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CO2 Greenhouse effect calculations The futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting.

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Presentation on theme: "CO2 Greenhouse effect calculations The futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting."— Presentation transcript:

1 CO2 Greenhouse effect calculations The futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 1

2 This slide set:  Reviews recent official statements on CO2 in the atmosphere.  Examines the proportions of Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.  Transposes those proportions into actual temperature values in °C of the resulting Man-made warming from CO2.  Allocates the CO2 greenhouse effect by nations both since 1850 and makes estimates onto  Speculates on the temperature effect of additional CO2 that will be produced by the developing nations till  Looks at the real-politique of the Nations who have no intention of damaging their economies by reducing their CO2 emissions.  Explains the damage and futility of the gestures that are being undertaken by those governments who remain adherent to the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global warming assertion.  Raises the important questions and outlines the due diligence that is still essential. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 2

3 Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 3 The impact of atmospheric CO 2 In 2005 Bjorn Lomborg, (the sceptical environmentalist), now much vilified by his by his previous Green colleagues said: “Even if everyone (including the United States) applied the Kyoto rules and stuck to them throughout the century, the change would be almost immeasurable, postponing warming for a mere six years in 2100 while costing at least $150 billion a year.” Even the USA Environmental Protection Agency has confirmed that its proposed actions on CO2 in the USA could only have a miniscule effect on global temperature this century.

4 The impact of atmospheric CO2 Tim Flannery, Climate Commissioner of Australia: “If we cut emissions today, global temperatures are not likely to drop for about a thousand years.” Jill Duggan, European Commission’s National Expert on Carbon Markets and Climate Change and past head of Britain’s International Emissions Trading has acknowledged in a radio interview that: “she did not know what the costs of European action on Carbon Dioxide were nor how much effect European efforts would have on world temperature.” Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 4

5 CO2 in the atmosphere There is no difference between Man-made CO2 molecules and the CO2 molecules that are generated within the biosphere and occur naturally. Man-made CO2 molecules are not especially potent in affecting climate and temperature. Photosynthesis is impeded and plant life is stressed at CO2 levels of less than 200 ppm. Additional atmospheric CO2 significantly improves all plant growth and thus food production. Extra CO2 also enhances drought tolerance of plants. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions5

6 CO2 / atmospheric data Weight of atmosphere ~5,148,000,000,000,000 tonnes Weight of CO2 (in 2007) ~2,996,000,000,000 tonnes Equals by weight % or 582 ppm w Convert weight - volume equals 383 ppm v Man-made emissions (in 2009) ~30,400,000,000 tonnes ~50% reabsorbed by oceans and biosphere ~15,200,000,000 tonnes Equals % or 2.95 ppm w Convert weight - volume equals 1.94 ppm v Business as Usual Man-made emissions equals ~+1.94 ppm v pa Notes: ppm v - parts / million by volume : ppm w - parts / million by weight Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 6

7 The climate/weather easily varies at any location by 10-20°C within a single day and by 40-50°C over a year. But the closure of the World’s carbon based economies, eliminating their undoubted benefits to mankind, could only ever result in:  a diminution of Man-made CO2 based Greenhouse temperature effect of ~+0.25 °C over the 250 years , comprising:  ~+0.14 °C for the World temperature effect from all CO2 emissions since 1850 till the present  and ~+0.11 °C for future continuing business as usual CO2 emissions till the year See the later detailed explanation. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 7 Questions of scale

8 This estimate of the Worldwide Man-made CO2 based temperature effect is equivalent to ~0.1°C per century. This level it is about ~20 millionths of normal annual temperature variation at any particular location. So the Global Man-made temperature effect is:  minuscule  immeasurable  irrelevant. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 8

9 Proportions of current Greenhouse Effect By far the greatest bulk of the greenhouse effect is caused by water vapour, approximately 95%. Of the remaining 5% Greenhouse effect caused by other Greenhouse Gases only ¾ is attributable to CO2, both Man-made and Naturally occurring. This differential [ ¾ CO2 - ¼ other GHGs] accounts for the much greater greenhouse effect of the other lower concentration gases such as Nitrous Oxide and Methane and CFCs. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 9

10 Proportions of current Greenhouse Effect Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 10

11 Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere Man-made additions to CO2 in the atmosphere are only a part of the overall increase in the level of CO2. The total additional CO2 since 1850 is ~110 ppm v, 28% of the current ~390 ppm v. But according to CDIAC, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre of the US Department of Energy, the total Man-made contribution to the level of CO2 to date should be calculated as only ~40% of the current total of ~390 ppm v. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 11

12 Current Man-made - Natural CO2: 390 ppm v Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 12

13 Transposition of Greenhouse Effect into °C Water Vapour ~95% of effect ~31.35°C Greenhouse Gases ~5%~1.65°C Carbon Dioxide at 390 ppm ~75%~1.24°C Natural CO2 ~89% (CDIAC)~1.10°C Worldwide Man-made CO2 ~11%~0.14°C Other Greenhouse gases~0.42°C Natural~0.30°C Man-made~0.12°C Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 13

14 Temperature Effect of Greenhouse Gases Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 14

15 Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere CO2 levels have been increasing naturally. They are augmented by Man-made additions at a rate of about 3.88 ppm v per year: but roughly half of these emissions is reabsorbed by the oceans and biosphere. Using simple proportions based on:  a total Greenhouse effect of 33°C  the total CO2 effect of 1.24°C for 390 ppm v =0.0032°C/ppm v  Man-made emissions of 1.94 ppm v per year is thus equivalent to warming of °C / year Using this proportional calculation, continuing business as usual for the next 90 years could result in a temperature increase of ~0.56 °C Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 15

16 But these proportional calculations do not account for the reduced warming effect of CO2 as a Green House Gas as its concentration rises, because of its diminishing infra-red absorption characteristics. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 16

17 Absorptive characteristics of CO2 expressed as °C Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 17 first ppm v = °C °C / ppm v additional 120 ppm v = °C /ppm v

18 Of the ~1.24°C warming historically attributable to CO to date CO (280) ppm v equivalent to the first °C ~0.004 °C / ppm v CO (400) ppm v equivalent to a total of °C ~0.003 °C / ppm v CO (120) ppm v the extra CO2 emissions occurring since 1850 equivalent only to °C ~ °C / ppm v So the diminution effect results in only a fifth of the warming compared to the natural pre-industrial rate for each further unit of CO2 added. And the temperature effect of continuing rises in CO2 concentration will continue to reduce marginally as CO2 concentrations increase. Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 18

19 This century to 2100 Business as usual with current emissions levels continuing for the 90 years till the year 2100 accounting for the diminution of CO2 effect. Man-made emissions increase estimated: at ~1.94ppm v /year x 90 = an extra 175 ppm v 175 x °C World-wide Man-made CO2 temperature effect by 2100 ~ 0.11 °C Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 19

20 CO2 warming 1850 to date and onto 2100 Accounting for the diminished greenhouse effect of increasing CO2 concentrations. historic years to 2100Total 250 years China °C °C °C United States °C °C °C India °C °C °C Russia °C °C °C Japan °C °C °C Germany °C °C °C Canada °C °C °C South Korea °C °C °C Iran °C °C °C United Kingdom °C °C °C Saudi Arabia °C °C °C South Africa °C °C °C Mexico °C °C °C Brazil °C °C °C Australia °C °C °C Indonesia °C °C °C Italy °C °C °C France °C °C °C Spain °C °C °C Rest of World (200+ Nations) °C °C °C European Union (27) °C °C °C World~0.14 °C~0.11 °C~0.25 °C Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 20

21 Effects of past and future estimated emissions Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 21

22 But emissions growth by major Nations is very variable Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 22

23 Recent Global emissions currently remain stable overall Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 23

24 Emissions from developing Nations have escalated Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 24

25 Estimate of further emissions by developing Nations Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 25

26 Not Joining-in Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 26

27 Not Joining-in: irrelevant impact But the Whole World is Not Joining-in to contribute to the full 0.14°C:  only about 15% of the worlds Nations, (the European Union, Australia and a few others), are making any real commitment to emissions reduction = ~ °C  at most they might be able to achieve a 30% emissions reduction = ~ °C and destroy their economies in the process. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 27

28 The World is Not Joining-in China questions the role of Man-made CO2 in determining climate effects and is now the largest CO2 emitter, having surpassed the USA in 2006, now by ~40%. China completes a new coal-fired power plant each week. India has set up its own climate institute to re-examine the claims and policy recommendations made by the IPCC and grew its emissions by ~9% in Japan has withdrawn support for the Kyoto accord. Russia, Brazil, Iran, Mexico, South Korea, South Africa and Canada do not support action on Man-made Global Warming. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 28

29 The World is Not Joining-in The dissenting Nations already represent about 50% of the world emissions and 46% of the world population. Their CO2 emissions are continuing to grow. The speed of their CO2 emission growth effectively negates the effects of any measures, however drastic, that could ever be taken in Europe and/or the USA. The growing Nations are not going to curtail their national development in the name of an assertion about Catastrophic Man-made Global Warming that they do not adhere to. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 29

30 Already Not Joining-in Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 30

31 Not Joining-in: plus the USA Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 31 With Republican control of Congress, the USA is likely to re- examine:  the scientific inconsistencies of the Man-made Global Warming assertion  the reliance of the Environmental Protection Agency on the reports of the UN IPCC and thus to terminate any USA response to mitigate Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. The USA failure to commit would add a further 18% to the world emissions not falling under the influence of any CO2 controls. The withdrawal of the USA would then mean that about 68% of world emissions and 53% of the world population were no longer involved in any action on CO2.

32 Not Joining-in including the USA Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 32

33 The isolation of the few An opt-out by the USA leaves the European Union, Australia, New Zealand and a few others, (only about 15% of World emissions), isolated in their continuing adherence to the Man- made Global Warming assertion. The remaining “Rest of the World” Nations, (~20% of world emissions and 40% of the world population), mainly consist of some 200 Underdeveloped or Developing Nations, who are not interested in emission reduction, but who are expecting to be the financial beneficiaries at the expense of the Developed Nations of the Western Climate Change process. But it is only in the EU, (including the UK), Australia and New Zealand that the Governments have committed action on CO2 into legislation. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 33

34 Not Joining-in: irrelevant impact To achieve these virtually undetectable reductions of World temperature, these EU and Antipodean Nations are isolated in their actions. They seem willing to do fruitless damage:  to their entire economies  to their energy security  to their worldwide competitiveness. To support the unproven assertion of Catastrophic Man- made Global Warming. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 34

35 Renewable energy policies Progressively now, in 2011, it is clear that many of the more rational and financially stretched Nations within the European Union are already reneging on their commitment to renewable energy, with:  reduction of feed-in tariffs  withdrawal of subsidies for:  wind power  solar energy, etc. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 35

36 Renewable energy policies The EU Nations who are reviewing their commitments in opposition the central European Union policy include:  the Netherlands  Germany  Denmark  Spain  France and several others. The United Kingdom, although under similar financial pressures, is still uniquely wedded to its costly policies supporting unreliable and uneconomic renewable energy. Such policies are being pursued regardless of the costs, their ineffectiveness and the massive risk they will cause to UK energy security. Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 36

37 Unacceptable energy future for the UK Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 37

38 Unacceptable energy future for the UK Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 38

39 The QUESTIONS Is it possible that:  the massive efforts and extreme costs already being expended and planned  the immense risks to energy security anticipated for the future could ever be justified to partially reduce the Man-made CO2 emissions by a limited number of Western Nations for miniscule and probably doubtful effects on world temperature? Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 39

40 The QUESTIONS continued Are controls on CO2 emissions a rational way to save the World? What precisely is the World being saved from? And as the remedies proposed are so vast and so onerous: Where are the full cost benefit analyses? Where is the due diligence? Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 40

41 Reference information Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 41

42 Although policy implementations to reduce Man-made CO2 are well underway, the Essential Due Diligence does not exist. Some of the main questions are: 1.Is “Climate Change” the same as “Global Warming” ? - YES and NO 2.Is CO2 a pollutant ? - ABSOLUTELY NOT 3.Is current Global Warming caused by Man-made CO2 ? - ONLY SLIGHTLY 4.Could controlling the production of Man-made CO2 make a significant difference ? - NO 5.Is the “Greenhouse Effect” important to our planet ? - YES VITAL 6.Is Climate Change happening ? - YES 7.Are published data on Global Temperature accurate and can they be trusted ? NO 8.Has the world been hotter than at present during mankind’s period of civilisation? - YES 9.Would some warming within natural limits be altogether bad ? - NO 10.Are the Icons of the Man-made Global Warming Movement well vindicated ? - NO 11.Have the reports from the UN IPCC been verified and / or corrected ? - NO 12.Is the science of Man-made Global Warming really “Settled” ? - NO Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 42

43 References temperatures-are-not-likely-to-drop-for-about-a-thousand-years 8&redir_esc=&ei=VhewTeesHMa08QP1sfXqCw https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AonYZs4MzlZbdFF1QW00ckYzOG0yWkZqcUhnNDVlSWc&hl=en#gid=1 Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 43

44 Historic and current emissions: ‘ooo,000 tonnes emissions 1900 to 2009annual emissions in 2009 China 105,295 7,711 United States 329,363 5,425 India 28,514 1,602 Russia 93,814 1,572 Japan 45,721 1,098 Germany 75, Canada 25, South Korea 10, Iran 8, United Kingdom 56, Saudi Arabia 7, South Africa 14, Mexico 12, Brazil 10, Australia 12, Indonesia 7, Italy 18, France 29, Spain 10, Rest of World (200+ Nations) 239,587 6,358 European Union (27) 264,767 3,804 World 1,199,345 30,396 Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 44

45 Historic and current emissions percentages Emissions 1900 to 2009Emissions in 2009 China8.78%25.37% United States27.46%17.85% India2.38%5.27% Russia7.82%5.17% Japan3.81%3.61% Germany6.31%2.52% Canada2.10%1.78% South Korea0.86%1.74% Iran0.73%1.73% United Kingdom4.72%1.71% Saudi Arabia0.61%1.55% South Africa1.20%1.48% Mexico1.05%1.46% Brazil0.84%1.38% Australia1.08%1.37% Indonesia0.59%1.36% Italy1.57%1.34% France2.46%1.30% Spain0.91%1.09% Rest of World (200+ Nations)19.98%20.92% European Union (27)22.08%12.51% Futility of Man-made climate control by limiting CO2 emissions 45

46 Cumulative CO2 emissions since 1900 Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 46

47 Historic and Current Emissions Compared Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 47

48 Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 48 Nations compared by CO2 Consumption

49 Nations compared by CO2 output Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 49

50 Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 50 Emissions growth: median contributors

51 Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions 51 Emissions growth: smaller contributors


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