Presentation on theme: "Mathematics and Social Research in the Scottish Government Clare Leadbetter Research Officer"— Presentation transcript:
Mathematics and Social Research in the Scottish Government Clare Leadbetter Research Officer
My Background Mature Student BSc in Mathematics and Computing Science MSc in Social Research Methods Health informatics researcher – Cancer Care Research Centre University of Stirling Quantitative researcher – Commonwealth Games Legacy Team, Communities Analytical Services
Applications of mathematics in my job Analysing human behaviour through a predictive modelling tool (regression techniques) Analysing the domains that make up the physical activity measurement Looking at trends/patterns in the data Statistically significant differences evidence being used to inform policy
Statistical Software SPSS SAS Excel proc surveymeans data=work.shesTemp12; where age>=16 and hrsman10>=0; var hrsman10 ; domain ag16g10; strata strata; cluster psu; weight int12wt; format sex sex.; title "Mean hours spent per week on manual work"; run; Compute ad10hwk=-5. IF (housewrk=2 or hwrklist=2 or hevyhwrk=2)ad10hwk=0. IF (range(heavyday,1,28) AND range(hwtim,10,800)) ad10hwk=heavyday. IF range (hwtim,0,9) ad10hwk=0. IF any(-9,HrsHhw,Minhhw)|any(-8,HrsHhw,Minhhw) ad10hwk=-8. IF any(-9,housewrk, hwrklist, hevyhwrk, heavyday, hwtim) ad10hwk=-9. IF any(-8,housewrk, hwrklist, hevyhwrk, heavyday, hwtim) ad10hwk=-8. IF range(age,0,15) ad10hwk=-2. Recode ad10hwk (1 thru 3 =1) (4 thru 11=2) (12 thru 19=3) (20 thru hi=4) (else=copy) INTO ad10hwk2. variable label ad10hwk '(D) Adults: Days 10+min heavy housework'. variable label ad10hwk2 '(D) Adults: Days 10+min heavy housework (grouped)'. value labels ad10hwk -8 "don't know" -9"not answered" -2"schedule not applicable" -1"item not applicable". value labels ad10hwk2 -8 "don't know" -9"not answered" -2 "schedule not applicable" -1"item not applicable" 0 'None' 1 '1 to 3 days' 2 '4 to 11 days' 3 '12 to 19 days' 4 '20 days or more'. format ad10hwk2 ad10hwk (f8.0).
Q1: Does engaging in cultural activities or participating in sport increase the likelihood of good health and high life satisfaction? OR=1 means no difference between the groups Odds Ratio Relationship
Example – Reporting good health Same: Age economic status income area deprivation education qualification disability/ illness smoking Participated in sport Yes No Twice more likely to report good health
Q2: Is sport the largest section that makes up Physical Activity? MEN WOMEN Average number of hours per a week doing each activity Scottish Health Survey 2011
Scottish Health Survey 2012 Scottish Health Survey Percentage of boys meeting the Physical Activity guidelines Percentage of girls meeting the Physical Activity guidelines Percentage of children aged 2-15 who participated in sports and exercise in the previous week, , by sex Q3: When do children become less active?
Q4: Has there been a change in sport participation and physical activity? Sports participation in the last four weeks Scottish Household Survey 2012 Are sustained changes in physical activity and sports participation evident among particular groups?
Q5: Has there been a change in cultural engagement? Are sustained changes in cultural engagement evident among particular groups? Scottish Household Survey 2012
Q6: What type of person is more likely to attend/engage in the Commonwealth Games? Predict behaviour based on questions on the Olympic Games Scottish Household Survey 2012 Do you Intend to follow / Have you been following / Did you follow the London 2012 Olympic or Paralympic games in any of the following ways?
Commonwealth Games Questions Is there evidence for a 'demonstration effect' among those already, or recently, physically active? Is there evidence of a 'festival effect' among those who are currently sedentary? Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to increase physical activity contributed to change? What can we learn for the future? What change is observed over time in key outcomes e.g. (physical activity, neighbourhood experience, cultural engagement, volunteering)? Have there been changes in the physical, social and retail environment over time? Has there been a change in civic pride among particular groups? What aspects of international reputation have changed over time?