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Alternate approach to developing target levels Increasingly common ( NASA, NRC, USEPA ) Statistical vs deterministic inputs ( can be combined ) Addresses.

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Presentation on theme: "Alternate approach to developing target levels Increasingly common ( NASA, NRC, USEPA ) Statistical vs deterministic inputs ( can be combined ) Addresses."— Presentation transcript:

1 Alternate approach to developing target levels Increasingly common ( NASA, NRC, USEPA ) Statistical vs deterministic inputs ( can be combined ) Addresses uncertainty Site-specific vs default SCTL application Requires ID of appropriate input distributions Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Draft Copy Subject To Change

2 Probabilistic vs Deterministic Uses distributions vs point estimates for inputs Seeks to characterize degree of uncertainty by iterative calculations ( e.g., 100,000 events ) Avoids unintentional cumulative conservatism 376.30701(2), F.S. speaks to protection against risks under “actual circumstances of exposure” Typically Tier 3 rather than Tier 1 exercise Draft Copy Subject To Change

3 Implementation Option for PRA use in 62-780 Previously used in 2008 62-302 Baseline analysis Recently used in 2013 SW criteria establishment Use for revamping 62-777 SCTLs would require consensus selection of applicable distributions Draft Copy Subject To Change

4 Summary Commercial software options for PRA available PRA can be combined w/deterministic elements Will require review of various distributions Applicable as a risk assessment option now May be longer term exercise for default SCTLs May not be appropriate for Tier 1 analysis Draft Copy Subject To Change


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