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Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Food Security in an Uncertain Future Alex De Pinto Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Food Security in an Uncertain Future Alex De Pinto Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Food Security in an Uncertain Future Alex De Pinto Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute 2010 CAADP A FRICA F ORUM, October 2010

2 Food Security Challenges are Unprecedented  Population growth 50 percent more people by 2050 Almost all in developing countries  Income growth in developing countries More demand for high valued food (meat, fruits, vegetables)  Climate change – exacerbates existing threats, generates new ones Page 2

3 UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE SCENARIO BUILDING Page 3

4 Rising average temperatures historically Page 4 Source:

5 IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios: Population and GDP Growth Assumptions  A1 The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. Characterized by: Rapid economic growth. A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. The quick spread of new and efficient technologies. A convergent world - income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide.  A2 The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations. Continuously increasing population. Regionally oriented economic development. Slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income.  B1 The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy. Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1. Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.  B2 The B2 scenarios are of a world more divided, but more ecologically friendly. The B2 scenarios are characterized by: Continuously increasing population, but at a slower rate than in A2. Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. Intermediate levels of economic development. Less rapid and more fragmented technological change than in A1 and B1.. Page 5

6 Current CO 2 emissions are higher than most scenarios Page 6 Source: (Manning et al., 2010)

7 The Role of General Circulation Models (GCMs) Page 7  GCMs are mathematical models of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere  Applied for weather forecasting, understanding the climate, and projecting climate change

8 Temperature could increase much more Page 8 Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)

9 Change in average annual precipitation, , CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm) Page 9

10 Change in average annual precipitation, , MIROC GCM, A1B (mm) Page 10

11 Page 11 CNRM A2 ECHAM5 A2 CSIRO A2 MIROC3.2 A2

12 How Climate Change Affects Agriculture  Lower yields for crops and livestock from Higher temperatures Changes in precipitation patterns Extreme events  Sea level rise  Climate change will bring location-specific changes in precipitation, temperature and variability  There will be winners and losers! Page 12

13 Yield Effects, Irrigated Rice, CSIRO A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate) Page 13

14 Yield Effects, Irrigated Rice, MIROC A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)

15 Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, CSIRO A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)

16 Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, MIROC A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate) Page 16

17 Lost agricultural area from sea level rise With 1 meter rise (000 ha) With 3 meter rise (000 ha) Myanmar2951,214 Thailand Cambodia35118 Vietnam2,5134, percent of Vietnam rice growing area

18 Climate change reduces average yields of current varieties (percent change) Crop/ management system Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia and Pacific South Asia Irrigated rice NCAR CSIRO Rainfed maize NCAR CSIRO Rainfed wheat NCAR CSIRO Page 18 Sub-Saharan Africa badly affected

19 CHARACTERIZING PLAUSIBLE FUTURES Overall (Economic and Demographic) Scenarios under Varying Climate Futures Page 19

20 Overall Scenarios: Population and GDP Growth Assumptions  Baseline – Medium GDP and medium population growth  Optimistic – High GDP and low population growth  Pessimistic – Low GDP and high population growth Page 20

21 Global and Regional GDP per capita growth scenarios Page 21 pessimisticbaselineoptimistic Central Africa Western Africa Eastern Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa PopulationGDPGDP per capita Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic Global growth rate assumptions, annual average (%) African income per capita growth rate assumptions, annual average (%)

22 Climate Scenarios  Climate scientists “All scenarios have equal probability.”  Our modeling approach For each overall scenario, use 2 GCMs and two SRES scenarios, chosen for wide range of global average precipitation outcomes GCMs – MIROC (Japanese) and CSIRO (Australian) SRES scenarios – A1B and B1 Data from 4 th IPCC assessment Page 22

23 IMPACTS: FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND, TRADE, FOOD SECURITY Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models and economic effects from global partial equilibrium agriculture model

24 Global Change Model Components  GCM climate scenarios  Assumptions of Pop. And GDP growth  DSSAT crop modeling system Biophysical crop response to temp and precipitation at 5 arc minute resolution (10 km pixels at equator)  IFPRI Spatial Allocation Model - SPAM Spatial distribution of crops based on crop calendars, soil characteristics, climate of 20 most important crops  IMPACT Global food supply demand trade model. Results to 2050 with global hydrology and crop model results

25 Climate Change Makes Food Price Increases Greater Page MIROC NoCF Greater price increases with climate change

26 Mean Price Increases, Overall Scenarios (2000$/mt) Page 26 Mean baseline price increase – 57% Preliminary results

27 Mean Price Increases, Overall Scenarios (2000$/mt) Page 27 Mean baseline price increase – 106% Preliminary results

28 Mean Price Increases , Overall Scenarios (2000$/mt) Page 28 Mean baseline price increase – 67% Preliminary results

29 Developed Country, Change in Net Exports of Cereals, (million mt) Page 29 With perfect mitigation, DC net cereal exports grow. With climate change, DC net cereal exports grow less or decline. Preliminary results

30 Comparing the Effects of Climate Change to Economic Development Page 30 Optimistic scenario Pessimistic scenario Perfect mitigation (Ave. Kcals/day) Developed countries All developing countries Low income developing countries Preliminary results

31 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTS

32 Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation  Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition with climate change to the level with no climate change  What types of investments are considered? Public sector agricultural research Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements Rural roads Page 32

33 Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion per Year  Required additional annual expenditure in developing countries  “Wetter” NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion  “Drier” CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion Research - $1.3 billion Irrigation - $3.0 billion Rural roads - $3.0 billion Page 33

34 Regional Results  Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for rural roads  South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency  Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research  East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency Page 34

35 Adaptation Strategies  Good development policies and programs are good adaptation practices  Revitalize national research and extension systems  Invest in Rural roads Irrigation area and efficiency  Global data collection and information sharing Page 35

36 Agriculture can play a role in mitigating climate change  Modifying and introducing agricultural practices so that: Sequester CO 2 from atmosphere and store it soils Reduce GHG emissions  Receive payments for this environmental service

37 Conclusions  Food security challenges from income and population growth are serious.  Climate change worsens the food security challenge regardless of realized climate  Strong economic growth is critical for food security and resilience to climate change  International trade flows help compensate for differing productivity effects of climate change  It is critical to start now to address the challenges! Page 37

38 Thank you/Merci beaucoup


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