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Peace Research Institute Frankfurt - PRIF  Olivier Minkwitz, PRIF Arms Control and Information Warfare Problems, Prospects, Policies.... and a Plea for.

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Presentation on theme: "Peace Research Institute Frankfurt - PRIF  Olivier Minkwitz, PRIF Arms Control and Information Warfare Problems, Prospects, Policies.... and a Plea for."— Presentation transcript:

1 Peace Research Institute Frankfurt - PRIF  Olivier Minkwitz, PRIF Arms Control and Information Warfare Problems, Prospects, Policies.... and a Plea for a New Approach towards Arms Control ISODARCO 2002

2 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 2 This Presentation is about.... What is Arms Control? Definition, Functions, Effects and Instruments What is Arms Control? Definition, Functions, Effects and Instruments Why Arms Control in the Information Age? Why Arms Control in the Information Age? Problems of Arms Control Problems of Arms Control Prospects of Arms Control Prospects of Arms Control New Approaches towards Arms Control traditional vs. qualitative and preventive New Approaches towards Arms Control traditional vs. qualitative and preventive Main Point: “Building a Culture of restraint” Main Point: “Building a Culture of restraint”

3 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 3 What is Arms Control ? Arms Control is not “Disarmament“ Arms Control is not “Disarmament“ Terms often used synonymously, but... Terms often used synonymously, but... Disarmament aims at the complete reduction of arms and of the military as an instrument of politics Disarmament aims at the complete reduction of arms and of the military as an instrument of politics Disarmament is older, used more often Disarmament is older, used more often has some utopian connotation and has often failed.. has some utopian connotation and has often failed..

4 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 4 What is Arms Control ? Arms Control is a pragmatic concept Arms Control is a pragmatic concept Management of arms dynamics and stability Management of arms dynamics and stability Hay-days of the concept in the 50’s Hay-days of the concept in the 50’s Definition: “all forms of military cooperation, between political enemies, in the interest of reducing the likelihood of war, its scope and violence” (Schelling,1961) Definition: “all forms of military cooperation, between political enemies, in the interest of reducing the likelihood of war, its scope and violence” (Schelling,1961)

5 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 5 What is Arms Control ? Arms Control or Disarmament ? artificial analytical distinction and separation: artificial analytical distinction and separation: ethics of “effects” or “principles” Arms Control and Disarmament vary in: Arms Control and Disarmament vary in: perspective, policy advice and actual effects but share common goals: but share common goals: likelihood, scope and violence of war

6 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 6 What is Arms Control ? Functions Functions Effects Effects Schools of thought Schools of thought Prerequisites & Requirements Prerequisites & Requirements Instruments Instruments What critics say What critics say

7 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 7 Six Functions of Arms Control 1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories or designs of certain weapons 2) prevent certain military activities 3) regulate the deployment of armed forces 4) proscribe transfers of militarily important items 5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons 6) build up confidence through openness

8 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 8 Six Functions of Arms Control 1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories of certain weapons 2) prevent certain military activities 3) regulate the deployment of armed forces 4) proscribe transfers of militarily important items 5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons 6) build up confidence through openness

9 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 9 Possible Effects of Arms Control Level 1: International Stability & Security Policy reduces the risk of war started by accident slow down global, regional arms races increase predictability, reduce fears minimize destruction, suffering in armed conflicts Level 2: Social and Normative Effects minimize disparities between heavily and lightly armed states save resources for economic, social development promote trust and understanding among nations prospect of peaceful relations

10 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 10 Two Theories of Arms Control Realist Approach Realist Approach immediate effects immediate effects national interest, national instrument national interest, national instrument  Arms Control as an objective Constructivist/Postmodern Approach Constructivist/Postmodern Approach secondary effects secondary effects interaction,discourse, changing of interests interaction,discourse, changing of interests  Arms Control as a process

11 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 11 Prerequisites of Arms Control Conflicts and Arms Control are components of international politics; mitigation Conflicts and Arms Control are components of international politics; mitigation certain conflicts cannot be directly affected by interstate arms control (revolutionary, liberation movements, terrorism) certain conflicts cannot be directly affected by interstate arms control (revolutionary, liberation movements, terrorism) Arms control is for adversaries (not for allies?, only state actors? Arms control from below?) Arms control is for adversaries (not for allies?, only state actors? Arms control from below?) share common interest in avoiding war share common interest in avoiding war

12 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 12 Instruments and Methods of Arms Control Retributive Measures: Retributive Measures: 1) forceful imposition of arms limits (Cartage, MTA) Unilateral Measures: Unilateral Measures: 2) unilateral neglect(interwar period) 3) unilateral decision(Mongolia) Reciprocal Measures: Reciprocal Measures: 4) bilateral negotiation (ABM, INF, SALT) 5) multilateral negotiation (Hague, Tlatelolco, NPT)

13 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 13 Instruments and Methods Negotiation of Treaties, Agreements (formalization) Negotiation of Treaties, Agreements (formalization) Geographical Measures (regional demilitarized zones) Geographical Measures (regional demilitarized zones) Structural Measures (defensive orientation) Structural Measures (defensive orientation) Operative Measures (limitation of maneuvers) Operative Measures (limitation of maneuvers) Verification and Compliance (data exchange, Inspections) Verification and Compliance (data exchange, Inspections) Declaratory Measures (declaration of restraint) Declaratory Measures (declaration of restraint) CSBM (reassure intentions, communication channels) CSBM (reassure intentions, communication channels)

14 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 14 Critics of Arms Control Progressive Critics: freezes status quo freezes status quo arms races: bargaining chips arms races: bargaining chips arms build up through Arms Control ! arms build up through Arms Control ! Conservative Critics: only succeeds when unimportant only succeeds when unimportant causes conflict, suspicion in the first place causes conflict, suspicion in the first place problems of verification problems of verification House of Cards ! House of Cards !

15 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 15 Critics of Arms Control Pragmatics Critics: You need a hegemonic power to create or sustain any (Arms Control) agreements You need a hegemonic power to create or sustain any (Arms Control) agreements Arms Control is nothing small, civil or economic powers can persue on their own Arms Control is nothing small, civil or economic powers can persue on their own Today, US shows no interest in Arms Control! Today, US shows no interest in Arms Control!  tailored unilateralism / multilateralism  deformalization of Arms Control (SORT 2002, flexibility, friends)

16 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 16 Why Arms Control in the Information Age? Controlling Information Warfare, Information Operations, Computer Network Operation ? 6 Key Reasons: 1) Realist Reasons 2) Technical Risks 3) Economic Reasons 4) Normative Reasons 5) Timing & Ethics 6) Constructivist Reason

17 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 17 6 Reasons for Arms Control 1) International Security IW/IO already elements in today’s conflicts (Kosovo, P-3, Israel-Palestine, Afghanistan...) IW/IO already elements in today’s conflicts (Kosovo, P-3, Israel-Palestine, Afghanistan...) definite source of conflict in the future definite source of conflict in the future Proliferation of RMA, IW, IO, CNO Strategies, Doctrine, Concepts and Thinking throughout the military world, implementation Proliferation of RMA, IW, IO, CNO Strategies, Doctrine, Concepts and Thinking throughout the military world, implementation Question of interest! Who will benefit from RMA in the long run? Peer competitors, state or non-stated Actors? Driver’s seat? Question of interest! Who will benefit from RMA in the long run? Peer competitors, state or non-stated Actors? Driver’s seat?

18 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 18 6 Reasons for Arms Control 2) Technical Risks: complex interdependence of technological systems complex interdependence of technological systems cascades, dynamics cascades, dynamics Danger, Threats, Risks, Vulnerabilities? (all still rests on FUD: Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt ) Danger, Threats, Risks, Vulnerabilities? (all still rests on FUD: Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt )

19 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 19 6 Reasons for Arms Control 3) Economic & 4) Normative Reasons: IO/IW undermines trust in the way we make business (e-commerce,....) IO/IW undermines trust in the way we make business (e-commerce,....) IO/IW undermines trust in international relations IO/IW undermines trust in international relations

20 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 20 6 Reasons for Arms Control 5) Reasons of Timing & Ethics: Question of new technology in general (Nuclear technology, Biotech, IT....) Question of new technology in general (Nuclear technology, Biotech, IT....) modern technology: Janus-faced technology modern technology: Janus-faced technology “Verantwortungsethik” (Ethic of Responsibility) “Verantwortungsethik” (Ethic of Responsibility) Time Time

21 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 21 6 Reasons for Arms Control 6) Constructivist/Postmodern Approach Arms Control as a process Arms Control as a process Innovation not Technology-immanent Innovation not Technology-immanent No “technological imperative” No “technological imperative” weapons like all technological systems are socially and politically embedded systems (RMA, War and “Democratic Peace”!) weapons like all technological systems are socially and politically embedded systems (RMA, War and “Democratic Peace”!)

22 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 22 Excursion I: RMA, War and the “Democratic Peace” “RMA happen” (historian perspective) vs. RMA’s are being made (strategist’s view) “RMA happen” (historian perspective) vs. RMA’s are being made (strategist’s view) Democracies make RMA’s happen! Democracies make RMA’s happen! Post-heroic: Material, human costs Democratic War: moral, cost of legitimacy Undermines the “Democratic peace” Undermines the “Democratic peace” Democracy, democratic Institutions, Identity and Norms makes the military are more usable instrument in international relations makes the military are more usable instrument in international relations

23 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 23 Problems of Arms Control in the Information Age Abstract and Vagueness Abstract and Vagueness not like WMD, small arms, weapons platforms RMA, IW, IO Doctrines, strategy Real Threats and Vulnerabilities remain unclear: FUD? Real Threats and Vulnerabilities remain unclear: FUD? Weapons of Mass Disruption or merely computer security, password security and computer user & administrator education, awareness ?

24 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 24 Problems of Arms Control in the Information Age Concerns of Definition: Concerns of Definition: what would constitute a cyberweapon, attack or actor ? Offense, defense? Armed aggression, international law? Strategies, doctrine, concepts and technology Policy Concerns Policy Concerns Forums, Actors (UN, ITU, NGOs) Economic Concerns Economic Concerns Normative Concerns Normative Concerns Would we even want to control the flow of Information/Technology democratic potential of IT, free speech...

25 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 25 Problems of Arms Control in the Information Age Concerns of Verification and Compliance Concerns of Verification and Compliance can we even control the flow of information, software, and technology? Paradoxes & Counter-production Paradoxes & Counter-production would any approach through formal abolition not automatically also define what is allowed? Create trade, development barriers?

26 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 26 Prospects of Arms Control What then are viable options? Approaches worth examining? Do nothing? Being overwhelmed by technological determinism?

27 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 27 Prospects of Arms Control 1) freeze, limit, reduce, abolish categories of certain weapons 2) prevent certain military activities 3) regulate the deployment of armed forces 4) proscribe transfers of militarily important items 5) constrain, prohibit the use of certain weapons 6) build up confidence through openness

28 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 28 Prospects of Arms Control Focus on State-actors: Military, Intelligence Organization Focus on State-actors: Military, Intelligence Organization Geographic Measure: demilitarized zones, Infrastructure Geographic Measure: demilitarized zones, Infrastructure Structural Measures: Abolition of offensive IO, CNA, mingling of civil/military Infrastructure Structural Measures: Abolition of offensive IO, CNA, mingling of civil/military Infrastructure Operative Measures: ban IO, CNA except in war, general ban; no IW Methods when effects are not known Operative Measures: ban IO, CNA except in war, general ban; no IW Methods when effects are not known

29 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 29 Prospects of Arms Control Technology/Means oriented: abolition of certain software tools, system architecture Technology/Means oriented: abolition of certain software tools, system architecture Proliferation-oriented Measures: Export- controls Proliferation-oriented Measures: Export- controls Actors-oriented: banning the usage, possession of certain technologies by militaries Actors-oriented: banning the usage, possession of certain technologies by militaries Goal-oriented: banning the attack on civil Infrastructure in general Goal-oriented: banning the attack on civil Infrastructure in general

30 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 30 Prospects of Arms Control Verification Measures: logging, identification of military activities, Monitoring, open source verification through NGOs Verification Measures: logging, identification of military activities, Monitoring, open source verification through NGOs classical instruments classical instruments

31 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 31 Prospects of Arms Control Creating soft Norms and Taboos: Declaratory Means Declaratory Means Code of Conduct Code of Conduct No-First Use offensive Information Operations/Computer Network Attacks Strategy & Doctrine Information Warfare Convention Information Warfare Convention off targets list IW Regime as Norms trap “Culture of restraint” as a first step “Culture of restraint” as a first step

32 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 32 Different Approaches to Arms Control in the Information Age Traditional, classical Arms Control focuses: Traditional, classical Arms Control focuses: Capabilities based Quantities of weapons Postmodern Arms Control focuses on: Postmodern Arms Control focuses on: Intention based Identity of Actors Quality of weapons new Actors, business, NGOs, Hackers Preventive Arms Control Measures: Identification of military critical technology,R&D, civil oversight, Weapons programs

33 Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung HSFK Peace Research Institute Frankfurt PRIF 33 Want to know more ? Mailto: PRIF: Peace Research Institute Frankfurt FoGIS: Research Information Society and Security Policy, Berlin Mailinglist infowar.de


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