1. Biodiversity and Climate Change in relation to the Natura 2000 Network Mike Harley and Nikki Hodgson (AEA) Chantal van Ham (IUCN) Jeff Price (UNEP-WCMC) Graham Tucker (IEEP) Guus Keder (Axiom)

2. Abstract This project aims to provide the European Commission with an overview of the likely impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the European Union, particularly with regard to the N2K network of protected areas, and indications as to how the design and implementation of current policy might need to be adapted in order to ensure that the EU delivers its commitment to halt biodiversity loss by 2010 and beyond. The study will identify those species and habitats that are likely to be most vulnerable to climate change in Europe. A risk assessment framework specific to the N2K network will combine information on vulnerability with potential exposure to and intensity of climate change. This will inform the steps required to protect the integrity of the network and mitigate the negative effects of climate change on vulnerable species and habitats. The study will also provide support to the Commission with regard to the biodiversity impacts associated with specific climate change mitigation measures - wind parks, hydroelectric schemes and tidal barrages.

3. The Project Commissioned by DG Environment (Nature and Biodiversity) Eighteen month study (began January 2008) Four partners -AEA -Axiom -IUCN -UNEP-WCMC (with IEEP) Four ‘tasks’ -Review impacts of climate change on Europe’s biodiversity -Assess implications for EU ‘2010 and beyond’ target -Identify threats to N2K network -Examine effects of mitigation measures on biodiversity/N2K network

4. Task 1 Aim: Review current information on impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Europe Systematic review, synthesis and analysis of published material -Observed impacts -Projected impacts (A1 and B1 scenarios up to 2050s) Covers terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine environments -Nine biogeographical regions -Twenty three ‘broad’ habitat classes Considers how physical changes impact on species and habitats -Temperature, precipitation, sea level rise and ocean acidification -Extreme events -Species movement/extinction and habitat change/loss -Key messages and evidence gaps

5. Biogeographical Regions of the EU

6. Task 2 Aim: Assess the likely impacts of climate change on the ability of the EU to halt biodiversity loss by 2010 and beyond Assessment of potential impacts and vulnerability -Identify species and habitats for assessment (from Task1) -Develop impact assessment framework -Develop vulnerability assessment framework -Run impact and vulnerability assessments -List vulnerable species and habitats Assessment of policy implications -Apply outputs of impact/vulnerability assessments -Examine EU biodiversity conservation commitments -Examine other EU policies affecting biodiversity conservation -Make recommendations for policy adjustment -Identify opportunities for increasing policy coherence

7. Impact and Vulnerability Assessments Impact assessmentVulnerability assessment Climate exposureClimate impact Sensitivity Adaptive capacity lowhighlow high resilient vulnerable high climate impact

8. Task 3 Aim: Assess the impacts of climate change on the Natura 2000 network Vulnerability assessment of N2K sites (using Task 2 framework) -Identify most vulnerable habitats of Community interest -Identify most vulnerable species of Community interest -Identify N2K sites containing most vulnerable species/habitats Conservation policy analysis -Identify steps to protect coherence of N2K network -Recommend measures to maintain/restore FCS of component species/habitats

9. Task 4 Aim: Examine climate change mitigation measures and their impact on biodiversity – with specific reference to wind parks, hydroelectric schemes and tidal barrages Assess impacts of mitigation technologies on biodiversity -On/offshore wind parks -Hydroelectric schemes -Tidal barrages Review planning regime in relation to N2K sites -Habitats Directive (Article 6) -Environmental Impact Assessment Directive Identify measures to reduce impacts on N2K sites -Profile of options -New technical innovations Develop ‘best practice’ guidelines -Technical guidelines -Policy recommendations

10. Related Projects Two key projects funded by DG Research MACIS (Minimisation of and adaptation to climate change impacts on biodiversity) -Coordinator: Ingolf Kuehn, UFZ, DE -http://www.macis-project.net/links.htmlhttp://www.macis-project.net/links.html ALARM (Assessing large scale environmental risks for biodiversity with tested methods) -Coordinator: Josef Settele, UFZ, DE -http://www.alarmproject.net/alarm/http://www.alarmproject.net/alarm/