Presentation on theme: "1 Transport Congestion in the South East of England Jim Steer, Director Steer Davies Gleave EEESTA Prestige Seminar University of Hertfordshire 14 th November."— Presentation transcript:
1 Transport Congestion in the South East of England Jim Steer, Director Steer Davies Gleave EEESTA Prestige Seminar University of Hertfordshire 14 th November 2007
2 2 Outline Ι Paint a picture of the wider South East, the recent trends, a snapshot of today and how it will change Ι Take note of the committed policy and investment responses (many of them, very recent) Ι Focus on the rail network and the several distinct tasks it has to fulfil Ι Identify the gaps: what more do we need to contemplate?
3 3 Latest ONS Population Projections (October 2007)
8 8 Population and Employment Levels (2001 Census) Ι East of England ■ Population: 5,362,339 ■ Employment: 2,577,523 Ι Greater London ■ Population: 7,140,206 ■ Employment: 3,331,203 Ι South East England ■ Population: 7,944,783 ■ Employment: 3,880,341
9 9 Population Growth 2001 – 2026 (2001 Census/TEMPRO) Ι East of England ■ 2001: 5,362,339 ■ 2006: 5,603,045 ■ 2016: 5,944,795 ■ 2026: 6,362,866 Ι Greater London ■ 2001: 7,140,206 ■ 2006: 7,168,736 ■ 2016: 7,697,670 ■ 2026: 8,029,270 Ι South East England ■ 2001: 7,944,783 ■ 2006: 8,218,983 ■ 2016: 8,629,771 ■ 2026: 9,123,940
10 East of England New Housing Allocations to 2021 Source: Regional Spatial Strategy
12 Employment in Private Sector Services and per Capita GVA
13 Commuting Mode Choice by Destination and Length of Trip, 2002-2005
14 Commuting Trip trends by Length, Time and Household Car Ownership, 1996-2004
15 Commuting Trends in the South East Ι Cambridge Econometrics and WSP’s work of 2005 showed that: ■ Car commuting trips are likely to stabilise and then shorten in the face of growing road congestion ■ Rail commuting trip lengths are likely to rise ■ ‘Reverse’ commuting to areas such as the Thames Valley will grow dramatically (based on population/employment imbalances).
16 Forecast all Rail Crowding in London and the South East during the Morning Peak 2026 (inward flows and load-factor – all services)
17 Transport Needs Where Central London’s Workers Live Source: Transport 2025 and Regional Trends 2006
20 Committed Policy and Investment Responses Ι A set of London plans designed to sustain the recently-won status of world pre-eminence in financial services Ι A programme of Sustainable Growth locations for the wider South East Ι The creation of a regional express rail network for London and the wider South East through Crossrail and Thameslink Ι A programme of investment planned for rail through the ‘HLOS’ process over the next 7 years, targetted on capacity increases Ι A motorway widening programme and the prospect of road user charging (ten years hence) Ι Substantial efforts to influence behaviour: ‘smarter choices’ Ι Various ‘reforms’: regional plans (regional assemblies disbanded; planning reform; business rate levies to help fund infrastructure).
22 But here’s the problem… Ι Department for Transport policy (PSA targets) driven by the need to support economic efficiency Ι The wider South East faces the challenge of substantial growth but without the agency needed to address it Ι Nationally we have an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions – and transport is the big growth sector for carbon emissions smarter travel choices alone insufficient in the face of growth Ι Carbon efficient ways of travelling oblige us to examine solutions more widely than those in hand (which have a central London focus) we are yet to fashion a contemporary model for sustainable development suitable for application in the wider South East as it expands.
23 The Overall Environmental Balance CO² emissions (MTC) Road trafficRail Year 200030.30.7 Source: Steer Davies Gleave (for Transport 2000, July 2006)
24 The Challenges for the Rail Network in the South East Ι London commuting Ι Providing metro-type services within London Ι Being the lynch-pin of the national freight network Ι Intercity services Ι Links to the South East’s airports (from London and elsewhere) Ι European high-speed services (and domestic high-speed services in future?) and Ι Provide the network that supports sustainable expansion of the wider South East.
25 The Nature of the Solutions we need to Consider (Rail) Ι Capacity expansion (more of the same: longer trains, new signalling systems) Ι Network modernisation: grade separation of junctions and provision of user-friendly interchanges Ι Provision of ‘missing links: ■ Croxley link ■ East West Rail ■ Heathrow, Stansted Ι Segregation of traffics to create more efficient network utilisation: ■ A set of cross London freight priority routes and new freight terminals ■ Creation of a high-speed network to free up existing main lines.
26 Cross London Freight Priority Route Ι Key growth markets unitised (container) flows Shellhaven, Haven Ports; Aggregates; Waste transfer; logistics/distribution (potentially) Ι Across inner north London, new eastern Thames crossing and linked to ‘traditional’ (gauge enhanced) routes to channel tunnel Ι Connects the GWML, WCML, MML, ECML, GEML and SEML Ι Addresses 90% of London rail freight movements Ι Relieve existing routes to allow genuine ‘metro’ 3 minute headway services on existing lines Ι Remove a huge constraint on rail freight growth: 6 hours of non- operability.
27 Domestic High Speed Lines Ι HS1 adds capacity to the Kent network twice over Ι HS2 can provide: ■ Similar relief to the main rail corridors on the north side of London ■ Create the wider east-west cross-regional links to complement Crossrail: Fast direct links Heathrow – St Pancras and Stratford A network of services centred on Heathrow to serve the northern home counties, complementary to Airtrack Ι HS3 can provide a resolution to the challenge of the ‘M11 corridor’: ■ New fast line to support longer distance services and fast commuter services (Javelin style): Stansted under 30 minutes Cambridge-Peterborough growth areas Canary Wharf/Stratford Relief for the ECML and the WAML.
28 Conclusions Ι We don’t have the agency needed to address the wider planning challenge in the South East Ι Smarter travel choices alone are insufficient in the face of the level of growth forecast Ι We are yet to fashion a contemporary model for sustainable development suitable for application in the wider South East as it expands But Ι There is an unprecedented investment programme in-hand which will ‘untie’ London Ι A strategic approach points towards a next generation of rail infrastructure schemes that can address the wide set of challenges that the wider South East faces.