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PETER CIBOROWSKI APRIL 4, 2012 Emissions and Emission Rate Changes from the Minnesota Power Sector: Numbers and Attribution.

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Presentation on theme: "PETER CIBOROWSKI APRIL 4, 2012 Emissions and Emission Rate Changes from the Minnesota Power Sector: Numbers and Attribution."— Presentation transcript:

1 PETER CIBOROWSKI APRIL 4, 2012 Emissions and Emission Rate Changes from the Minnesota Power Sector: Numbers and Attribution

2 Assigned Questions Emissions and emission rates from the Minnesota electric power sector have declined substantially, 2000-2010  How much of that can be attributed to the installation of control equipment and facility retrofits/changeouts?  How much of it is due to changes in dispatch?  Of changes arising from dispatch how much is due respectively to new natural gas, biomass and wind generation (and the backing-off of coal) and how much due to import substitution?

3 Needed Data Development Updated data through 2010 for net generation, energy input to generation, in-state GHG emissions, in-state fossil CO 2 emissions, sector energy balance, out-of-state emission and heat rates Updated universe of facilities to add Rapids Energy, OREG3, Koda Energy Developed NO x and SO 2 emissions data from MPCA Criteria Pollutant Inventory Maintained all else the same as in October 2011, including sectoral definitions

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5 EPA Clean Air Markets Development (CEM) MPCA GHG and Criteria Pollutant Inventories a NO x (tons) 31,153 40,044 SO 2 (tons) 41,574 45,452 fossil CO 2 (tons) 32,873,310 34,750,352 a using the sectoral definition given in ‘EGU Rules Database’, October 2011 Comparison of CY 2010 EGU Emissions Estimates: MPCA and EPA

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16 unitsGHGsNO x SO 2 In-state Combustion tons19%60%61% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons9%52%45% In-state Combustion tons/MWH7%54%55% In-state Generation tons/MWH18%59%61% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MWH15%55%49% In-state Combustion tons/MMBtu6%54%55% In-state Generation tons/MMBtu13%57%58% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MMBtu9%52%45% Percentage Reduction between 2003 and 2010

17 unitsGHGsNO x SO 2 In-state Combustion tons11%58%54% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons3%52%39% In-state Combustion tons/MWH8%57%53% In-state Generation tons/MWH18%61%58% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MWH15%58%46% In-state Combustion tons/MMBtu7%56%52% In-state Generation tons/MMBtu12%58%55% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MMBtu9%55%43% Percentage Reduction between 2000 and 2010

18 Conclusions (part 1) Change in the sector has been rapid and large-scale in nature The changes have been persistent in direction While the recession in undoubtedly a factor, the changes appear to have persisted through 2011 Depending on endpoints, GHG, NO x and SO 2 emissions from in-state combustion have declined 11-19%, 58-60% and 54-61%, respectively

19 Conclusions (part 1) (cont.) Depending on endpoints, GHG, NO x and SO 2 emissions from in-state combustion plus imports have declined 3-9%, 51-53% and 39- 45%, respectively Depending on endpoints, emissions per MWH from in-state combustion for GHGs, NO x and SO 2 have declined 4-10%, 51-61% and 50-58%, while emission per MWH from all in-state generation declined 16-19%, 57-61%, and 56- 61%, respectively

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24 Analysis Assumptions emission intensity changes across shared MWH (for paired years) is a good marker for the effects of the installation of control equipment, facility retrofits and replacement the best and most inclusive measure of emission intensity effects are the observed effects across shared MWH plus those emissions due to changes at plant that would have been avoided at plants not dispatched had those plants been dispatched all other effects are dispatch effects

25 Analysis Architecture Endpoints for analysis: 2000:2010; 2002: 2010; 2003:2010; 2005: 2010 Pollutants: GHGs, NO x, SO 2 Parameters evaluated: emissions (tons), emission rates (tons/MWH; tons/MMBtu energy input) Sectoral boundaries for analysis: in-state combustion; in-state generation; in-state generation plus imports

26 Data Sources In-state facility-by-facility emissions: MPCA GHG Inventory, MPCA Criteria Pollutant Inventory In-state facility-by facility net generation: EIA-923, EIA-906, FERC form 1 In-state facility-by facility energy input to generation: MPCA GHG Inventory

27 Data Sources (cont.) Electric power sector energy balance: EIA Electric Power Annual, EIA-923, EIA-906, EIA State Electricity Profiles Out-of-state per MWH emission rates: EIA, Electric Power Annual databases Out-of-state energy input to generation: EIA, Electric Power Annual databases

28 Method For each paired year for each facility, evaluate the distribution of MWH-generated, MMBtu-energy input and emissions across the respective emission intensity and dispatch pieces Estimate the change in emissions and emission rates Evaluate the contribution of the changes resulting from changed emission intensity and changed dispatch to the observed facility-level changes

29 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 GHG emission reduction between paired years (CO 2 -e short tons) 4,379,611 7,156,181 8,386,504 7,255,594 % distribution of reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 50%39% 21%11% Dispatch Effects 50%61% 79% 89% GHG Emission Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

30 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 NO x emission reduction between paired years (short tons) 55,188 55,49360,393 54,654 % distribution of reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 88% 77% 69% 66% Dispatch Effects 12% 23% 31% 34% NO x Emission Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

31 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 SO 2 emission reduction between paired years (short tons) 53,896 62,596 72,373 60,372 % distribution of reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 90% 77% 69% 68% Dispatch Effects 10% 23% 31% 32% SO 2 Emission Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

32 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO 2 -e tons/MWH) 1.15 1.051.16 1.05 1.13 1.05 1.09 1.05 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 68% 74% 68% 57% Dispatch Effects 32% 26% 32% 43% GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

33 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO 2 -e tons/MMBtu) 0.103 0.095 0.102 0.095 0.100 0.095 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 35%43% 48% Dispatch Effects 65%57% 52% GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

34 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 NO x emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0028 0.0012 0.0026 0.0012 0.0025 0.0012 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 93% 89% 87% Dispatch Effects 7% 11% 13% NO x Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

35 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 NO x emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.00025 0.00011 0.00023 0.00011 0.00024 0.00011 0.00022 0.00011 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 89% 87% 85% Dispatch Effects 11% 13% 15% NO x Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

36 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 SO 2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0029 0.0014 0.0030 0.0014 0.0031 0.0014 0.0027 0.0014 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 95% 90% 88% 89% Dispatch Effects 5% 10% 12% 11% SO 2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

37 2000:20102002:20102003:20102005:2010 SO 2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.00026 0.00012 0.00028 0.00012 0.00025 0.00012 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 91% 88% 86% 88% Dispatch Effects 9% 12% 14% 12% SO 2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

38 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO 2 -e tons/MWH) 0.81 0.66 0.81 0.66 0.78 0.66 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 28% 33% 22% 13% Dispatch Effects 72% 67% 78% 87% GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

39 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 NO x emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0020 0.0008 0.0018 0.0008 0.0019 0.0008 0.0018 0.0008 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 77% 73% 70% 68% Dispatch Effects 23% 27% 30% 32% NO x Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

40 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 SO 2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0020 0.0009 0.0021 0.0009 0.0022 0.0009 0.0020 0.0009 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 78% 74% 70% Dispatch Effects 22% 26% 30% SO 2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

41 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO 2 -e tons/MWH) 0.82 0.730.83 0.73 0.83 0.73 0.81 0.73 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 30% 33% 27% 23% Dispatch Effects 70% 67% 73% 77% GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

42 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 NO x emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0020 0.0009 0.0019 0.0009 0.0017 0.0009 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 83% 81% 78% 76% Dispatch Effects 17% 19% 22% 24% NO x Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

43 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 In-state Combustion Emission Intensity Effects 68% 74% 68% 57% Dispatch Effects 32% 26% 32% 43% In-state Generation Emission Intensity Effects 28% 33% 22% 13% Dispatch Effects 72% 67% 78% 87% In-state Generation Plus Imports Emission Intensity Effects 30% 33% 27% 23% Dispatch Effects 70% 67% 73% 77% GHG Emission Rate (tons/MWH) Changes Across Different Sector Definitions and Spatial Scales

44 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 In-state Combustion Emission Intensity Effects 93%89% 87% Dispatch Effects 7%11% 13% In-state Generation Emission Intensity Effects 77%73%70%68% Dispatch Effects 23%27%30%32% In-state Generation Plus Imports Emission Intensity Effects 83%81%78%76% Dispatch Effects 17%19%22%24% NO 2x Emission Rate (tons/MWH) Changes Across Different Sector Definitions and Spatial Scales

45 MWH dispatched in 2003 but not 2010 MWH of new dispatch in 2010 Coal 5,185,800Wind 4,584,900 Natural gas 405,800Natural gas 1,185,900 Nuclear 206,800Biomass 1,024,200 Solid waste 153,000Coal 642,900 Biomass 126,100 total 6,089,500 7,457,700 Resources Dispatched in Minnesota in 2003 but not in 2010 and Vice Versa

46 MWH dispatched in 2003 but not 2010 MWH of new dispatch in 2010 Coal 5,185,800Wind 4,584,900 Natural gas 405,800Natural gas 1,185,900 Nuclear 206,800Biomass 1,024,200 Solid waste 153,000Coal 642,900 Biomass 126,100Imported power 4,793,100 total 6,089,500 12,058,100 Resources Dispatched for Minnesota in 2003 but not in 2010 and Vice Versa

47 Conclusions The largest part of the GHG reductions from in- state combustion of the last 10-years have resulted from changed dispatch, though this result depends on the endpoints chosen This relation reverses when emission rate changes for GHGs are considered If we switch to in-state generation, this relation changes again; the bulk of the observed changes in GHG emission rates results from dispach effects

48 Conclusions (cont.) The overwhelming majority of NO x and SO 2 emission reductions and reductions in emission rates have been the result of emission intensity changes at existing plant Dispatch effects are smaller and are most evident in emission rate reductions treated in relation to all in- state generation, including nuclear, wind, and hydroelectric

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52 Extra Slides

53 unitsGHGsNO x SO 2 In-state Combustion tons17%58% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons8%53%43% In-state Combustion tons/MWH10%54% In-state Generation tons/MWH19%59% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MWH15%57%48% In-state Combustion tons/MMBtu6%53% In-state Generation tons/MMBtu12%55% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MMBtu8%53%44% Percentage Reduction between 2002 and 2010

54 unitsGHGsNO x SO 2 In-state Combustion tons17%58%57% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons11%51%44% In-state Combustion tons/MWH4%51%50% In-state Generation tons/MWH16%57%56% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MWH13%52%45% In-state Combustion tons/MMBtu5%51% In-state Generation tons/MMBtu12%55%54% In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation tons/MMBtu9%50%42% Percentage Reduction between 2005 and 2010

55 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 In-state Combustion Shared MWH0000 Different MWH (200x-2010)1,036,2402,968,7575,148,8385,306,296 In-state Generation Shared MWH0000 Different MWH (200x-2010)-4,082,826-1,425,461507,2941,044,174 In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation Shared MWH0000 Different MWH (200x-2010)-8,635,751-6,218,533-5,287,663-1,648,198 MWH Reduction and Their Attribution: 200X minus 2010

56 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 In-state Combustion Shared MWH12,283,35217,762,4497,549,492-451,434 Different MWH (200x-2010)3,679,53329,198,82551,808,70854,923,341 In-state Generation Shared MWH11,800,71118,653,2538,201,1352,994,316 Different MWH (200x-2010)-17,645,36515,453,18135,311,47135,640,996 In-state Plus Out-of-state Generation Shared MWH18,850,26325,820,73516,807,7249,436,040 Different MWH (200x-2010)-60,670,108-29,840,993-19,450,44210,198,280 MMBtu Energy Input Reduction and Their Attribution: 200x minus 2010

57 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO 2 -e tons/MMBtu) 0.075 0.066 0.076 0.066 0.075 0.066 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 28% 32% 23% 14% Dispatch Effects 72% 68% 77% 86% GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

58 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 NO x emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.0002 0.00008 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 83% 80% 77% 74% Dispatch Effects 17% 20% 23% 26% NO x Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

59 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 SO 2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.0002 0.00009 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 85% 81% 76% Dispatch Effects 15% 19% 24% SO 2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

60 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 SO 2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MWH) 0.0022 0.0012 0.0023 0.0012 0.0024 0.0012 0.0022 0.0012 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 93% 90% 88% 84% Dispatch Effects 7% 10% 12% 16% SO 2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

61 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 GHG emission rate reduction between paired years (CO 2 -e tons/MMBtu) 0.078 0.071 0.079 0.071 0.078 0.071 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 25% 27% 26% 22% Dispatch Effects 75% 73% 74% 78% GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

62 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 NO x emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.0002 0.00008 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 88% 85% 81% Dispatch Effects 12% 15% 19% NO x Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

63 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 SO 2 emission rate reduction between paired years (tons/MMBtu) 0.0002 0.0001 % distribution of emission rate reductions attributable to emission intensity changes and to dispatch changes Emission Intensity Effects 102% 100% 97% 91% Dispatch Effects -2% 0% 3% 9% SO 2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

64 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 GHG emission reduction between paired years (CO 2 -e short tons) 1,595,849 4,176,310 4,963,095 6,100,518 Emission Intensity Effects 2,582,536 3,086,596 2,551,572 1,696,867 Dispatch Effects (986,687) 1,089,714 2,411,523 4,403,651 GHG Emission Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

65 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 NO x emission reduction between paired years (short tons) 65,762 67,949 65,773 63,139 Emission Intensity Effects 68,417 64,964 59,185 50,101 Dispatch Effects (2,655) 2,985 6,588 13,038 NO x Emission Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

66 2000:2010 2002:2010 2003:2010 2005:2010 SO 2 emission reduction between paired years (short tons) 56,602 67,335 72,014 68,038 Emission Intensity Effects 70,767 73,789 74,458 60,019 Dispatch Effects (14,165) (6,454) (2,444) 8,018 SO 2 Emission Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution


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