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1 The Importance of Sustainability Owen Cligg- United Oilseeds Trading Manager 02/02/2012
World Consumption of Oils and Fats
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EU: Use of biofuels/mineral fuels (mln t) Projection Source: EIA, F.O. Licht, ACTI RED: 10 % Target Share of biofuels Total fuel use Mineral fuel Biofuel Biofuel share (Volume)
Vegetable oil stocks comparatively low
7 EU Oilseed rape changes up to harvest 2011
8 UK Supply and Demand 2011/12 2011/12 Opening stocks 0.04 Production 2.75 Imports 0.01 Total supply 2.8 ADM 1.20 Cargill Liverpool 0.55 Cargill Hull 0.20 Compound 0.15 Total use 2.1 Exports 0.65 Ending balance 0.05
UK Oilseed Rape Demand 9
Export facilities used by United Oilseeds
11 Market Update UK Rapeseed Area & Yields Area (Th Ha) Yield (T ha) Crop (Mn T) 2012 760 3.5 2.66 2011 705 3.9 2.75 2010 637 3.5 2.23 2009 578 3.4 1.97 2008 603 3.28 1.98 2007 670 3.11 2.09 2006 593 3.19 1.89 2005 510 3.72 1.90 2004 534 3.01 1.61 2003 492 3.59 1.77
Volatility REMAINS SUPPLY CONCERNS DEMAND UNCERTAINITIES EXACERBATED BY FUND SPECULATION
Bullish argument Low US stocks of corn and soya Low stocks of osr Lower EU osr production Demand for sustainable osr for biofuel South American weather Crude oil price
Bearish argument High prices ration demand High prices encourage extra production World may go back into recession
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2.10% more children born Die 0.2 years sooner Spend 95.53% less money on health care No class divide 60.84% less electricity 84.40% less oil.
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