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Purple Market Research at INSIGHT 2006 November 2006 OLD MEETS NEW : using the Delphi Method to research the latest technology.

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Presentation on theme: "Purple Market Research at INSIGHT 2006 November 2006 OLD MEETS NEW : using the Delphi Method to research the latest technology."— Presentation transcript:

1 Purple Market Research at INSIGHT 2006 November 2006 OLD MEETS NEW : using the Delphi Method to research the latest technology

2 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 2 1.What is the Delphi Method? 2.How can it be applied to market research? 3.Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market 4.Applications and benefits

3 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 3 1.What is the Delphi Method? 2.How can it be applied to market research? 3.Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market 4.Applications and benefits

4 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 4 Origins of the Delphi Method Originated in the Delphic Oracle Technique for eliciting and combining judgements systematically from a group of experts Adopted by science and technology for forecasting (e.g. Rand Corporation)

5 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 5 The Delphi Method uses the Hegelian dialectic process… THESIS ANTITHESIS SYNTHESIS

6 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 6 Putting it another way… Hypothesis presented by facilitator Reactions of expert panel Analysis of responses

7 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 7 Process goes through a number of rounds before final consensus formed Initial view presented by facilitator Reactions of expert panel Analysis of responses Final consensus

8 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 8 When is Delphi Method suitable? Researching a new technology or science when trend extrapolation unreliable When there is little available data When the data available is inconsistent When the topic is amorphous When a topic is complex and difficult to explore by empirical means

9 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 9 1.What is the Delphi Method? 2.How can it be applied to market research? 3.Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market 4.Applications and benefits

10 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 10 Applications in market research  Forecasting  Estimating current market size  Profiling markets – key segments, key players, market shares, regional analysis  Estimating market trends

11 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 11 When is Delphi Method suitable? When there is little available data When the data available is inconsistent When the topic is amorphous When a topic is complex and difficult to explore by empirical means Also…when the budget is limited

12 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 12 Applying the Delphi Method to market research Initial view presented by facilitator Reactions of expert panel Analysis of responses Final consensus

13 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 13 Methods employed  Focus groups / workshops  Personal interviews  Telephone interviews  Online /  …Usually a mix of the above  Secondary desk research  Internal workshops  Initial qualitative interviews Testing Hypothesis

14 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 14 1.What is the Delphi Method? 2.How can it be applied to market research? 3.Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market 4.Applications and benefits

15 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 15 Our case study: the European digital signage market To better understand the European digital signage market and thereby assist strategic planning - Estimate the size of the European market - Identify key applications – current and future - Identify key players and market shares - Determine distribution channels & decision making process - Determine market trends - Identify market opportunities for Denon Client Product Business objective Research objectives Digital signage media player

16 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 16 What is digital signage? ‘The use of digitally connected signs – plasma displays, LCD’s, kiosk stations, computer monitors & televisions – to replace and enhance traditional media, with all play out content (advertising or information) being centrally or remotely managed and scheduled’

17 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 17 What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure? It’s new and not well documented…

18 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 18 What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure? There is little standardisation… Digital signage? Narrowcasting? Captive Audience Networks / CAN?

19 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 19 What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure? Structure is complex and different analyses include different elements (and double counting?)…

20 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 20 What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure? Data available is incomplete and inconsistent…

21 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 21 The Delphi Method in action Estimated market size and profile based on desk research Reactions of expert panel via telephone interviews / s Analysis of responses & refinement of hypothesis Final consensus

22 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 22 Forming an hypothesis through desk research – firstly market value Global estimates: Digital signage market (retail only): US$800m Whole digital signage market: US$1.6bn USA estimates: Digital signage market: US$600m European estimates for digital signage market: UK: 200m euros Germany: displays worth 25m euros…assuming displays are 20% of costs overall digital signage market worth 120m euros Netherlands: 60m euros

23 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 23 Other useful information collected in desk research… Breakdown of project costs Also… Main OEM’s Units sold / market shares (provisional) Main distributors and distribution channels Applications / key target sectors

24 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 24 Who was in our panel of experts? Denon Professional Other OEM’s Distributors & installers Trade media / industry commentators Trade associations (e.g. PLASA, POPAI)

25 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 25 Methods employed  Personal interviews  Telephone interviews  Online /  Secondary desk research  Workshops / consultation within Denon Testing Hypothesis

26 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 26 Key deliverables from research Other deliverables:  Main OEM’s & market share  Distributors & installers  Key applications – retail, hospitality, transport, etc  Trends and growth applications  Opportunities for Denon Total European market value: 500m euros Value of media player market: 100m euros

27 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 27 1.What is the Delphi Method? 2.How can it be applied to market research? 3.Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market 4.Applications and benefits

28 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 28  Research to gauge potential market for online Health & Safety consultancy service  Analysis of commercial catering market in non-mains gas areas  Potential for LPG consultancy service  Analysis of use of LPG in housing market  Estimating the size and profile of the market for entertainment technology Examples of other successful applications…

29 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 29 Applying the Delphi Method  Part of a wider research project – combined with other research…  …or a stand alone project  Appropriate for analysing markets that are poorly documented / complex

30 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 30 Benefits of using Delphi Method  A robust alternative to quantitative research  Objective  Simple and explicit  Cost effective

31 USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY 31 THANK YOU


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