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República Bolivariana de Venezuela Ministerio de Finanzas Venezuela: Economic and Financial Summary June 9, 2004 Washington, DC.

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Presentation on theme: "República Bolivariana de Venezuela Ministerio de Finanzas Venezuela: Economic and Financial Summary June 9, 2004 Washington, DC."— Presentation transcript:

1 República Bolivariana de Venezuela Ministerio de Finanzas Venezuela: Economic and Financial Summary June 9, 2004 Washington, DC

2 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 2 Key Messages With the issuance of U.S.$1bn in FRNs due 2011 on April 22nd, Venezuela completed its foreign-currency financing As of today, the Republic has paid down 83% of domestic amortizations, tackling a front-loaded domestic-debt amortization schedule The Ministry of Finance holds U.S.$1.9bn of funds raised through refinancing and restructuring authorizations In 2004, debt management has concentrated in balancing the risks in the composition of funding, after a reentry in foreign markets in 2003 Debt Management

3 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 3 Economic Indicators

4 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 4 International Reserves and Oil Price June 7, U.S.$23.1Bn International Reserves (U.S.$Bn) Venezuela Basket (U.S.$ per barrel) Average YTD 2004 * U.S.$ 30.0pb U.S.$ 34.5pb * Source: Banco Central de Venezuela and MF Source: Ministerio de Energía y Minas and MF (*) As of June 4 Mar 20, 2003: U.S.$9.0Bn 2001 Avg. $20.3pb 2002Avg. $22.2pb 2003Avg. $25.5pb

5 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 5 Economic Activity Real GDP yoy % change

6 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 6 Inflation 21.8% 38.7% Average % Source: Banco Central de Venezuela and MF

7 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 7 Cost of Funding 44.0% 90-day Treasury Bill (YTM) Source: Ministry of Finance ,474 JP Morgan EMBIG ® (Venezuela Component, Stripped Spread, bps) Source: JP Morgan and Ministry of Finance % 671

8 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 8 Non-oil Tax Revenues: Q1’04 Results (Billion of bolivars) Total Non-Oil Tax Revenues Internal Revenues Customs Duties 2004 Q1 Budget3,589.62, Q1 Results4,775.13,618.81,156.3 Q1’04 Results vs. Budget 33.0%34.3%29.2% 2003 Q1 Results2,287.61, Q1’04 vs. Q1’ %100.7%138.8% Source: SENIAT and MF

9 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 9 Debt Indicators Debt to GDP increases during 2002 and 2003 were mainly due to an accumulated 17% real GDP contraction for the period and exchange-rate effects on the external debt balance % of PIB

10 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 10 Fiscal Indicators

11 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 11 Consolidated Public Sector (% of GDP) * 2003 * USES8.4%3.7%0.6%9.2%7.8%9.7% Deficit (Surplus)4.3%-0.7%-4.3%4.5%1.0%-1.2% Amortizations4.2%4.5%4.9%4.8%6.9%10.9% Domestic0.9%1.6%2.6%2.7%3.6%4.1% External3.3%2.9%2.3%2.0%3.3%6.8% SOURCES8.4%3.7%0.6%9.2%7.8%9.7% Domestic3.9%2.3%3.9%8.0%3.0%2.0% External4.5%1.4%-3.2%1.3%4.8%7.7% o/w FIEM0.0%-0.2%-3.6%-1.2%3.3%2.5% Source: Ministry of Finance (*) Preliminary

12 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 12 Central Government (% of GDP) Source: Ministry of Finance (*) Preliminary (F) Forecast * 2003 * 2004 F USES-2.8%-3.7%-4.5%-7.1%-8.1%-11.9%-8.7% Deficit-3.8%-1.6% -4.2%-3.3%-3.9%-2.5% Amortizations1.0%-2.0%-2.9% -4.7%-8.1%-6.2% Domestic1.7%-0.4%-1.4%-1.3%-2.2%-3.5%-3.0% External-0.7%-1.6%-1.5% -2.5%-4.6%-3.2% SOURCES2.6%3.6%4.4%6.6%7.7%11.9%8.7% Domestic0.8%3.0%5.1%4.7%4.3%8.2%4.0% External1.8%0.6%-0.7%1.9%3.3%7.0%4.7% Markets4.7%3.2% Multi/Bila1.8%1.5% FIEM-1.7%0.1%1.7%0.5%0.0% Other-3.3%0.0%

13 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 13 Debt Management in 2004 January 7 March 16 March 22 March 24 March 25 U.S.$1,000mn 9.375% 2034 Global First Investment Units Offering: U.S.$1,500mn U.S.$500mn 1.15% 6-month Note U.S.$500mn Bolivar-denominated FRN due 2008 U.S.$500mn Bolivar-denominated FRN due 2009 First Tender for Bolivar-denominated debt U.S.$720mn of debt maturing in 2004 Second Investment Units Offering: U.S.$1,500mn U.S.$500mn 1.15% 6-month Note U.S.$500mn Bolivar-denominated FRN due 2009 U.S.$500mn Bolivar-denominated FRN due 2010 Ministry of Finance advances payment for U.S.$465mn of March 26th and 29th maturities Ministry of Finance buys-back U.S.$584mn for Bolivar-denominated debt U.S.$251mn of debt maturing in 2004 U.S.$334mn of debt maturing in 2005

14 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 14 Debt Management in 2004 (Cont.) April 7 April 12 May 5 June 7 U.S$1,000mn Libor 3m+100bps 2011 Reg S. Ministry of Finance buys-back U.S.$133mn for Bolivar-denominated debt U.S.$75mn of debt maturing in 2004 U.S.$58mn of debt maturing in 2005 Ministry of Finance buys-back U.S.$257mn of Bolivar-denominated debt maturing in 2004 held by government agencies Ministry of Finance Tenders U.S.$1,000mn of U.S.$-denominated notes maturing in Sep 2004

15 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 15 Domestic Amortization Profile % of amortizations fell in 2004 and % of amortizations fell in between 2004 and Billion of Bolivars

16 República Bolivariana de Venezuela Funding FUNDING NEEDS8.7% Global % Units Offering (Bs)2.2% Units Offering (U.S.$)1.1% FRN % Weekly Auctions0.8% COMPLETED6.1% REMAINING2.6% Domestic1.1% Multi/Bila1.5%

17 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 17 Venezuela: a Worthwhile Investment JP Morgan EMBIG ® (Venezuela Component minus composite, Stripped Spread, bps) Source: JP Morgan and Ministry of Finance

18 Venezuela: Economic and Financial Update June 2004


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