain about 60 per cent of the gap in test scores between young people from rich and poor families. Family background factors (including parental education) account for only a relatively small fraction of the attainment gap between young people from rich and poor families. This suggests that the effect of parental education and family background on attainment at age 16 works largely through its influence on attainment by age 11. Differences in parental and young people’s attitudes and behaviours captured at ages 14 and 16 together explain roughly one quarter of the gap in GCSE results between young people from rich and poor families Goodman and Gregg [eds] (2010) Children’s educational outcomes: the role of attitudes and behaviours, from early childhood to late adolescence. Childhood Prior Attainment

50 50 Specific interventions tackle the increasing social gradient that occurs post-14 through each of the drivers identified. Where Policy Intervenes Childhood Prior Attainment Adulthood Parental AttitudesFamily ResourcesFriends and PeersCommunitySchool Young Person's Attitudes and Behaviours Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Economic Outcomes Helping post-16 transitions Preventing Disengagement Technological Access Tackling Risky Behaviours Developing social and emotional attributes

51 51 Specific interventions tackle the increasing social gradient that occurs post-14 through each of the drivers identified. Where Policy Intervenes Childhood Prior Attainment Adulthood Parental AttitudesFamily ResourcesFriends and PeersCommunitySchool Young Person's Attitudes and Behaviours Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Economic Outcomes Preventing Disengagement

52 52 Much of the additional social gradient in outcomes generated during adolescence is associated with falling aspiration and disengagement. Ross, A. (2009) Disengagement from education among year olds. DCSF-RR178. Chowdry, H. et al. (2009), Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success - Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. DCSF-RR102 Where Policy Intervenes There is no social gradient for young people who have rising aspirations, but there is a strong social gradient for those with falling aspirations… …and children with greater educational aspiration tend to perform better in school, and have fewer behavioural issues. Impact of higher education aspirations on outcomes Percentage of young people changing their HE aspirations between 14 and 16 Many young people first their gain Level 2 qualification between ages 16 and 19. This underlines that young people can achieve and that early disengaging young people are failing to reach their potential. Effect size (% of standard deviation) for KS4; Marginal percentage point effect for other outcomes percentage

53 53 This disengagement is manifested through underachievement through Key Stage 4 Callanan, M. Kinsella, R. Graham, J. Turczuk, O. and Finch, S. (2009) Pupils with Declining Attainment at Key Stages 3 and 4: Profiles and impacts of underachievement and disengagement. DCSF Research Report 086 Where Policy Intervenes Percentage of young people in education and training: Under achievers vs. consistent achievers Young people whose attainment was average at KS3 but dropped in KS4 were more likely to be NEET or in JWT at than their counterparts who were low achievers at KS3. This suggests that a lack of engagement (driven by a range of factors) is a critical issue for post-16 participation and can be more important than attainment level alone. Disengagement can be sudden, triggered by an event or crisis, or a more gradual process.

54 54 …and without intervention, there is the risk of downward spirals Where Policy Intervenes Suzanne: Complete disengagement In Years 7 and 8 she had done well at school. As she got older she grew to dislike school. She had difficult relationships with some of her teachers and sometimes she couldn’t answer questions in class and this made her feel stupid. She had a good group of friends, but in Year 9, all her classes were split. Not being with her friends made her not want to go to class and it was at this point she began to truant. At the same time, outside of school, her parents split up. At first she only truanted a few days here and then she was truanting for whole weeks at a time. It was only half-way through Year 11 that the school contacted her dad about her attendance. The school let her drop some lessons and offered her extra classes. She did not go because the lessons were after school and she saw this as her time. When it finally came to her exams, she did not go to any of them because she felt she had missed too much. Pathway to Suzanne’s complete disengagement Source: NatCen (2009) Declining attainment between KS3 and KS4:Profiles, experiences and impacts of underachievement and disengagement

55 55 The evidence points to a range of factors to prevent disengagement or re-engage young people Evidence suggests that on-going and early intervention prior to Year 9 is crucial, and that re-engagement activity has more limited success Key success factors are: Where Policy Intervenes A case study with early intervention At KS3 ’Claire’ had been a high achiever. She was initially predicted ten A-C grade GCSEs. However, at KS4 she did not like a lot of the subjects on offer preferring more practical subjects. She would also have liked to have done business studies but this was not available. From Year 9 onwards she fell in with a new group of friends who did not go to her school and because they were truanting, she truanted so that she could be with them. As a result, she got further and further behind with her school work and lost touch with the friends she had at school and this in turn made it more difficult for her to go back. Despite this, support from her family and the help of an Educational Welfare Officer helped her re-engage with school in Year 11 where she also got help from a school mentor to catch-up with what she had missed. With this help she achieved 5 GCSE passes, 4 of them at A-C. ‘Claire’ now 18, is working full-time. Schools working with parents Positive relationships with teachers Study supportEngaging curriculum Supervision of homework Preventing bullying Extra-curricula activities Sources: NatCen (2009) Declining attainment between KS3 and KS4:Profiles, experiences and impacts of underachievement and disengagement Ross, A. (2009) Disengagement from education among year olds. DCSF-RR178.

56 56 Specific interventions tackle the increasing social gradient that occurs post-14 through each of the drivers identified. Where Policy Intervenes Childhood Prior Attainment Adulthood Parental AttitudesFamily ResourcesFriends and PeersCommunitySchool Young Person's Attitudes and Behaviours Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Economic Outcomes Technological Access

57 57 While material differences between families are inevitable, effective policy can mitigate impact this has on adolescent outcomes. Much of the SES gap for the LSYPE cohort is associated with differential access to computers and the internet in the home. Something recent policy has sought to address through the home access programme. Differences in 1 to 1 tuition too. Mitigated by personal additional support to those at risk of under- achievement Although evidence on whether financial constraint prevents post-16 participation in learning is mixed, the introduction of EMA enabled participation to increase from less advantaged families to rise relatively much faster. Where Policy Intervenes Access to material resources by socio- economic position Chowdry, H. et al. (2009), Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success - Evidence from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. DCSF-RR102 percentage

58 58 Specific interventions tackle the increasing social gradient that occurs post-14 through each of the drivers identified. Where Policy Intervenes Childhood Prior Attainment Adulthood Parental AttitudesFamily ResourcesFriends and PeersCommunitySchool Young Person's Attitudes and Behaviours Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Economic Outcomes Tackling Risky Behaviours

59 59 Young people at risk of harm who are in contact with support services are under-achieving the most… Where Policy Intervenes 17% of 15 year olds had been in contact with the police, educational welfare or social services, with young people engaging in the most risky behaviours are most likely to be in contact with institutions and agencies. These young people are those who experience loss of educational attainment, particularly so if social services or other institutions beyond the school are involved (though causality could run in either direction) Those saying they engaged in some risky behaviours but not in extra contact with institutions do not seem to suffer an educational penalty. Contact with different services by number of risky behaviours Impact on attainment from risky behaviours and contact with services Source: LSYPE, internal analysis. SS=Social Services; EW=Educational Welfare.

60 60 Remedial action does not seem as effective as prevention, since despite institutional support those engaged in multiple risky behaviours still suffer attainment penalties. Where Policy Intervenes Prevention Remedy Unstructured socialising activities associated with increased tendency to engage in risky behaviours. Difficult to reverse participation in risky behaviours, but ‘positive activities’ may prevent further activities being taken up. Increasing/taking-up self-development activity may have some benefits, and is associated with 2+ GCSE Grades progress. What matters most around risky behaviours is not engaging in them from outset. The most important anchor points to effective policy intervention are: young person’s attitude to school; the relationships with family; and the influence of peers Participation in self-development activities associated with reduced risky behaviours socialising activities (just hanging out around town / going out with friends) associated with increased risky behaviours). So important to encourage desired activities – e.g. youth facilities policies; positive activities. Cebulla, A & Tomaszewski, W (2009) Risky Behaviour and Social Activities, DCSF Research Report 173.

61 61 Specific interventions tackle the increasing social gradient that occurs post-14 through each of the drivers identified. Where Policy Intervenes Childhood Prior Attainment Adulthood Parental AttitudesFamily ResourcesFriends and PeersCommunitySchool Young Person's Attitudes and Behaviours Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Economic Outcomes Helping post-16 transitions

62 62 Young people need information, advice and guidance to help them plan successful transitions to adulthood. Where Policy Intervenes Navigating transition points, such as from school to post-16 learning notably has potential to deflect young people away from their intentions. This is particularly true for those continuing post-16 learning in routes outside of school. Many young people are able to access advice about planning for the future from parents and wider social networks. But access to such resources is not universal, so schools and other institutions have a pivotal role. Frequency of talking about plans for future study Year 9 Percentage of YP in activities at 16/17 still in same activity at 17/18 Young people from lower SEC group are over-represented in this routes. Source: LSYPE Waves 1 and 5 and YCS Cohort 13, Sweep 2 percentage

63 63 Specific interventions tackle the increasing social gradient that occurs post-14 through each of the drivers identified. Where Policy Intervenes Childhood Prior Attainment Adulthood Parental AttitudesFamily ResourcesFriends and PeersCommunitySchool Young Person's Attitudes and Behaviours Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Social and emotional skills Cognitive Skills Economic Outcomes Developing social and emotional attributes

64 64 What employers identify as weaknesses in personal attributes of young people entering the labour market are of growing importance and contribute to social gradients. Jackson, M., Goldthorpe, J. H. and Mills, C. (2005), ‘Education, Employers and Class Mobility’, Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 23: Where Policy Intervenes A high proportion of job adverts explicitly seek these attributes rather than specific functional skills e.g. only 26% of adverts explicitly or implicitly asked for qualifications. This demand, coupled with distributional differences in these attributes is believed to play a major part in the social gradients that persist in employment and earnings of young adults. They are the same attributes that earlier we showed help mediate educational attainment. Whereas trajectories of childhood cognitive development become largely fixed at early age, evidence suggests that ability in social and emotional behaviours remains malleable later in life and is plastic all through adolescence. Social & Emotional Aspects of Learning (SEAL) Behaviour & Attendance Pilots, Personal, Learning and Thinking Skills and PSHE are school-based interventions which could help improve social and emotional attributes. Evaluation results for SEAL in secondary schools is not yet available and the evidence on impact of such programmes in general remains relatively under- developed (we’re investing in evaluations to find out more about what works). Personal tutors increase pupils’ self-confidence (Bullock & Wikeley (2008)). Provision of study support can benefit pupils’ motivation, behaviour and attitudes to learning (MacBeath et al. (2001), MORI (2004)). Engagement in self-development “positive” activities can help to reduce participation in risky behaviours. …but we don’t yet know how to intervene fully effectively here. Social and emotional attributes matter… MacBeath, J. et al (2001) The Impact of Study Support DfES Research Report 273 MORI (2004) Study Support Survey. DfES Research Report 591

65 65 Contents Introduction Context – Trends in Youth Development Drivers in Successful Youth Transitions Where Policy Intervenes Principles from the Evidence

66 66 Five principles that emerge from the evidence Principles from the evidence Be inclusive but proportionate Use the strongest drivers and levers Relevant & responsive Engaging and enriching Use opportunities and incentives

67 67 Be inclusive but proportionate All young people have some needs Prevention better than cure Precision of targeting Some young people have greater needs than others. This is particularly true for young people not able to benefit from the full range of support that many take for granted from their parents and wider families. We know policies aimed at keeping young people on positive trajectories are currently more effective than those rectifying observed poor outcomes. Supporting those at risk of poor outcomes implies either a degree of universal help or very good targeting is a major current challenge that creates high deadweight and detracts from cost-effectiveness. Principles from the evidence

68 68 Use the strongest drivers and levers Young people do not live in a vacuum. There are many influences on the attitudes and behaviours of young people, both positive and negative. Parents remain the most important influence for young people. Nurturing family relationships, not just for younger children, remains an essential bond to protect adolescents’ well-being and development. In isolation, the impact of schools and other institutions is much weaker. However, it will remain an important influencing medium for young people estranged from their families. The importance of this transmission mechanism is only likely to increase in the future as young people live for longer at the parental home Principles from the evidence

69 69 Be relevant and responsive. Adolescents often don’t lead ordered, neatly sequenced lives. This creates challenges in providing support when they need help, rather than when the system wants to provide help. The states and activities of young people are often very dynamic – for instance the average duration of a period of being NEET is only 2 months. This means support needs to be nimble if it is to tackle real need rather than the ghost of problems past. Dynamism creates a lot of activity, so policy needs to be discerning about what problems justify intervention and which will self-rectify or be tackled in the family. One solution may be to better develop the decision-making capacity of young people, so that they are better equipped to make informed choices for themselves and know when to seek out support. Principles from the evidence

70 70 Engaging and enriching. Adolescence should be enjoyable. Young people already worry a lot about growing up, so it’s important not to add to that by being heavy- handed and impose lots of restrictions. Policy ought to enrich their lives not take away liberties. Giving young people a voice in asking what they want and would helps them not only produces better policy but by respecting and empowering them assists their development. Young people most value experiential learning in deciding future choices. That experiential learning also extends into other domains of adolescent behaviour, some of which society finds less acceptable. Policy needs a better framework for determining what the harms are to both individuals and to society, both in the immediate and in the future, to guide when and how to intervene. Principles from the evidence

71 71 Use opportunities and incentives More carrot than stick. Simply ordering young people not to do something is ineffective and often disrespectful. There is scope to minimise potential exposure to harmful activities and behaviours by imaginatively creating alternative, more attractive opportunities for young people to engage is positive activities. Principles from the evidence

72 72 Next Steps Better schools -Your child, your schools, our future: building a 21st century schools system Ensuring all people get the qualifications they need – Raising Expectations: staying in education and training post-16 IAG Strategy - Quality, Choice and Aspiration - A strategy for young people's information, advice and guidance NEET Delivery Plan - Raising the Participation Age: supporting local areas to deliver Social development – Support for all: Families and Relationships Green Paper. Positive activities - Aiming High for Young People: 10 Year Youth Strategy Many of this conclusions from this evidence update support the direction of travel within recent major policy change for young people It is also clear that much remains to achieve our social goals. Further research stemming from this slide pack will be investigated further by DCSF’s new research centres to help formulate better, more efficient and effective, evidence- informed policy in the future. Principles from the evidence


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