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Historical Commercial Aviation Profitability

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Presentation on theme: "Historical Commercial Aviation Profitability"— Presentation transcript:

1 Historical Commercial Aviation Profitability
Airline Profit Margins under Continual Pressure Global Deregulation Increases Cost Competition Increased Environmental Pressures Add Further Restrictions 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 Reported Yields Source: 1997 Boeing Market Outlook Yield Year ~35%

2 Low Cost of Ownership Goal
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 -2 Airline Profits Fall Below Level Needed to Finance Replacement Engine Ownership Cost Reduction Can Maintain Business Vitality Potential Profit with 50% Lower Engine Cost of Ownership Required Profit to Adequately Finance New Equipment (Source: The Economist) % Profit Actual Profit (Source: Walsh Aviation ) 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 Year Low Cost of Ownership Goal

3 Engine Cost of Ownership Model
2000 NM Mission - 50 Cents / Gallon Fuel Aircraft System Airframe Interest 19.9% Goal: 50% Reduction in Engine Cost of Ownership Airframe Depreciation 23.3% Flight Crew 11.8% Fuel 12.9% Cabin Crew 6.2% 22.4% AF Maint. 5.2% Engine Controlled Costs Engine Interest 5.5% Insurance 2.2% Land Fee 2.9% Engine Maint. 4.1% Engine Depreciation 6.4% Fuel Cost Influenced by Drag SFC and Weight Influenced by Manufacture and Assembly Costs Fuel 28.7% Manta. 18.3% Depreciation 28.5% Interest 24.5% Assumed Proportional to Cost Engine Cost of Ownership Model

4 Component Weight and Cost Summary
5 out of 10 Major Components Contribute 70% to 75% of Engine Weight and Cost Focus Design on: Two-Frame Architecture High Speed Low P/P Fan High P/P per Stage HPC Single-Stage HP Turbine High Loading LP Turbine % Weight % Cost Fan Assembly 15.6* 14.6* Booster High Pressure Compressor 12.5* 11.8* Combustor High Pressure Turbine * Low Pressure Turbine 20.4* 16.7* Frames 16.3* 15.0* Controls and Accessories 11.4* 8.7 Bearings and Seals Miscellaneous and Assembly Total * Major Contributors

5 Goals and Payoffs - Propulsion System
10% Reduction in Fuel Burn * ~50% Reduction in NOx, CO, and HC ** 50% Reduction in Ownership Costs * 10% Reduction in CO2 Emissions * 30 dB Reduction in Noise *** 50% Reduction in In-Flight Shutdowns and Engine-related Delays and Cancellations * 2X Increase in Thrust / Weight * Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduced Cost of Travel Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels Conservation of Nonrenewable Energy Improved Air Quality around Airports Reduced Depletion of Ozone Layer Improved Safety and Reliability Improved Airline Customer Solvency Improved Airport Throughput Reduced Greenhouse Gases Quieter Neighborhoods around Airports/ Increased Traffic Throughput Improved Air Safety Ease of Travel and Improved Airport Throughput Increased Range / Payload or Reduced Fuel Burn * Relative to 1999 State-of-the-Art Operational Aircraft ** Relative to ICAO Requirements *** Relative to FAA Stage 3 Limits

6 High Flow, High Efficiency, Lightweight Fan
Fan / Booster / Structures Swept Wide Chord Fan Blade for High Specific Flow Low Radius Ratio Aluminum Frame with Integrated OGV ’s Aluminum Fan Case Blade-Out Load-Reduction Device > 1% Fuel Burn > 150-pounds Weight Savings

7 Noise Reduction Technology Development Plan
Advanced Liner Design Tailored OGV / Strut Design Advanced 3D Inlet Shape Chevron Nozzle Design Noise Reduction Technology Development Plan

8 1-2 EPNL Benefit at Approach
Shaped Inlet - Predicted Noise Benefits on Fan Tone Radiation 85 dB 80 dB Classic Inlet (-5° Droop) 80 dB 75 dB 75 dB 65 dB 70 dB Advanced 3D Inlet (Scarfed) 70 dB 65 dB 85 dB 50 dB 1-2 EPNL Benefit at Approach

9 Jet Noise Reduction - Chevron Nozzle
Discharge Velocity Profiles Baseline Nozzle Demonstrated 3.5 dB Jet Noise Reduction Acoustic Energy Reduced Greater than 50% Chevron Nozzle

10 Scale Model Testing Validates Analysis Prior to Full Engine Test
Fan and Nacelle Noise Reduction Technologies Aeroacoustic Computerized Models Scale Model Fan Test Vehicle Scale Model Testing Validates Analysis Prior to Full Engine Test

11 Low Stage Number Compressor
Reduce Stages from 10 to 6 - New Blade Design Lower Weight Improved Maintenance Capability

12 Emission on Target to Meet Zurich Category 5
Twin-Annular, Pre-Swirl (TAPS) Combustor 3D Analysis ACTS Rig Advanced Diagnostics at CR&D Emission on Target to Meet Zurich Category 5

13 Convergent-Divergent HPT Blade Improved Performance 0.5% Fuel Burn
Turbine Aerodynamics HPT Stage 1 Vane 3D Aerodynamic HPT Vane Convergent-Divergent HPT Blade Improved Performance 0.5% Fuel Burn 6°-10°C Benefit in EGT Margin Conventional 3D Aero

14 Higher Temperature Blade Material Improved Coatings
Turbine Materials Higher Temperature Blade Material Improved Coatings Improved Disk Material Developing Better Materials for 4-to-1 Hot Section Life Increase PPT /97 KEY POINTS The chart shows details of the GE90 Stage 1 HP turbine blade, the component subject to the most severe operating environment in the engine. The design draws on and improves on the important features of such blades in other GEAE engines: Monocrystal castings of N5 alloy, thermal barrier coatings (TBC), platinum aluminide coating under the TBC plus nickel aluminide coating on inner blade passages both for oxidation resistance, and a dedicated source of CDP cooling air for more effective cooling. NOMENCLATURE N5 Monocrystal blades = a casting technique that results in a single crystal metallurgical structure, of N5 super alloy for state-of-the-art material properties. TBC = Thermal barrier coatings to reduce surface temperatures. CDP = HP compressor discharge pressure, see PPT MESSAGE State-of-the-art material and optimized cooling improve engine efficiency and are key toward long blade life and lower operating cost.

15 Cycle and Configuration Comparisons with Current Engine
Equal Thrust Size Comparison Bottom View: 1999 Baseline - BPR = 8, PROverall = 40 Class Top View: 21st Century Configuration - BPR = 10, PROverall = 60 Class

16 Fuel Burn Benefits Stackup
1999 Baseline Thermal and Propulsive Efficiency 4.5% Thrust/Weight Ratio * 5.5% * Based on “Fixed” Boeing 3000 Nm Range Total Fuel Burn Benefit 10% Bypass Ratio, T41 and Advanced Seals Cycle Pressure Ratio and Component Efficiencies Lightweight Structures Turbomachinery Cycle Effects Advanced Materials Design Tools “Rubber” Aircraft Benefit ** ** Based on “Rubber” Boeing 3000 Nm Range 2010 EIS Demonstrator Goal Fuel Burn Benefits Stackup

17 Total Normalized Emissions
A 10-year View of Technology Normalized Combustor Cost TAPS DAC Total Normalized Emissions (% of 1996 ICAO Standard) TAPS Short SAC 1.25 1.20 0.75 0.50 0.25 -50% Goal Emissions (NOx) Scaled CF6 Noise dB Cumulative Relative to Far 36-III -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Goal -50 Cost of Ownership Goal Cost of Ownership, % SFC Manufacturing Cost, Depreciation, and Interest Maintenance Cost Weight Reliability -40 -30 -20 -10 Fuel Burn / CO2 Reduction Net Thrust 1999 Standard Advanced Commercial Engine 10% SFC Robust Safe Design 100 75 50 25 % Parts Count CFM56 E 5 -30% Goal Maintenance Cost % Maint. Cost / EFH 100% CFM56 E5 -30% Goal

18 Summary GEAE Remains the Industry Leader in Aircraft Engine Technology
Programs and Plans are in Place to Assure this Status is Maintained in the Future Strong Consideration is Given to Achieve Improved Noise and Emission Signatures in a Manner Beneficial to the Airlines and the Community

19 Defining Technologies for the Next Millennium
Dave Fancher August 12, 1999

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