Presentation on theme: "Vehicle to Grid Power Analysis Seminar NREL, Washington, DC 28 September 2005 Willett Kempton University of Delaware."— Presentation transcript:
Vehicle to Grid Power Analysis Seminar NREL, Washington, DC 28 September 2005 Willett Kempton University of Delaware
Four Big Problems Global climate change. Evidence in the past two years suggest far more risk than before. Peak oil production; demand from China and India soaring; $200B/year in Middle East wars. US economy extraordinarily vulnerable to external supply and distant politics. Renewable energy plentiful and now cheap, limited by intermittent supply.
An Unexpected Synergy It may be easier to solve all of these problems at once than one at a time. Vehicle to Grid power (“V2G”) as a bridging technology.
Vehicle to Grid Arrows indicate direction of power flow
V2G Basic Math Average car driven 1 hour/day --> time parked is 23 hours/day Daily average travel: 32 miles Practical power draw from car: 10 - 20 kW US power generation=811 GW; load=417 GW US 191 million cars x 15 kW = 2,865 GW
How Much Power? DenmarkUKUSA Avg. Electric Load (GW) 3.640417 Light vehicles (10 6 ) 1.928.5191 Vehicle GW (if electric drive @ 15 kW each) 294272,865
How Much Power? DenmarkUKUSA Avg. Electric Load (GW) 3.640417 Light vehicles (10 6 ) 1.928.5191 Vehicle GW (if electric drive @ 15 kW each) 294272,865... power in cars >> generation or load
Which vehicles will be available first? Fuel cell? Plug-in hybrid? Battery? (all work for V2G, distinct advantages for each)
NRC Review of H 2 "Since using hydrogen as a transportation fuel would necessitate several significant breakthroughs, other alternatives to achieve the program goals should be explored and additional research supported if such alternatives show comparable prospects for success. The committee suggests that high-energy batteries for pure battery electric vehicles might be such an alternative. " From: Executive Summary, “Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership”, National Research Council, draft, August 2005, page ES-5 (www.nap.edu/execsumm_pdf/11406.pdf)www.nap.edu/execsumm_pdf/11406.pdf
Revolution in Battery Technology Today’s automotive starter batteries: Lead- acid RAV4 EV (and Toyota Prius hybrid battery): Nickel Metal-hydride New batteries based on Lithium, Li-ion or Li-polymer: 5x lighter for same energy! These advances make possible large battery storage for vehicles.
Mitsubishi Colt platform In-wheel motor 13 kWh Li-ion, 2 x 20kW in-wheel motors; developing 50 kW in-wheel motor
Toyota Scion conversion by AC Propulsion “We plan to manufacture safety- certified electric vehicle conversions and sell them to retail and fleet customers. The conversions will be based on the Scion xA and xB, the new sport compact vehicles built by Toyota...
Toyota Scion conversion by AC Propulsion “We plan to manufacture safety- certified electric vehicle conversions and sell them to retail and fleet customers. The conversions will be based on the Scion xA and xB, the new sport compact vehicles built by Toyota... “We plan two models, a base model, and a premium with a larger battery. The base model will outperform the RAV4 EV and is expected to sell for about the same price.”
OEM Automobile Logic Automobile as receiver of petroleum; isolated from other energy systems Engine as the primary value added, owned by OEM (other components commodity items, from suppliers) Expertise in combustion, mechanical engineering, low-cost production No expertise or IP in electrochemistry, power electronics, power markets Consumer’s performance space inviolable
BEV and PHEV Logic Non-fossil carriers essential to the future Hydrogen unlikely, especially in the near term, thus electricity primary carrier CO2 displacement very large, especially with hydro or wind Electricity as carrier leads to V2G logic...
V2G Logic Cars: A power resource too large to ignore V2G makes electric power capacity cheap, but electric energy is still expensive Today, market value for grid management Future, enable very large renewable energy Optimize design for both transport and electric system -- OEMs will not do this
Example logical disconnect: The Plug OEM: stay at 110 VAC, 2 kW is plenty for overnight charging, use off-the-shelf power components, no electrician needed (save $500), anyway where’s the V2G rate schedule? V2G: add 15kW connection, get fast charge, sell regulation services (add revenue of $3,000/year), start with regional markets.
Example logical disconnect: The Plug OEM: stay at 110 VAC, 2 kW is plenty for overnight charging, use off-the-shelf power components, no electrician needed (save $500), anyway where’s the V2G rate schedule? V2G: add 15kW connection, get fast charge, sell regulation services (add revenue of $3,000/year), start with regional markets. The OEMs don’t get it. They aren’t going to get it until someone else puts the pieces together and shows how it works.
Better to demonstrate the V2G business model without OEMs
V2G revenues mean we can afford to make cars that costs $10K too much Less capitalized manufacturing process allows design refinements as we understand the businesses The critical cost barriers are components, not low-cost assembly
Which power markets? Not bulk power, because costs > revenue Ideal to start selling mostly power (capacity) not so much energy... ancillary services (A/S) A/S: Regulation, spinning reserves, reactive power, etc ~ $10B/year in US Vehicle can run regulation while parked and charging (next slides)
A sequence of markets High value regulation great for buying down initially high vehicle cost About 1 - 3% of the vehicle fleet saturates regulation, up to perhaps 4-5% saturates other A/S, then start selling peak power As V2G costs drop and A/S saturates, start selling storage for intermittent renewables (8-38% of fleet enables 50% wind!) So, let’s look at some business models...
PJM A/S Regulation: Single Vehicles Average DPL costs for Ancillary Service regulation: $6,800,000/year ($6.8M) Average PJM regulation contract price in 2003 was $38.33 $/MW-h Single vehicle, 15 kW, available 18 h/d, A/S reg -> $3777 revenue/year PJM contracts 1 MW, so, need an aggregator (e.g., Delmarva, Verizon Cellular or...)
A/S Regulation: Fleet operator as IPP 100 vehicles, parked 18h/d (16 h * 5 days + 24 h * 2 days), 80% available, each 20 kW A/S regulation services at $38/MW-h. Single connection point, single meter, 2 MW peak “generator” --> higher ISO comfort Revenue: 100*18h*365d*.8*.02MW*$38= $400,000/year revenue from fleet ($4,000/car/year)
Regional assembly Buy gasoline vehicle, modify to electric with V2G 10 lifts in a 10,000-15,000 ft 2 warehouse, 15-20 employees, produce 250 cars/year, 2 shifts=500 Vehicle conversion local, battery assembly local, cars sourced from OEM, drive sourced from AC Propulsion, national/local sourcing of: gearbox, wiring harness, non-drive electronics, metal parts. Production could start in 12 - 18 months!
Assembler Finances Engineer for each platform: Cost about $1 - $2M for engineering and testing. Add $2M for NTSA crash tests, manufacturer certification. Set up shop for $US 0.4 to 1.0 million; working capital about $3 m Assembler cost breakpoints at 500, 2,000 vehicles/year; OEM cost breaks at 30,000 - 100,000/year Vehicle cost at 250/year perhaps $45k; an argument for public subsidy
Transition Strategy Start simple: Battery now, e-hybrid later Small fleets: 100 car V2G fleet = 1 MW; demonstrate V2G business models Production in several regions, develop technology, drive down component costs Develop standards for V2G (e.g. response time, metering, at least 10 kW/car, drawdown limits, etc) THEN we need the OEMs, low-cost production at > 50,000 cars/year
How to launch a V2G industry? Well under $20 M gets several fleets going OR, a couple of state PUCs could allow/ratebase/require their IOUs to buy 100 vehicle size V2G fleets OR, a municipal government or urban peak power user could provide free CBD parking & free charge in exchange for V2G OR, a state legislature could use a small gasoline, electric, or car registration fee to buy down initial costs of V2G vehicles
Vision One-half vehicle fleet is electric drive: battery plus plug-in hybrid One-half of electric energy from wind, eventually other renewables Climate change is greatly slowed down; US can survive (a while) without foreign oil CO2-free electricity, high-penetration intermittent renewables, and CO2-free transportation: an unexpected and dramatic synergy