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- 1 - EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' 'What is happening to heroin? Methodological challenges in.

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Presentation on theme: "- 1 - EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' 'What is happening to heroin? Methodological challenges in."— Presentation transcript:

1 - 1 - EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' 'What is happening to heroin? Methodological challenges in understanding trends in heroin production and supply‘ By Dr. Thomas Pietschmann Policy Analysis and Research Branch UNODC Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009

2 - 2 - Global opium poppy cultivation, Source: UNODC, 2008 World Drug Report, June 2008 and UNODC Surveys. -15%* * Preliminary estimates Comparisons: Greater London: 157,900 ha New York City: 95,300 ha Berlin: 89,200 ha Vienna: 41,500 ha Lisbon: City: 8,480 ha Metro: 295,740 ha Metro: 295,740 ha Mauritius: 204,000 ha Comoros: 186,200 ha Hong Kong: 109,500 ha Bahrain: 71,600 ha Malta: 31,600 ha Montenegro: 1,381,200 ha Jamaica: 1,099,100 ha Singapore: 682,700 ha Brunei Darussalam: 576,500 ha Cape Verde: 403,600 ha Luxembourg: 258,600 ha

3 - 3 - Global illicit opium production, Sources: UNODC, 2008 World Drug Report and UNODC 2008 Opium Surveys in Afghanistan, Myanmar, Laos. -6%* * Preliminary estimates.

4 - 4 - Survey methodology

5 - 5 - Methodology: Sampling approach combines analysis of satellite images and extensive field work Poppy cultivation estimate: IKONOS satellite images (4 m resolution in 2004; 1 m resolution in 2008) Sampling frame: 23 Landsat 7 satellite images (30 m resolution) Afghanistan Opium Survey: ground surveys ; satellite/ground surveys

6 - 6 - Irrigated agricultural land 4 km River Opium fields (artificial color) Low density area in Mihtarlam district, Laghman Province (4 m resolution satellite image IKONOS)

7 - 7 - OPIUM SURVEY Satellite survey: 21 provinces covered (up from 19 provinces in 2006), out of provinces covered (up from 19 provinces in 2006), out of survey blocks of 10 km x 10 km covered with total of 236 images 118 survey blocks of 10 km x 10 km covered with total of 236 images Very high resolution satellite images used (IKONOS); 1 m resolution Very high resolution satellite images used (IKONOS); 1 m resolution Village survey: All 34 provinces covered All 34 provinces covered 134 local field surveyors 134 local field surveyors 1,529 villages visited (4.9% of all villages) 1,529 villages visited (4.9% of all villages) 1,529 village headmen and 3,050 farmers interviewed (socio-economic) 1,529 village headmen and 3,050 farmers interviewed (socio-economic) Basis for poppy cultivation estimate for 13 provinces not covered by satellite imagery Basis for poppy cultivation estimate for 13 provinces not covered by satellite imagery ERADICATION VERIFICATION SURVEY: All 17 provinces with reported Governor-led eradication covered All 17 provinces with reported Governor-led eradication covered 131 eradication verifiers and 27 eradication survey coordinators 131 eradication verifiers and 27 eradication survey coordinators Survey methodology (2008)

8 - 8 - Sampling frame and selected cells for satellite survey, 2008 Sampling frame (arable land): based on Landsat-7 images (2002/03) and Landsat-7 EMT 2006 Coverage: 7% of arable land in 21 provinces Opium poppy identification: based on 236 high- resolution (1m) satellite images (IKONOS; 10*10 km 2 ) for 118 locations covering 21 provinces Higher proportions in key provinces: Nangarhar: 25% Nimroz: 18% Kandahar: 13% Helmand: 16% Accuracy of identification: 95% - ground truthing of 3560 fields Result: 157,000 ha 90% probability: 130,000 ha - 190,000 ha

9 - 9 - Village sampling frame and selected villages, 2008 Sampling frame (all villages): 31,230 Selected villages: 1,529 (4.9%) in 357 districts Interviews: 3,050 farmers and 1,529 headmen on various socio- economic issues by 134 field surveyors and ground survey in 13 provinces

10 Opium poppy cultivation trends in Afghanistan, Soviet periodWarlord periodTaliban periodnew Afghan Govt. ? -19% Sources: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008 and UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009.

11 Increase in poppy free provinces provinces in ………… ……………. 2008

12 Regional dynamics of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan (ha), Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008

13 % in 7 provinces of south & south-western Afghanistan Afghanistan – opium poppy cultivation in 2008 Area under poppy cultivation: 157,000 ha Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008

14 Opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (Rapid Assessment) Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009

15 Strong positive correlation between security and non-cultivation of opium in 2009 Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009

16 Opium, morphine and heroin production

17 Yield Survey Yield measurement (data for 2008): 17,541 capsules from 1,707 plots from 569 fields in 198 villages Yield: 42.5 kg/ha in % CI: kg/ha 48.8 kg/ha in % CI: kg/ha Yield (Y): based on non-rectangular hyperbola: VC: Mature poppy capsule volume (cm 3 /m 2 ) Total production Total production: 8,200 tons in % CI: 7,530-8,960 tons 7,700 tons in % CI: 6,330-9,310 tons

18 Afghanistan opium production, % Soviet periodWarlord periodTaliban periodnew Afghan Govt. ? Sources: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008 and UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009.,

19 % (= 4,438 tons of opium) refined in Afghanistan required: some 11,000 tons of chemicals incl. 1,200 tons of acetic anhydride (range: 630–2,520 tons of acetic anhydride) Manufacturing of Afghan morphine/heroin in 2008 Opium produced: 7,676 tons less seizures: 123 tons less consumption: 156 tons Available for export: 7,397 tons 630 tons of morphine / heroin for export 7:1 ratio Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008

20 Laboratories, markets, border crossings, 2008

21 Opiate prices

22 Opium production and fresh farm-gate prices, Prices Production Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008 Indication of stocks Price information collected from some 3,000 farmers in some 1,500 villages across the country

23 Dry opium prices at trader level in Nangarhar and Kandahar, March 1997-March 2009 $102 $73 July 2000 poppy ban announced Sept 11, 2001Jan 02: New poppy ban Aug 02: renewal of poppy ban Autumn 2004; Fear of large-scale eradication Growing opium production in southern Afghanistan (2005, 2006, 2007; stable in 2008); rising stocks, : Eastern Afghanistan: reductions of opium production Growing opium harvests in 2002, 2003 and 2004 Start of air strikes 1999 peak production in 1990s 2006/2007: Eastern Afghanistan: rise in opium production Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years

24 Average dry opium prices in Afghanistan, October 2004-March % -15% -23% -1% Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years Information collected each month from some 200 farmers and some 190 traders in 15 provinces (out of 34 provinces)

25 Dry opium prices in Afghanistan, January March 2009 Trend towards “unification” of Afghan opium market Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years

26 Gross income per hectare of opium poppy / wheat, Average crop production costs in 2008 Opium * : 45% of farmgate value Wheat: 20% of farmgate value Average net income: Opium: $ 2,585 per ha Wheat: $ 1,300 per ha Ratio (opium : wheat) 2 : 1 Ratio 27 : 1 Ratio 9.5 : 1 Ratio 3 : 1 Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008 * Costs for seeds, ploughing, weeding, fertilizers, lancing & opium collection

27 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January Prices of opium and foods grains in Afghanistan in January 2008 and January 2009

28 Dry opium and heroin prices in Afghanistan, January March 2009 January March 2009: Heroin (Afg.) - 31% ($2,203) Opium: -43% Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years Herat: - 59% ($1,602) Kandahar: - 47% ($ 2,320) Takhar: - 29% ($ 2,097) Nangarhar: - 23% ($ 1,817) Badakshan: - 13% ($ 2,383) Balkh: + 15% ($ 3,000) Peshawar (Pak.) - 7% ($ 3,101)

29 Export routes and value in best estimates CENTRAL ASIA 15%; range 5%-22% 121 tons of heroin (19%; 8%-25%) 293 tons of opium (10%; 1%-18%) (US$ 0.5 bn) PAKISTAN 27%; range 18%-35% 258 tons morphine & heroin (41%; 28%-51%) 202 tons opium (7%; 3%-11%) (US$ 0.9 bn) AFGHANISTAN’S EXPORTS 630 tons of morphine & heroin 2,960 tons of opium (US$ 3.4 bn) (Range: $2.7–$4.3 bn) IRAN 57%; range 48%-65% 246 tons of morphine & heroin (39%; 32%-44%) 2,464 tons of opium (83%; 71%-96%) (US$ 2.0 bn)

30 Trafficking from Afghanistan to Europe, 2008 Sources: UNODC, 2008 Afghanistan Opium Survey, UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data / DELTA, UNODC, Individual Drug Seizures database.

31 Heroin and morphine seizures in 2007 in countries along the main Afghan opiate routes to Europe and to other main destination countries Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data / DELTA. 79% 10%11%

32 Heroin and morphine seizures in West and Central Europe and along the extended ‘Balkan route’, IRAN: Heroin seizures: 13.3 tons in 2007;19.8 tons in 2008 (Source: Drug Control Headquarters) TURKEY: Heroin seizures: 9.1 tons in 2007; 10.3 tons in 2008 (Source: Ministry of Interior) Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data.

33 Heroin and morphine seizures along the Northern Route (Silk Route), Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data.

34 Additional information requirements: More systematic and detailed information on transformation ratios of opium to morphine and heroin (improved cooperation with Afghan authorities, DEA, and international coalition forces in Afghanistan); Better information on stocks and on trafficking flows (UNODC in cooperation with national authorities); Systematic price and purity monitoring in countries around Afghanistan (Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia) – planned to be done under the auspices of UNODC; Systematic price and purity monitoring along main trafficking routes to Europe (Turkey, Balkan countries, key EU consumer countries) – to be undertaken by EMCDDA in cooperation with UNODC? Improvements of Member States (including European Member States) reporting of individual drug seizures (as required under the international drug conventions) and sharing of strategic intelligence information ; (cooperation with WCO and Interpol as well as with Europol/EMCDDA); Updated information on extent of heroin use and on per capita consumption in consumer countries (current cooperation between UNODC and the European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research – to be extended to EMCDDA?)

35 For more information: THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION


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