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Alex De Pinto Research Fellow

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Presentation on theme: "Alex De Pinto Research Fellow"— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Food Security in an Uncertain Future
Alex De Pinto Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute 2010 CAADP Africa Forum, October 2010

2 Food Security Challenges are Unprecedented
Population growth 50 percent more people by 2050 Almost all in developing countries Income growth in developing countries More demand for high valued food (meat, fruits, vegetables) Climate change – exacerbates existing threats, generates new ones Page 2

3 Understanding Climate Change AND FUTURE SCENARIO BUILDING
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4 Rising average temperatures historically
A well known graph, this presents the historical record of rising temperatures since the mid-18th century. The vertical axis indicates an increase on the order of ½- 3/4th degree Celsius over the past 100 years Source: Page 4

5 IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios: Population and GDP Growth Assumptions
The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. Characterized by: Rapid economic growth. A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. The quick spread of new and efficient technologies. A convergent world - income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. A2 The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations. Continuously increasing population. Regionally oriented economic development. Slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income. B1 The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy. Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1. Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. B2 The B2 scenarios are of a world more divided, but more ecologically friendly. The B2 scenarios are characterized by: Continuously increasing population, but at a slower rate than in A2. Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. Intermediate levels of economic development. Less rapid and more fragmented technological change than in A1 and B1. . Page 5

6 Current CO2 emissions are higher than most scenarios
Source: (Manning et al., 2010) Page 6

7 The Role of General Circulation Models (GCMs)
GCMs are mathematical models of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere Applied for weather forecasting, understanding the climate, and projecting climate change Page 7

8 Temperature could increase much more
When we use climate change models with a range of possible GHG emissions the outcomes by the end of this century range from near stabilization if all GHG emissions stop today (the orange line to over 3 degrees more (the A2 red line). Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007) Page 8

9 Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm)
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10 Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, MIROC GCM, A1B (mm)
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11 CNRM A2 CSIRO A2 ECHAM5 A2 MIROC3.2 A2 Page 11

12 How Climate Change Affects Agriculture
Lower yields for crops and livestock from Higher temperatures Changes in precipitation patterns Extreme events Sea level rise Climate change will bring location-specific changes in precipitation, temperature and variability There will be winners and losers! Page 12

13 Yield Effects, Irrigated Rice, CSIRO A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)
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14 Yield Effects, Irrigated Rice, MIROC A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)

15 Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, CSIRO A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)

16 Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, MIROC A1B (% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)
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17 Lost agricultural area from sea level rise
With 1 meter rise (000 ha) With 3 meter rise (000 ha) Myanmar 295 1,214 Thailand 199 796 Cambodia 35 118 Vietnam 2,513 4,281 30 percent of Vietnam rice growing area A 1 meter rise is expected by the end of this century. Note that the Vietnam effect doesn’t take into increased salinization. Vietnamese scientists report that this is already becoming a problem, even before much sea level rise has taken place.

18 Climate change reduces average yields of current varieties (percent change)
Crop/ management system Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia and Pacific South Asia Irrigated rice NCAR -14.1 -19.8 -15.5 CSIRO -11.4 -13.0 -17.5 Rainfed maize -4.6 1.5 -7.8 -2.4 -3.9 -2.9 Rainfed wheat -21.9 -14.8 -44.4 -19.3 -16.1 -43.7 Sub-Saharan Africa badly affected Focus on color of numbers. Only 1 is black, ie where yield increase. All others are red/negative. And rainfed wheat in South Asia is especially badly affected. Page 18

19 Characterizing Plausible futures
Overall (Economic and Demographic) Scenarios under Varying Climate Futures Page 19

20 Overall Scenarios: Population and GDP Growth Assumptions
Baseline – Medium GDP and medium population growth Optimistic – High GDP and low population growth Pessimistic – Low GDP and high population growth Page 20

21 Global and Regional GDP per capita growth scenarios
Global growth rate assumptions, annual average (%) Population GDP GDP per capita Pessimistic 1.04 1.91 0.86 Baseline 0.70 3.21 2.49 Optimistic 0.35 3.58 3.22 African income per capita growth rate assumptions, annual average (%) pessimistic baseline optimistic Central Africa 2.42 3.92 4.85 Western Africa 2.04 3.63 4.03 Eastern Africa 2.72 4.18 4.97 Northern Africa 1.78 2.60 3.49 Southern Africa 0.55 2.98 3.44 Page 21

22 Climate Scenarios Climate scientists “All scenarios have equal probability.” Our modeling approach For each overall scenario, use 2 GCMs and two SRES scenarios, chosen for wide range of global average precipitation outcomes GCMs – MIROC (Japanese) and CSIRO (Australian) SRES scenarios – A1B and B1 Data from 4th IPCC assessment A1 The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. The A1 family of scenarios is characterized by: Rapid economic growth. A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. The quick spread of new and efficient technologies. A convergent world - income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. There are subsets to the A1 family based on their technological emphasis: A1FI - An emphasis on fossil-fuels (Fossil Intensive). A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources. A1T - Emphasis on non-fossil energy sources. A2 The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by: A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations. Continuously increasing population. Regionally oriented economic development. Slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income. B1 The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. The B1 scenarios are characterized by: Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy. Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1. Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. Page 22

23 IMPACTS: FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND, TRADE, FOOD SECURITY
Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models and economic effects from global partial equilibrium agriculture model

24 Global Change Model Components
GCM climate scenarios Assumptions of Pop. And GDP growth DSSAT crop modeling system Biophysical crop response to temp and precipitation at 5 arc minute resolution (10 km pixels at equator) IFPRI Spatial Allocation Model - SPAM Spatial distribution of crops based on crop calendars, soil characteristics, climate of 20 most important crops IMPACT Global food supply demand trade model. Results to 2050 with global hydrology and crop model results

25 Climate Change Makes Food Price Increases Greater
Greater price increases with climate change 2050 MIROC NoCF Prices increase without climate change Page 25

26 Mean Price Increases, Overall Scenarios (2000$/mt)
Mean baseline price increase – 57% Preliminary results Probably due to income effects in China. Slower economic growth means smaller decline in rice consumption. Page 26

27 Mean Price Increases, Overall Scenarios (2000$/mt)
Mean baseline price increase – 106% Preliminary results Maize demand is both for feed and food. These effects offset each other to some extent in pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, but note that it has the largest mean price increase. Page 27

28 Mean Price Increases 2010-2050, Overall Scenarios (2000$/mt)
Mean baseline price increase – 67% Preliminary results Page 28

29 Developed Country, Change in Net Exports of Cereals, 2000-2050 (million mt)
With climate change, DC net cereal exports grow less or decline. With perfect mitigation, DC net cereal exports grow. Preliminary results Page 29

30 Comparing the Effects of Climate Change to Economic Development
Optimistic scenario Pessimistic scenario Developed countries All developing countries Perfect mitigation Low income developing countries Preliminary results (Ave. Kcals/day) (Ave. Kcals/day) Page 30

31 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTS

32 Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation
Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition with climate change to the level with no climate change What types of investments are considered? Public sector agricultural research Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements Rural roads One of the challenges we faced was to figure out what was meant by ag. adaptation to climate change. If the concern were flooding a city on the coast, you could ask an engineer how much it would cost to build a sea wall higher. But farmers respond to changes of all sorts all the time. For example, we see changes in production, consumption, and trade flows all the time. In the end we decided to use the above definition and look to three types of investments to address malnutrition. Page 32

33 Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion per Year
Required additional annual expenditure in developing countries “Wetter” NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion “Drier” CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion Research - $1.3 billion Irrigation $3.0 billion Rural roads - $3.0 billion Some important things to note. These estimates are conservative. They don’t include the costs of dealing with sea level rise, increased river variability because of glacier melting, extreme events, and effects from pests and diseases. The expenditures differ by region. For example, in SSA rural road expansion takes a large share. In South Asia it is irrigation efficiency. But research is important everywhere. Page 33

34 Regional Results Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for rural roads South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency Page 34

35 Adaptation Strategies
Good development policies and programs are good adaptation practices Revitalize national research and extension systems Invest in Rural roads Irrigation area and efficiency Global data collection and information sharing Page 35

36 Agriculture can play a role in mitigating climate change
Modifying and introducing agricultural practices so that: Sequester CO2 from atmosphere and store it soils Reduce GHG emissions Receive payments for this environmental service

37 Conclusions Food security challenges from income and population growth are serious. Climate change worsens the food security challenge regardless of realized climate Strong economic growth is critical for food security and resilience to climate change International trade flows help compensate for differing productivity effects of climate change It is critical to start now to address the challenges! Page 37

38 Thank you/Merci beaucoup
Thank you/Merci beaucoup


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