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Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economy Presented by Mona El Agizy.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economy Presented by Mona El Agizy."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economy Presented by Mona El Agizy

2 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt We Examined Water supplies Agriculture Coastal Resources Tourism Air Quality Biodiversity: Coral Reefs

3 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Key Aspects of This Study It is a collaboration We used estimates of change in:  Water supply  Crop Yields  Inundation of Nile Delta  From Egyptian Government and Egyptian Researchers We developed estimates of economic impacts

4 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Scenarios

5 Socioeconomic Scenarios: Population

6 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Socioeconomic Scenarios: Income

7 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Tourism Projections Recorded and estimated tourism revenues (Expenditures – millions EGP) Extrapolations (pessimistic/optimistic)

8 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Climate Change Scenarios Sources: Elshamy Personal Communication on Blue Nile

9 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Sea Level Rise Scenarios

10 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Change in Flows into High Aswan Dam

11 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Results

12 Impacts of High Sea Level Rise on Nile Delta Inundation of Agriculture Lands Inundation data supplied by CoRI

13 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Nile Delta Risks to Homes and Roads

14 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Change in Crop Yields Based on Results Reported in Egyptian SNC

15 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Effects on Agriculture Production: 2030 % Change

16 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Effects on Agriculture Production: 2060 % Change

17 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Change in Agriculture Annual Welfare 2030 (billions EGP)

18 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Change in Agriculture Annual Welfare 2060 (billions EGP)

19 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Effect of Increased Heat Stress in Cairo

20 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Change and Value of Additional Air Pollution in Cairo: Particulate Matter

21 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Estimated Impacts on Tourism

22 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Summary of Economic Impacts

23 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Key Economic Impact GDP1.6 – 2.4 % GDP2.1 – 6.0 % GDP

24 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt What is Not Accounted For Natural Resource Impacts (outside of corals and tourism)  Biodiversity Other human health effects  Water resources  Disease Total costs of sea level rise  Defense costs or all lost property

25 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Concluding Thoughts Egypt appears to be facing potentially serious economic and social risks from climate change Reduction in GHGs will reduce risks to some extent  Particularly of extreme climate change Adaptation can ameliorate some of these risks  Adaptation will be critical

26 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt 26 PROBLEMIMPACTSOLUTION

27 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Government 27 PROBLEM Economic Impact Policy Change

28 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Main Key Adaptations in the Water Sector Water Management Enhancement of Supplies Demand Reduction Coastal Resource Protection

29 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Main Key Adaptations in the Agriculture Sector Optimal Use of on-farm water resources Cropping Pattern for Water Management Certified Seeds Stress tolerant Crop Selection for Climate Conditions

30 Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt Thank you! For your attention Group: Climate Change Leadership in Egypt


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