Presentation on theme: "The Regional Advantage: What the New Manufacturing Location Calculus Implies for the Economy of the Northeast Susan Christopherson"— Presentation transcript:
The Regional Advantage: What the New Manufacturing Location Calculus Implies for the Economy of the Northeast Susan Christopherson
Why the Northeast’s Regional Manufacturing Assets Are Central to National Export Strategy I.What is happening in manufacturing location? Why is it happening? I.What is the regional advantage in this new location calculus? II. National support for regional industrial strengths I. Assets trump averages
A Manufacturing Rebound? Why is manufacturing returning? What does a manufacturing location reassessment mean for the UK ? How can a regional economy – the Northeast - build on its natural geographic and industrial advantages to attract manufacturing?
What is the Explanation in the UK? How Does it Differ in the US? The UK explanation for modest but better performance in manufacturing focuses strongly on ability to reduce labor costs. “ (In the UK) The recession provided most companies with an opportunity to carry out radical restructuring, implement cost reduction strategies, improve supply chain agility and renegotiate previous contractual commitments. These strategies allowed margins to be protected and have provided a strong base for growth.” PWC, 2012 The US explanation focuses on total cost calculations with labor cost of minimal significance.
What Evidence Do We Have? Exports are up Manufacturing employment has bucked recessionary trend Analyses by major consulting firms assess comparative costs
Exports Have Led Out of Recession
The Northeast is Central to UK Export Potential
Some US Evidence/Indicators
The US Case: Capital Goods and Industrial Supply Exports are Moving Up
Manufacturing has Led US Out of the Recession
The US Explanation for Why This is Happening Now Gradual and anticipated increases in transport costs Lower wages in the US; higher wages in China Appreciation of Chinese currency Labor is a smaller portion of total production cost Recognition of potential supply chain disruption risks Problems with quality control and intellectual property in China Lower energy costs in US from natural gas development
A New Focus on Total Cost Supplier Price and Terms Other Costs Operations & Quality Costs Delivery Costs Unit Price Labor Direct materials Management Overhead Capital Amortization Local taxes Manufacturing Local regulatory compliance Logistics In-country transport Ocean/air freight Destination transport Packaging In-plant Material Inventory Intra-plant demand Safety stock Handling Overhead Warehousing & O/H Standard Risk Qualification Local tax incentives Terms Net payment Volume Discounts Free Goods Region Specific Duty VAT Supply Chain Inventory maintained within Satellite warehousing & O/H Quality Quality validation Quality management Failure costs Situational Procurement staff Broker fees Infrastructure Exchange rates Training Tooling/molds Customer Specific Unique services Unique capabilities Adapted from Archstone Consulting
Sample Total Cost Comparison Potential US Cost/Productivity Advantages Chinese unit price$70 U.S. unit price$100 # units/year12,000 unit weight, lbs2 Shipments/year6 product life, yrs5 Packaging*1% Payment on shipment Yes Quality*2% Product liability risk*0.5% IP risk*1.9% Innovation*0.5% Trips/yr2 Carrying cost, rate22% Emergency air freight %*5% Wage inflation, annual*8% Currency appreciation, annual*5%
Estimates that Total Cost Comparisons Could Bring Back 25% Off-shored Manufacturing Percent of re-shoring initiative cases where US has a price advantage: 5% Percent of re-shoring initiative cases where US has total cost advantage: 53%
Where are US Cost Advantages Over China? Similar in the UK In serving domestic markets (both niche and mass): Example: Food Note the role of health and safety regulation In export markets: Examples: Aerospace Chemicals Machinery Medical Equipment
U.S. Manufacturing Competitiveness in Domestic Markets -60% -70% Semiconductors Textile Product Mills Furniture Leather Printing Nonmetallic Mineral Product Textile Mills Apparel Plastics 300% 200% 90% 80% Paper Electrical Eqpmt. Computer Eqpmt. Fabricated Metal Pharma. Appliances Electronics Primary Metal * Auto Final Assm. Bev. & Tobacco Other Transp. Eqpmt. Wood Product 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Medical Eqpmt. Machinery Food Petro/Coal Chemicals Aerospace 1) The U.S. cost advantage represents the labor and logistics costs compared with those of Chinese manufacturers, for products consumed by people in the United States. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, UBS Research, CapitalIQ, Energy Information Administration, World Bank, Eurostat, World Trade Organization, IRS Statistics, Tauber Institute for Global Operations, Booz & Company U.S. Manufacturing Positional Advantage for U.S. Demand High Low U.S. Mfg. Cost Advantage over China for Products Consumed in the US (1 ) Sectors on the Edge Niche Players Regional Powers Circle size = U.S. consumption Global Leaders
U.S. Manufacturing Competitiveness in Export Markets Paper Electrical Equipment Computer Equipment Fabricated Metals Pharmaceuticals Appliances Electronics Primary Metal Auto Vehicle Parts Food Machinery Medical Equipment Other Transportation Equipment Beverages & Tobacco Aerospace Chemicals -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% Petroleum / Coal -55% -60% -65% -70% Semiconductors Textile Product Mills Furniture Leather -50% Nonmetallic Mineral Product Wood Product Textile Mills Apparel Plastics Auto Final Assembly 290% -5% Printing 0% Circle size = U.S. consumption Global Leaders U.S. Manufacturing Advantage for Export High U.S. Mfg. Cost Advantage over China for Products Consumed in the China (1). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, UBS Research, CapitalIQ, Energy Information Administration, World Bank, Eurostat, World Trade Organization, IRS Statistics, Tauber Institute for Global Operations, Booz & Company
Is There a Regional Advantage in This New Location Calculus? What is it for the Northeast?
Many Older Industrial Regions in US are Doing Well Spurce Sources: The Brookings Institution The Rockefeller Institute Blue = Metro areas not specialized in manufacturing Green = strongly specialized Yellow = very strongly specialized Red = highly specialized
Two Visions of the Northeast
Some Key Advanced Manufacturing and Enabling Technologies That Have Emerged in the Northeast Automotive – Low carbon vehicles Renewable Energy – Off-shore wind Chemicals and process industries – Bio and specialty chemicals Engineering services – automotive, aerospace and marine Oil and gas – subsea technologies Logistics
What are Critical Connections for Regional Economic Development? Labor force improvement connections are critical to potential re- shoring firms, especially given importance of labor quality to their decision-making. Logistics connections to intermodal facilities will be critical. Also, Heartland connections to ports. Technological advances in logistics will be increasingly important … not just to the transportation industries, but to the recovery of manufacturing. Supply chain connections that strengthen regional comparative advantage. Connections with the next generation of leaders.
The Regional Advantage What the New Manufacturing Location Calculus Implies for the Economy of the Northeast Susan Christopherson
Additional slides below not in presentation
What is happening in manufacturing location? Why is it happening?
The Steel Industry Case What Happens When We Look at Comparative Costs for Labor, Inventory and Transportation Costs for Steel Products Used in US? According to a PWC analysis, between 2006 and 2010 … Chinese labor costs remain considerably lower, but the gap is decreasing. The difference in transportation cost -- ocean shipping costs of raw materials and ﬁnal goods -- increasingly favors the US as fuel prices rise. Carrying costs – the raw materials inventory needed to maintain production, and the ﬁnal goods inventory needed to serve customers (factoring time-in-transit and a margin for contingencies), plus the cost of ﬁnancing those inventories -- significantly favor US steel production.
Prominent Examples among Steel Producers and Users US crude steel production increased more than 7% in 2011, while consumption increased around 11% during the same period. (http://www.worldsteel.org) It is expected that the trend will continue due to the increase in consumption from various industrial sectors. Caterpillar, is building a plant to make excavating equipment in Texas, tripling its capacity for such equipment in the U.S. Ford is repatriating 2,000 jobs from China
Labor Skills Shortage is Complicated and Differs Among Regions and Industries “Ready to work” skills may be missing. A mismatch between general skills taught in technical schools and the specific skills companies are demanding. Technical training on specialized equipment is expensive. Wages for skilled advanced manufacturing jobs are too low in some regions to induce skilled workers to move. Wages for machinists and tool & die occupations are down across the state.