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Livestock Markets and Outlook Spring Livestock Conference 2013 Douglas County, Oregon April 13, 2013 James G. Robb Director

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Presentation on theme: "Livestock Markets and Outlook Spring Livestock Conference 2013 Douglas County, Oregon April 13, 2013 James G. Robb Director"— Presentation transcript:

1 Livestock Markets and Outlook Spring Livestock Conference 2013 Douglas County, Oregon April 13, 2013 James G. Robb Director

2 USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Foundation CoBank TCFA CWB TCU 29 land Grant Universities:

3 Topics: Markets and … Grain/Feedstuff Markets Corn A Quick Look at Hay Aspects of U.S. Consumer Beef Demand International Trade Comments: Beef & Cattle Poultry, Pork and Lamb Market Comments Cattle Markets and Outlook Economic Environment Summary USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS All Forecasts – LMIC

4 Grain/Feedstuffs

5 Drought – A Game Changer

6

7 Data Source: USDA-AMS

8 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

9 Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

10 Data Source: USDA-AMS

11 Data Source: USDA-NASS

12 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

13 US Consumer Demand and Consumption (Disappearance)

14 Data Source: Dept. Commerce-BEA

15 Data Source: Department of Commerce-BEA

16 Data Source: LMIC

17 Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

18

19 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 International Trade Comments

21 Data Source: IMF

22 Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS

23

24 Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

25

26 Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

27

28

29 Data Source: USDA-AMS & APHIS

30

31

32 Chicken, Pork and Lamb

33 Data Source: USDA-NASS

34 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

35

36 Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

37 Data Source: USDA-AMS

38 Data Source: USDA-NASS

39 Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

40 Data Source: USDA-AMS

41 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

42 Cattle Market

43 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

44 CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2012 TO JANUARY 2013 (1000 Head) Data Source: USDA-NASS U.S. Total: -862

45 Data Source: USDA-NASS

46

47 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

48 Commercial Beef Production Total Cattle Inventory Data Source: USDA-NASS

49 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

50 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Forecasts by LMIC

51 Data Source: USDA-AMS

52

53

54 Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC

55 Latest Data: March 2013 Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC

56 Economic Environment …. Domestic Consumer Demand has Stabilized and is Slowly Improving for Red Meats. Recession versus +3% GDP Growth? Foreign Beef Demand Strong but Slipping Price Volatility Will Continue (Globalization, Ethanol, etc.) Market Shocks Will Continue ( ; BSE; 2008 Credit Crisis) Market Segmentation Accelerating Economic Incentive to Grow U.S. Cowherd Overcome by Drought Controls Already Set to Dramatically Reduced Beef Output High Feedstuff Price Range Expected to Continue Headwind to Calf and Yearling Prices -- Compressed Margins for Cattle Feeders and Beef Packers Mistakes Are Costly, Sound Business Practices Required Agile Firms Will Benefit…. Be Adaptable NOT Adapted

57 Thank You!


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