2. 2 © Pro Bono Economics  PBE acts as a broker, matching professional economists with charities;  providing pro bono help to measure performance and understand charity impact; and  fostering a culture of volunteering within the economics profession

3. © Pro Bono Economics Vfm of interventions UK analysis Data collection advice Other economic advice Some charities PBE has helped..

4. Introduction to CBA

5. 5 © Pro Bono Economics CBA is for everyone… General principles are logical, common sense Weighing up costs and benefits in a systematic way Results help inform negotiations and decisions Only need a proportionate CBA Help is available (webinar/relationship manager/tools/consultancy) Logic model/Theory of Change (working out what benefits/outcomes you’re aiming for and how ): necessary first step You’ll need one by end August

6. 6 © Pro Bono Economics Begin now… Do CBA before you start the project… – it will be heavily based on assumptions – be explicit about them, and give as much detail as possible Different levels of detail needed for different sizes and shapes of projects Input to NEM model will be needed for the most complex interventions - consistency of presentation to help quality assurance But first, everyone needs a good theory of change…

7. Logic chain Theory of change Logic model

8. Conditions Local context Policy context What needs to be in place for change to occur? Rationale Evidence & assumptions linking outputs to outcomes & impacts Inputs What resources do you have? Activities What will the partnership do? COSTS Outputs What will the partnership provide? COSTS Intended Impacts What are you trying to achieve? BENEFITS Programme Objectives High level summary of intended outcomes Project: Intended Outcomes What is the change you want to see? BENEFITS

9. Conditions Local context Policy context What needs to be in place for change to occur? Rationale Evidence & assumptions linking outputs to outcomes & impacts Inputs What resources do you have? Activities What will the partnership do? COSTS Outputs What will the partnership provide? COSTS Intended Impacts What are you trying to achieve? Improved health BENEFITS Programme Objectives High level summary of intended outcomes Project: Intended Outcomes What is the change you want to see? BENEFITS

10. Conditions Local context Policy context What needs to be in place for change to occur? Rationale Evidence & assumptions linking outputs to outcomes & impacts Inputs What resources do you have? Activities What will the partnership do? COSTS Outputs What will the partnership provide? COSTS Intended Impacts What are you trying to achieve? Improved health BENEFITS Programme Objectives High level summary of intended outcomes Project: Intended Outcomes What is the change you want to see? +50% uptake of health advice by young mothers BENEFITS

11. Conditions Local context Policy context What needs to be in place for change to occur? Rationale Evidence & assumptions linking outputs to outcomes & impacts Inputs What resources do you have? Activities What will the partnership do? COSTS Outputs Space for 1 GP & 2 health visitors in Children’s Centre Intended Impacts What are you trying to achieve? Improved health BENEFITS Programme Objectives High level summary of intended outcomes Project: Intended Outcomes What is the change you want to see? +50% uptake of health advice by young mothers BENEFITS

12. Conditions Local context Policy context What needs to be in place for change to occur? Rationale Evidence & assumptions linking outputs to outcomes & impacts Inputs What resources do you have? Activities Manage Children’s Centre Align GP /Health Visitor budgets Outputs Space for 1 GP & 2 health visitors in Children’s Centre Intended Impacts What are you trying to achieve? Improved health BENEFITS Programme Objectives High level summary of intended outcomes Project: Intended Outcomes What is the change you want to see? +50% uptake of health advice by young mothers BENEFITS

13. Conditions Local context Policy context What needs to be in place for change to occur? Rationale Evidence & assumptions linking outputs to outcomes & impacts Inputs £50K Budget for Children’s Centre Manager Activities Manage Children’s Centre Align GP /Health Visitor budgets Outputs Space for 1 GP & 2 health visitors in Children’s Centre Intended Impacts What are you trying to achieve? Improved health BENEFITS Programme Objectives High level summary of intended outcomes Project: Intended Outcomes What is the change you want to see? +50% uptake of health advice by young mothers BENEFITS

14. Conditions Local context Policy context What needs to be in place for change to occur? Rationale Evidence & assumptions linking outputs to outcomes & impacts Inputs £50K Budget for Children’s Centre Manager Activities Manage Children’s Centre Align GP /Health Visitor budgets Outputs Space for 1 GP & 2 health visitors in Children’s Centre Intended Impacts What are you trying to achieve? Improved health BENEFITS Programme Objectives High level summary of intended outcomes Project: Intended Outcomes What is the change you want to see? +50% uptake of health advice by young mothers BENEFITS

15. Conditions Local context Policy context What needs to be in place for change to occur? Rationale Evidence & assumptions linking outputs to outcomes & impacts Inputs £50K Budget for Children’s Centre Manager Activities Manage Children’s Centre Align GP /Health Visitor budgets Outputs Space for 1 GP & 2 health visitors in Children’s Centre Intended Impacts What are you trying to achieve? Improved health BENEFITS Programme Objectives Improving health of mothers and children by increasing their access to advice Project: Intended Outcomes What is the change you want to see? +50% uptake of health advice by young mothers BENEFITS

16. Conditions Local context: Young mothers not visiting GP/Health Centre for routine baby check ups Policy context: CCG looking for improved outcomes Conditions: Willingness of local GP practice to allocate staff to Children’s Centre Rationale Evidence & assumptions linking outputs to outcomes & impacts Inputs £50K Budget for Children’s Centre Manager Activities Manage Children’s Centre Align GP /Health Visitor budgets Outputs Space for 1 GP & 2 health visitors in Children’s Centre Intended Impacts What are you trying to achieve? Improved health BENEFITS Programme Objectives Improving health of mothers and children by increasing their access to advice Project: Intended Outcomes What is the change you want to see? +50% uptake of health advice by young mothers BENEFITS

17. 17 © Pro Bono Economics Getting to a good ToC… 1.Set out the pathway… involve as many stakeholders as possible include as many numbers as possible what happens if the conditions aren’t met? Is there a plan B? 2*. Check to see if it’s… plausible – is the logic correct and is there evidence underpinning the assumptions? doable – do you have access to sufficient resources to deliver? testable – are there credible ways to see if predictions hold true? meaningful – are the outcomes important and worth the effort? *Adapted from James P. Connell and Adena M. Klem: You Can Get There From Here JOURNAL OF EDUCATION AND PSYCHOLOGICAL CONSULTATION 2000

18. Costs, Outcomes & Benefits

19. 19 © Pro Bono Economics What are the costs of the project…? …all ADDITIONAL resources needed to deliver the project: Capital one-off e.g. purchase of new building Revenue vary by scale of activity e.g. salaries In-kind e.g. facilities provided free of charge; volunteer time

20. 20 © Pro Bono Economics Fine tuning… Which agencies/individuals bear the costs? When do the costs occur? Adjust for optimism bias- (risks around the evidence/data) Adds to costs

21. 21 © Pro Bono Economics What are the benefits/outcomes – put numbers on … New delivery model (NDM) outcomes Total population and target population = need Level of engagement and retention rate Success in achieving the desired outcomes Business as Usual (BAU) outcomes ( What would have happened without the new delivery model?) = deadweight Forecast trends in outcome indicators over duration of project Comparator areas Control groups

22. 22 © Pro Bono Economics How do you estimate impact…? 1. Estimate outcomes (NDM) 2. Best estimate of what would have happened anyway (BAU) 3. NDM - BAU = impact But - an estimate minus an estimate = an estimate Be clear about your assumptions Will some of the benefit be felt outside the area? Will some of the benefits be at the expense of others?

23. 23 © Pro Bono Economics Fine tuning… Which agencies/individuals achieve the benefits? When do the benefits occur? = lag For everyone? = drop-off Adjust for optimism bias –risks around evidence/data Reduces benefits

24. 24 © Pro Bono Economics It’s not all about cashable savings… Types of benefit: Fiscal Savings to the public sector, if cashable Economic Fiscal benefits - transfers + non-cashable public sector savings + benefits to the economy (increased output) Social Improved well-being, community cohesion etc. Values in NEM Cost database/CBA spreadsheet

25. What outputs do you get from CBA..? Economic Case Net present public value = Public benefits (economic & social) – Public costs Public value for money benefit cost ratio = additional £s of economic & social benefits for £1 of public spending Financial Case Net present budget impact = Fiscal costs – Cashable fiscal benefits Financial return on investment Additional £s of cashable fiscal benefit for £1 of public spending Payback period Year when the benefits are greater than the costs It looks complicated Keep it simple Get help 25 © Pro Bono Economics

26. Support

27. 27 © Pro Bono Economics Sources of help… Webinars & Workshops Logic chain in July CBA in September Guidance Our Place website > resources Cost benefit analysis guidance for local partnerships Excel model & Unit cost database www.neweconomymanchester.comwww.neweconomymanchester.com Direct support via Locality and Relationship Managers