1 Indicators for Monitoring and Evaluating Adaptation at a National Level The UK’s Experience Jon Elliott – Science Lead, Climate Change Adaptation8th EIONET Workshop, 24th June 2014
2 The UK’s Nation System Adaptation Lead Mitigation Lead Climate ServicesDelivery
3 Climate Change Act - Deliverables Climate Change Risk Assessment – CCRADelivered every 5 yearsConsider the highest impact risks and opportunities for the UKNational Adaptation Programme – NAPDelivered every 5 yearsDeals with the risks and opportunities laid out in the CCRAPrioritised, risk based approachSets a number of ‘actions’ required to address risksShared responsibility across government (local and national) as well as business and civil societyAdaptation Reporting Power – ARPGives the Secretary of State the power to require certain organisations to report on the major risks and their responses to these risks as well as progress they have madeOrganisation’s responses feed into the CCRA
5 The National Adaptation Programme The NAP has six chapters that broadly follow the themes in the CCRA:Built environmentInfrastructureHealthy and resilient communitiesAgriculture and forestryNatural environment, andBusiness.In addition a seventh chapter describes the role of local government in delivering adaptation across all sectors of society.Each of the NAP chapters set out a vision, objectives and specific actions that will be taken to address the priority climate risks and opportunities that in the Government’s view require the most urgent attention. – A total of 31 objectives consisting of 374 specific action (125 high level).Responsibility for completing these actions and objectives lies with the relevant government department and key members of the private and third sectors – a mainstreamed approach.The Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change has a statutory duty to report to Parliament on the UK Government’s progress against these actions and objectives.
6 Adaptation indicators – The Challenge Measuring adaptation is highly challenging – Much harder than mitigation!MitigationAdaptationTargets and metricsClear national target: 80% by 2050Standard metric exists to measure progress across all sectors (carbon emissions)No national-level targets.No standard metric across sectorsUncertaintyMost emission sources identified, being monitored & addressedUncertainty in climate projections.Not all risks understoodContextGlobal atmosphereClimate impacts are national, regional and local
7 IndicatorsIn 2015 the ASC will produce a formal report on the UK’s progress toward implementing the action in the National Adaptation Programme.This will require the development of a number of adaptation indicators, many of which have been in development over the last four years, through the ASC’s Progress Reports.Progress will be assessed against high priority risks as laid out in the Climate Change Risk Assessment.The focus will be on outcome indicators and will be categorised into the following 4 categories:Trends in exposure– factors that may be increasing the presence of people, infrastructure, or other economic, social, or environmental assets in places that could be adversely affected by climate impacts, such as developing in the floodplain.Trends in vulnerability – factors that may be increasing the propensity or predisposition of people, infrastructure, or other economic, social or environmental assets to be adversely affected by climate impacts, such as the condition of infrastructure or the state of climate-sensitive wildlife habitats.Adaptation actions – factors that are likely to be reducing vulnerability to climate risks or helping to take advantage of opportunities, such as the uptake of property-level flood protection measures or the sales of adaptation goods and services.Realised impacts – tracking over time the actual impacts of climate hazards on the UK’s economy, society and environment, such as insured losses from flooding or the proportion of transport delays caused by severe weather. Whilst there is year-on-year variability in impacts and it will be difficult to attribute single weather events to climate change, monitoring trends in impacts will serve as a useful benchmark. Over time we may be able to ascertain whether there is a link between trends in impacts and the uptake of actions to reduce risk.
8 Indicators - Risk Assessment framework IPCC Definition of Climate RiskRealised impactsTrends in vulnerabilityAdaptation actionsTrends in exposure
9 Indicators – The ASC Approach The ASC have identified and characterised over 250 indicators spread across the 7 NAP themes.Each NAP chapter has been broken down by its key risks and opportunities.Indicators characterised into the four groups: Exposure, vulnerability, actions and realised impactsData drawn from a wide range of sources:Government statistical publicationsTrade body informationPolicy responsesConsultancy researchStakeholder engagementMainly publically availableCommissioned research to plug gapsMost indicators not originally designed foradaptationASC running a consultation on indicators – viewswelcome
10 Indicators – how they are classified NAP ThemeNumber of indicatorsBuilt Environment54Infrastructure71Health34Agriculture and Forestry32Natural Environment46Business19Local Authority4The ~ 250 indicators are split by the four categories and specific risks and opportunities.Therefore, some theme-risk categories are more represented than others.
11 Indicators – Examples Built Environment (BE) Infrastructure (IN) Increased flooding/severe weatherAnnual rate of development on flood plainExposureReduced water availabilityNumber/proportion of water companies with a low Security of Supply IndexVulnerabilityIntensified urban heat island effectArea of green roofs installedActionInfrastructure (IN)Volume of rail passengers/freight at risk of flooding/subsidence/coastal erosionNumber/proportion of power stations reliant on freshwater with efficient cooling systemsIncreased sewer overspillsNumber/proportion of water company sewer assets in poor conditionHealthy & Resilient Communities (HCR)Increased extreme temperaturesImplementation of Heatwave Action PlanLocal authority expenditure on emergency planning and responseOther climate-related health risksLevels of indoor damp/mould
12 Indicators - Examples Agriculture & Forestry (AF) Potential for new crops/increased yieldsInvestment in research into new crops/yieldsOpportunityReduced water availability/increased aridityProportion of abstraction for irrigation from catchments at risk of water scarcityExposureReduced soil productivityProportion/area of Best and Most Versatile agricultural land losing soil carbonVulnerabilityIncreased flooding/waterloggingProportion/area of Best and Most Versatile agricultural land in areas with a high likelihood of floodingIncreased pests and pathogensAgricultural losses from pests/pathogensImpactNatural Environment (NE)Changes to climate spaceArea of terrestrial Priority Habitat being created/restored per yearActionReduction in ecosystem goods and servicesProportion/area of degraded deep peat habitats being restoredReduced water availability/qualityLevels of nutrient enrichment in freshwater habitatsVulnerabilityBusiness (BUS)Sales of adaptation goods and servicesValue of exports of adaptation goods and services per yearOpportunityIncreased flooding/severe weatherProportion/number of businesses at risk signing-up to Flood WarningsReduced water availabilityLosses to businesses from reduced water availabilityImpactDisruption to supply chainsProportion of UK-based companies with supply chains reliant on countries at high risk from climate changeExposureLocal Government (LG)Various priority risksProportion of local authorities who have signed up to Climate Local and/or the Cities Commitment
13 Next steps and contacts ASC to publish 2014 progress report on July 9thFocus for this year is infrastructure , business, health and emergency planning (‘Adapting to Climate Change: climate risks to the economy and well-being’)Consultation on indicators to be launched to gather feedback on the ASC’s indicators as defined so far. – Identify any gapsStatutory report on the NAP to be delivered next year (July 2015).For further information on indicators and the Adaptation Sub Committee please contact Dave Thompson: