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ELEC Conference October 26, 2012 Bucharest, Romania.

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Presentation on theme: "ELEC Conference October 26, 2012 Bucharest, Romania."— Presentation transcript:

1 ELEC Conference October 26, 2012 Bucharest, Romania

2  Romania’s population remains one of the most confident in the merits of adopting the Euro.  According to the April 2012 Eurobarometer, 54 percent of Romanians consider that Euro adoption would have a positive effect for them, compared with 45 percent of Latvians, 44 percent of Hungarians (the three countries where Euro enjoys a majority), 37 percent of Bulgarians, and of Poles, 36 percent of Lithuanians and 21 percent of Czechs. Valentin Lazea

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4  The new Government resulting from the Parliamentary elections of December 9 will have to confirm or to revise the proposed adoption date, of  However, maintaining the current timetable is extremely difficult, since it supposes:  entering the ERM2 starting January 2013  a minimum stay within the ERM2, of only two years  acceptance by the Commission and by the ECB of the adoption taking place not at the beginning of 2015, but during that year.

5  The nominal convergence criteria should not constitute an unsolvable problem. Romania already fulfills 3 of the 5 Maastricht criteria and 7 of the 10 Scoreboard criteria.  The real problem consists of the real convergence criteria.

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11  Options for the new Government: a)maintaining the current accession date b)proposing a new accession date c)leaving the question of accession date open-ended. Reasons for option c):  in the short term and in the medium term, there is little willingness from the Eurozone to accept new members  real convergence criteria require time to be fulfilled  the disciplinary role of the Euro has been, to a large extent, taken over by new instruments at the Commission’s disposal (European Semester, Six Pack etc.).

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