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PETER CIBOROWSKI SEPTEMBER 11, 2013 MCCAG REVISITED: WORK- TO-DATE.

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Presentation on theme: "PETER CIBOROWSKI SEPTEMBER 11, 2013 MCCAG REVISITED: WORK- TO-DATE."— Presentation transcript:

1 PETER CIBOROWSKI SEPTEMBER 11, 2013 MCCAG REVISITED: WORK- TO-DATE

2 BODIES OF MCCAG-RELATED WORK: AUGUST 2012 TO PRESENT MCCAG Options Reanalyses Assessment of Reasonableness of MCCAG Option Policy Goals, e.g., E50-effective for motor fuels by 2020 Assessment of GHG Emissions-avoided, GHG and Energy Use Forecast,

3 MCCAG OPTIONS REANALYZED Energy Supply (ES): ES-3, ES-5 Residential/Commercial/Industrial: RCI-1a, RCI-4 Transportation/Land Use: TLU-6, TLU-9, TLU-13 Agriculture, Forestry, Solid Waste : AFW-1a, AFW-1b, AFW-3a, AFW-3b, AFW-3c, AFW-4, AFW-5a, AFW-5b, AFW-6

4 MCCAG EMISSIONS-AVOIDED: REASSESSED EFFECTIVENESS MCCAG Estimate (2025) (million CO 2 -e tons) Reassessment Estimate (2025) (million CO 2 -e tons) Energy Supply Residential/Commercial/Industrial Transportation/Land Use Agriculture/Forestry/Solid Waste Total % of total MCCAG Reductions70%

5 GHG EMISSIONS FORECASTS % of 2010 Inventory Completed Electric Power Sector32% Transportation24% Residential Sector7% Pending Industrial Sector14% Agricultural Sector18% Commercial Sector4% Waste Management Sector1%

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10 MCCAG EMISSION FORECASTS SectorMCCAGRevised Electric Power Transportation Residential total

11 NEXT STEPS Agriculture Forecast Industrial Sector Forecast Update and completion of emissions-avoided analysis, Update of to Electric Power, Residential and Transportation Forecast Remaining 15 MCCAG Options for Reanalysis Assessment of Alternative Options to MCCAG Options

12 EXTRA SLIDES

13 EMISSIONS-AVOIDED: EXAMPLE CALCULATIONS ActionDescription 1990 baseline Renewable Energyin-state RE development8.5 CIP-energy efficiencyCIP-related savings with retirements baseline Prairie Island Biomass Mandate Laurentian, District Energy, Fibrominn 0.49 E10, B5 Mandatesend-use fuel displacement0.34 RCI-4industrial CHP-0.30 AFW-3abiomass use at ethanol facilitiies0.02 TLU-4reduced congestion0.03

14 REASONABLENESS OF MCCAG POLICY GOALS: EXAMPLES MCCAG GoalRevised 2025 Goal AFW-1ano-till on 5.9 million acresmulch till on 3.7 million acres AFW-1b+50% N use efficiency+5% N use efficiency AFW-3aImplicit E-50 mandate, 24 million tons stover removal Implicit E-20 mandate, 4.3 million tons stover removal AFW-5a1 million acres afforested50,000 acres afforested ($14.5/ton CO 2 -avoided) RCI-41,000 MW new industrial CHP 300 MW new industrial CHP, 100 MW MW new commercial CHP TLU-436 mpg, new cars48.1 mpg, new cars, federal CAFE AFW-7b60% recycling45 to 50% recycling

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