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Impact of demographic change Mary REDEI, D.Sc. HU Regional Informatics Ltd. ADAPT2DC Transnational Study tour Budapest, 20-22. May 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "Impact of demographic change Mary REDEI, D.Sc. HU Regional Informatics Ltd. ADAPT2DC Transnational Study tour Budapest, 20-22. May 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Impact of demographic change Mary REDEI, D.Sc. HU Regional Informatics Ltd. ADAPT2DC Transnational Study tour Budapest, 20-22. May 2014

2 Demography left the descriptive style 1.Foresight: the future of the past based on relationship, explanation, how the structure limits the flow? 2.Border of demography extended like: economical activity, graduation, ethnicity, religious, household.. 3.If the process of demography is in harmony, not much attention follows, pro-action… 4.But now, decreasing, ageing, no natural reproduction, rising mobility. 5.Why are these problems? How can we benefit?

3 Main pop trends 1.No natural reproduction. Half of 35y girls have no child! Under replacement level, life expectancies slowly rising, but still… 2.Demographic behaviour rapidly changing, vulnerability of life. 3.Cohort size varied from 220 to 85 thousands/y, (old) dependency ratio is growing, young 0,23 old 0,39 (0,85!) these are challenges for institutional utilisation, propagative number limits the expectation. 4.See the evolution of age tree.

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5 Population development of Hungary 5

6 Replacement movement 1.300 immigrants + 200 staying permit holders, 600 working +50 studying abroad +illegal, seasonal and circular migrants. 12% of working age. 2.Without immigration the population decrease would have been more rapid. 200 had got Hungarian citizenship and live here. Two-thirds of them live near the capital. 3.The small territorial level’s centrums are 4 times attractive compared to their periphery. Better educated, younger people. External HR resources – new task their re- engineering. 4.Mr Max Fischer: ‚we called workers and human arrived.’ Migration extended from worker to family. 5.Free movement is not equal to free access to social services 6

7 International flow of Hungary 7

8 Ageing 1.Raising awareness of inhabitants, common and individual responsibility. 2.Living longer in health, living away, growing generation age-distance→1990. Around age of 20y to give birth to first child, nowadays it is over 30y. 3.Micro spatial distribution: living alone 32%, from this old household 53%. 4.Macro spatial distribution: access to oversized infrastructure, citizen right versa Constitution, how the service companies should be ready to do so? Profit or gratis? Who will compensate?

9 Number of settlements by population categories Categories20132020202720342041 0-499 11281159119212421300 500-999 645654661653626 1000-1499 362359348338340 1500-1999 272251253242229 2000-2999 281278252242236 3000-4999 192183 180173 5000-9999 132126127122115 10000-15000 5255485054 15000-19999 3033322724 20000-29999 24212526 30000-49999 1716141314 50000-99999 1011 9 100000- 98888 Total3154 9

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11 Spatial distribution Rural: farmers aging, how to cultivate the land? Revitalization of life on economical basis or social ones? PC illiteracy and E-governance? City: low mobility level, specially old people, high maintenance cost, more and different institutional placement expected on XXI century level. Suburban area: early ´90 started without city governance, orientation. Particular way –local bargain, eg.35 y→60y, no physical -mental interest and effort to enjoy the green. No big family, real estate supply! Border area: isolation →CBC, real estate boom, two ways flow, interactive contact zone, specially to Croatia, Ukraine, Slovakia.

12 Double global effects 1.from 2008 Schengen free flow area, and economical-financial crisis, 2.The western demographic behaviours spread versus the eastern structure. Fertility, causes of deaths. 3.Silver economy +elderly immigration to Hungary. Former Romanian emigrants gained Austrian citizenship and return to ethnic life.

13 Population by age structure source: Budget Act years Hungary total pop. 0–14 15-6465-X Aged per working Years old population number in thousands 20139.9061429 6229 2078 21% 3,0 20209.7571421 60642025 21% 3,0 20309.5791349 57622000 21% 2,9 20409.3371227 52652191 23% 2,4 20509.1131131 47682345 26% 2,0 20607.996 10094108 2879 36% 1,8 13

14 Half of population lives in red lane Three national borders 3X3 structure 14

15 Productivity of individuals in a closed economy and in a market economy 1.Underinvest to accumulate intellectual capital during socialism. 2.FDI was able to recruit eligible HR from labour-market, but in 1993 opened job fairs, direct from universities. 3.Recently, over 30y by proven experience in CV, despite of having a residence and job they moved to abroad for carrier, for better life style, be cosmopolitan, take a chance… 15

16 Népesség százalékos változása településenként, 2041 (2011. október 1. népesség=100%) 16

17 Build environment Social and technical infrastructure ↔ citizen right/severely disabled Housing structure : expanded, but not appropriate to their age. Internal mobility: permanent flow from East to West, South to Nord. 1950-60: activity modification from agriculture to industry, concentrated to Budapest. 1960-75: housing and employment motivation, state construction. 1975-90: urban network extension, block of houses and private construction on perspectives. 1992-2007: employment to urban + suburban, no state investment in housing. 2008- beyond the border. new partnership had formed in housing in western border area. Eg.: car assembly company (e.g.: AUDI) + newly internal mobile worker ( Mr XY) + property owner (landlord) Emigration creats depopulated settlements. 17

18 Economical impact 1.IMF: social and regional disparities limit the sustainable development. 2.Biological gain and loss. No social load in sending case. 3.Human development: graduation, skill, ability experience 4.Living longer → late start and life events shift 5.Immigrants pay more tax than their social claim, 6.Tax paying foreigners 7% in capital, 3% other counties, loss from emigration, 7.remittances received (2,3 b$)1,8% GDP 42. ranked, sent (1,1 b$) 0,9 % GDP 36. ranked. 8.Missing the tax payers therefore missing tax, the production is not here! 18

19 Some question and re-mark Separate the pro-action policy from the re-action policy, for example early warning system. Increase and strengthen the capability to affiliate based on mutually agreements, How can we expect solution from an inflexible system? Who will compensate the difference and whether on economical or on social basis action? 19

20 REDEYMARI@GMAIL.COM Thanks for your attention and remarks 20


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