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THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK Risk in Uncertainty Seminar 13th November 2002 Vince Jenkins.

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Presentation on theme: "THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK Risk in Uncertainty Seminar 13th November 2002 Vince Jenkins."— Presentation transcript:

1 THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK Risk in Uncertainty Seminar 13th November 2002 Vince Jenkins

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3 WHAT DO WE MEAN?

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6 Risk Perception & Aversion What is risk as far as You are concerned The public are concerned Your clients are concerned Owners~shareholders are concerned

7 Risks Perceived by Different Groups of People

8 Factor 1: Unknown risk Factor 2: Dread risk Attitudes Towards Regulation of these Risks

9 Transport Risks

10 Passenger Fatality by Mode of Travel Fatality rate per 100 million ModePass kms Car0.40 Van0.20 TWMV9.70 Pedal Cycle4.30 Foot5.30 Bus or Coach0.04 Rail0.10 Water0.60 Air0.03 Pass journeys Pass hours

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12 Throwing yourself off a perfectly serviceable boat Immerse yourself in an alien environment Your oxygen source is very finite Risk of the bends etc, etc Diving involves the following Diving involves the following : Diving the Perception & Risk

13 Mobile Telephones Media concern - micro wave exposure Sales gone down? Why? –Immediate benefit –No obvious & immediate detriment to you –High degree of personal control Long term…….?

14 RISK BENEFITS CONSEQUENCES IMMEDIATE

15 MMR - further combined - Chickenpox No proven link? Reduction in vaccinations….. Increase of measles & fatalities Big industry involved……... Lack of effective communication…?

16 Mad Cow Disease - Beef On The Bone

17 HSE: Maximum Tolerable Risk HSE: Broadly Acceptable Risk Derived From John Paling © The Environmental Institute 1992 The Paling Perspective Scale MINISCULE RISKRISK MASSIVERISK RAPIDLY DECREASING RISK REMOTE RISK ACCEPTED RAPIDLY INCREASING RISK Risk Comparisons - Individual Risk of Ingestion of Infectivity Death from Sporadic CJD 95% range  Dying from Cancer  All Accidents  Road Accidents  Accidents on Railway Ingestion of Infectivity due to DRG  Struck by lightning

18 How does Business Manage? Pro-active in managing the impacts on their business Financial loss Bad press What measures are important to a company Reputation damage

19 Shell - Brent Spar

20 Summary Public perception: –Consequences vs immediate benefit –Degree of control –Under estimate familiar risks –Over estimate unfamiliar ~ unpalatable risks Consideration in government decisions Business must take account of the public perspective

21 DET NORSKE VERITAS DNV - April 96 - No. 1 Further information from: Vince Jenkins, DNV, Palace House, 3 Cathedral St, London. SE1 9DE. Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) An Independent Foundation – Established 1864


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