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© 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST ACCESS TO SUCCESS IN AMERICA: Where Are We? What Can We Do? University of Missouri Kansas City October, 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST ACCESS TO SUCCESS IN AMERICA: Where Are We? What Can We Do? University of Missouri Kansas City October, 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST ACCESS TO SUCCESS IN AMERICA: Where Are We? What Can We Do? University of Missouri Kansas City October, 2012

2 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST America: Two Enduring Stories

3 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 1. Land of Opportunity: Work hard, and you can become anything you want to be.

4 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 2. Generational Advancement: Through hard work, each generation of parents can assure a better life — and better education — for their children.

5 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Powerful narratives. No longer true.

6 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Within the U.S., income inequality has been rising.

7 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Earnings among the lowest income families have declined, even amid big increases at the top. Source: The College Board, “Trends in College Pricing 2011” (New York: College Board, 2010), Figure 16A.

8 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Note: Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates total income equality and 1 indicates total income inequality. Instead of being the most equal, the U.S. has the third highest income inequality among OECD nations. United States Source: United Nations, U.N. data, http://data.un.org/DocumentData.aspx?q=gini&id=271: 2011http://data.un.org/DocumentData.aspx?q=gini&id=271

9 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Unemployment Poverty Median Earnings

10 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: For people of color, the past few years have brought an economic tsunami.

11 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Real Median Annual Income 20072011Percent Change Black Head of Household 35,07231,784- 9.4% Hispanic Head of Household 41,94539,901- 4.9% White Head of Household 59,11156,320- 4.7% Sentier Research, “Household Income Trends During the Recession and Economic Recovery,” 2011.

12 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Change in Median Wealth, 2005–2009 Hispanic HouseholdsDown 66% Black HouseholdsDown 53% Asian HouseholdsDown 54% White HouseholdsDown 16% Source: Rakesh Kochhar, Richard Fry, and Paul Taylor, “Twenty-to-One: Wealth Gaps Rise to Record Highs Between Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics,”Pew Social & Demographic Trends, 2011.

13 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Median Wealth of White Families 20 X that of African Americans 18 X that of Latinos Source: Rakesh Kochhar, Richard Fry, and Paul Taylor, “Twenty-to-One: Wealth Gaps Rise to Record Highs Between Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics,” Pew Social & Demographic Trends, 2011.

14 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Not just wages and wealth, but mobility as well.

15 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST © 2011 THE EDUCATION TRUST U.S. intergenerational mobility was increasing until 1980, but has sharply declined since. Source: Daniel Aaronson and Bhashkar Mazumder. Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the U.S.,1940 to 2000. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP 2005-12: Dec. 2005.

16 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Now, instead of being the “land of opportunity,” the U.S. has one of lowest rates of intergenerational mobility. Source: Tom Hertz, “Understanding Mobility in America” (Washington, D.C.: Center for American Progress, 2006).

17 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST At the macro level, better and more equal education is not the only answer. But at the individual level, it really is.

18 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST College Grads Earn More Julian and Kominski, “Education and Synthetic Work-Life Earnings Estimates,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2011. Note: Data include full-time, year-round workers, those working less than full-time year-round, and those who did not work.

19 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: College Grads Less Likely to be Unemployed U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table A-4, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04htmhttp://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04htm

20 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST They also stand out on the other things we value.

21 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST College graduates more likely to vote U.S. Census Bureau, “Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2008,” May 2010 Note: Data include both those who are and are not registered to vote.

22 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Volunteering in the United States 2009” (2010) Note: Data represent percentage of total population that reported volunteering from September 2008 to September 2009

23 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST College Grads of all races far more likely to be in “Very Good” or “Excellent” Health Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Commission for a Healthier America, 2009

24 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Gallup, “Strong Relationship Between Income and Mental Health” (2007)

25 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST What schools and colleges do, in other words, is hugely important to our economy, our democracy, and our society.

26 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST So, how are we doing?

27 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Over past 30 years, we’ve made a lot of progress on the access side. n/a

28 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Immediate College-Going Up NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-1) and The Condition of Education 2011 (Table A-21-1). Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school

29 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST College-going is up for all groups. NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-3) and The Condition of Education 2011 (Table A-21-2).

30 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Immediate College-Going Increasing for All Racial/Ethnic Groups: 1972 to 2009 Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-3) and The Condition of Education 2011 (Table A-21-2).

31 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST College-Going Generally Increasing for All Income Groups NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-1) and The Condition of Education 2011 (Table A-21-1). Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school

32 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST But though college-going up for students of color, gains among whites are often larger…

33 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST And though college going up for low-income students…

34 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST

35

36 But access isn’t the only issue: There’s a question of access to what…

37 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 1/5 of black and Hispanic students and 2/5 of Pell recipients begin at for-profit colleges Ed Trust analysis of IPEDS Fall enrollment, Fall 2010 (by race) and IPEDS Student Financial Aid survey, 2009-10 (by Pell recipient status).

38 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Ed Trust analysis of IPEDS, 12-Month Enrollment Survey, 12-month headcount enrollment, 2009-10; Majority staff calculation of data provided by U.S. Department of Education, 2008-09 in “Emerging Risk?: An Overview of Growth, Spending, Student Debt and Unanswered Questions in For-Profit Higher Education.” Senate HELP Committee. 24 June 2010; and Ed Trust analysis of FY 2009 data in “Institutional Default Rate Comparison of FY 2007, 2008, and 2009 Cohort Default Rates.” Access to what? For-profit college companies  13% of enrollments  24% of Pell Grants and federal student loan dollars  48% of federal student loan defaults

39 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST And what about graduation?

40 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Black and Latino Freshmen Complete College at Lower Rates Than Other Students 6 -year bachelor’s completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2004 cohort at 4-year institutions NCES (March 2012). First Look: Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2010; Graduation Rates, 2004 and 2007 Cohorts; and Financial Statistics Fiscal Year 2010.

41 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 41 Overall rate: 22.5% Graduation rates at public community colleges NCES (March 2012). First Look: Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2010; Graduation Rates, 2004 and 2007 Cohorts; and Financial Statistics Fiscal Year 2010.

42 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Chance of attaining a bachelor’s degree within six years, among students who begin at community college? n/a

43 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 43 Only 12 percent. Percent of students who started at a community college in 2003 and earned a BA degree by 2009 Persistence and Attainment of 2003–04 Beginning Postsecondary Students: After 6 Years First Look, December 2010.

44 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Add it all up…

45 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Different groups of young Americans obtain degrees at very different rates. n/a

46 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Bachelor’s attainment rates for whites are twice as high as blacks and three times as high as Hispanics NCES, Condition of Education 2010 and U.S. Census Bureau, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2011.

47 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST And gaps between groups have grown over time.

48 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Bachelor’s attainment rates for young people from high income families are more than 7 times those from low- income families Postsecondary Education Opportunity, “Bachelor’s Degree Attainment by Age 24 by Family Income Quartiles, 1970 to 2010.”

49 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST These rates threaten health of our democracy. But even for those who don’t care much about that, they are particularly worrisome, given which groups are growing…and which aren’t.

50 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Changing demographics demand greater focus on underrepresented populations. Note: Projected Population Growth, Ages 0-24, 2010-2050 Source: National Population Projections, U.S. Census Bureau. Released 2008; NCHEMS,Adding It Up, 2007 Population Increase, Ages 0-24, (in thousands) Percentage Increase, Ages 0-24,

51 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Not surprisingly, our international lead is slipping away

52 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years, are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs) Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2011 (2011) We’re relatively strong in educational attainment

53 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2011 (2011) Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years, are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs) Our world standing drops to 15 th for younger workers United States OECD Average

54 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years, are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs) Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2011 (2011) We’re near the bottom in intergenerational progress OECD Average United States

55 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST WHAT’S GOING ON? Many in higher education would like to believe that these patterns are mostly a function of lousy high schools and stingy federal and state policymakers.

56 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST They are not all wrong.

57 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST

58 Low Income and Minority Students Continue to be Clustered in Schools where we spend less…

59 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Funding Gaps Between States Gap High-Poverty versus Low-Poverty States –$2,278 per student High-Minority versus Low-Minority States –$2,330 per student

60 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Funding Gaps Within States: National inequities in state and local revenue per student Gap High-Poverty versus Low-Poverty Districts –$773 per student High-Minority versus Low-Minority Districts –$1,122 per student Source: Education Trust analyses of U.S. Department of Education and U.S. Census Bureau data for the 2005-06 school year.

61 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST …expect less

62 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: Prospects (ABT Associates, 1993), in “Prospects: Final Report on Student Outcomes”, PES, DOE, 1997. Students in poor schools receive As for work that would earn Cs in affluent schools.

63 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Students of color are underrepresented in gifted and talented programs. Source: U.S. Department of Education Office for Civil Rights, Civil Rights Data Collection

64 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST …teach them less

65 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: NCES, “Eighth-Grade Algebra: Findings from the Eighth-Grade Round of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K)” (2010). Even African-American students with high math performance in fifth grade are unlikely to be placed in algebra in eighth grade

66 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: Students of color are less likely to attend high schools that offer physics. Source: U.S. Department of Education Office of Civil Rights, Civil Rights Data Collection, March 2012

67 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Students of color are less likely to attend high schools that offer calculus. Source: U.S. Department of Education Office for Civil Rights, Civil Rights Data Collection Percent of Schools Offering Calculus

68 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST …and assign them our least qualified teachers.

69 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: Core classes in high-poverty and high-minority secondary schools are more likely to be taught by out-of-field teachers The Education Trust, Core Problems: Out-of-Field Teaching Persists in Key Academic Courses and High-Poverty Schools, (2008) Note: Data are for secondary-level core academic classes (Math, Science, Social Studies, English) across United States. High-poverty ≥75% of students eligible for free/reduced-price lunch. Low-poverty school ≤15% of students eligible.. High-minority ≥ 75% students non-white. Low-minority ≤ 10% students non-white. High Poverty Low Poverty High Minority Low Minority

70 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: Students at high-minority schools are more likely to be taught by novice teachers Analysis of 2003-2004 Schools and Staffing Survey data by Richard Ingersoll, University of Pennsylvania (2007) Note: Novice teachers are those with three years or fewer experience.. High-minority ≥ 75% students non-white. Low-minority ≤ 10% students non-white.

71 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Tennessee: High-poverty/high-minority schools have fewer of the “most effective” teachers and more “least effective” teachers. Source: Tennessee Department of Education 2007. “Tennessee’s Most Effective Teachers: Are they assigned to the schools that need them most?” http://tennessee.gov/education/nclb/doc/TeacherEffectiveness2007_03.pdf. Note: High poverty/high minority means at least 75 percent of students qualify for FRPL and at least 75 percent are minority.

72 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST A low- income student is 66% more likely to have a low value- added teacher. Los Angeles: LOW-INCOME STUDENTS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE HIGH VALUE-ADDED TEACHERS A low-income student is more than twice as likely to have a low value-added teacher for ELA In math, a student from a relatively more affluent background is 39% more likely to get a high value- added math teacher. ELAMATH A student from a relatively more affluent background is 62% more likely to get a high value-added ELA teacher.

73 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST

74 Source: 4 th Grade Reading: Record Performance with Gap Narrowing NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES *Denotes previous assessment format

75 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: 4 th Grade Math: Record Performance with Gap Narrowing NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES *Denotes previous assessment format

76 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST

77 Source: Achievement flat in reading National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress * Denotes previous assessment format

78 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: Achievement flat in math National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress * Denotes previous assessment format

79 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: 12 th Grade Reading: No Progress, Gaps Wider than 1988 NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES *Denotes previous assessment format

80 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: 12 Grade Math: Results Mostly Flat Gaps Same or Widening NAEP 2008 Trends in Academic Progress, NCES *Denotes previous assessment format

81 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST

82 So, too, are misguided government aid policies

83 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST College costs have increased at 4.5 times the rate of inflation The Education Trust, Lifting the Fog on Inequitable Financial Aid Policies, 2011.

84 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Federal Pell Grants have failed to keep pace with rising college costs 84 Source: American Council on Education (2007). “ Status Report on the Pell Grant Program, 2007” and CRS, Federal Pell Grant Program of the Higher Education Act: Background, Recent Changes, and Current Legislative Issues, 2011. Total Cost of Attendance Covered by Maximum Pell Grant Award

85 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Why? Not because we’re not spending a lot more on student aid. But, rather, because we’ve changed who gets those dollars.

86 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 86 Source: Trends in Student Aid 2010, The College Board 61% of savings from tuition tax credits go to middle- and upper-income families

87 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 87 Source: Trends in Student Aid 2010, The College Board 91% of savings from tuition tax deductions go to middle- and upper-income families Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.

88 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Pattern is the same at state level, even in tough times. Source: Trends in Student Aid 2010, The College Board

89 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 89 Change in Distribution of State Grants Based on Need Source: NASSGAP Report 2008-09: Undergraduate Grant Aid in Constant 2008-09 Dollars: 1998-99 through 2008-09 (in millions of dollars).

90 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Big Effects, too, from State Disinvestment in Public Higher Education.

91 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST So yes, government policy is part of the problem, too.

92 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST But colleges and universities are not unimportant actors in this drama of shrinking opportunity, either. 92

93 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST For one thing, the shifts away from poor students in institutional aid money are MORE PRONOUNCED than the shifts in government aid.

94 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST In 2007, four-year public and private nonprofit colleges spent nearly $15 billion on grant aid. Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:08 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.

95 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST But, they spent a lot of aid on students who didn’t need it. Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:08 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.

96 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Public 4-year colleges used to spend more than twice as much on needy students, but now spend about the same as on wealthy students Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:96 and NPSAS:08 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.

97 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Private nonprofit 4-year colleges used to spend about the same amount on low- and high-income students, but now spend twice as much on wealthy students Education Trust analysis of NPSAS: 96 and NPSAS:08 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.

98 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: © 2011 THE EDUCATION TRUST The result? Low-income students must devote an amount equivalent to 72% of their family income towards college costs Family Income Average Income Cost of Attendance Expected Family Contribution (EFC) Average Grant Aid Unmet Need After EFC and Grant Aid % of Income Required to Pay for College After Grant Aid $0-30,200$17,011$22,007$951$9,704$11,35272% $30,201-54,000$42,661$23,229$4,043$7,694$11,49336% $54,001-80,400$67,844$23,640$10,224$5,352$8,06427% $80,401-115,400$97,594$25,050$18,158$4,554$2,33921% $115,401+$173,474$27,689$37,821$3,822$-13,95314% Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:08 using PowerStats, http://nces.ed.gov/datalab/. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduateshttp://nces.ed.gov/datalab/

99 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST So it’s not all about the students or about government. What colleges do is important in who comes…and who doesn’t.

100 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Moreover, what colleges do also turns out to be very important in whether students graduate or not.

101 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Current College Completion Rates: 4-Year Colleges  Fewer than 4 in 10 (38%) entering freshmen obtain a bachelor’s degree within 4 years  Within six years of entry, that proportion rises to just under 6 in 10 (58%)  If you go beyond IPEDS, and look at graduation from ANY institution, number grows to about two-thirds. NCES (March 2012). First Look: Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2009; Graduation Rates, 2003 and 2006 Cohorts; and Financial Statistics Fiscal Year 2009. Ed Trust analysis of BPS:09.

102 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST But graduation rates vary widely across the nation’s postsecondary institutions Ed Trust analysis of College Results Online dataset 2010.

103 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Some of these differences are clearly attributable to differences in student preparation and/or institutional mission. n/a

104 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Indeed, with enough data on both institutions and students, we can find a way to “explain” more than 70% of the variance among institutions. Ed Trust analysis of College Results Online dataset 2010.

105 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST But…when you dig underneath the averages, one thing is very clear: Some colleges are far more successful than their students’ “stats” would suggest. Ed Trust analysis of College Results Online dataset 2009.

106 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST EdTrust experience: “Our graduation rates are about the same as other institutions that serve similar students.” n/a

107 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST College Results Online www.collegeresults.org College Results Online 2010.

108 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST So, what do you learn? Some institutions that have same mission, same focus and serve essentially same students…get far better results.

109 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Research Institutions Similar Students, Different Results Median SATSize% Pell% URM Overall Grad Rate URM Grad Rate Penn State University 1,20035,70215.0%7.4%84.0%69.9% Indiana University 1,12028,76816.0%6.9%71.9%53.5% Purdue University 1,13531,00817.7%6.8%69.1%52.3% University of Minnesota 1,16528,65419.9%7.5%63.4%43.8% 109

110 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Research Institutions Similar Students, Different Results Median SATSize% Pell% URM Overall Grad Rate URM Grad Rate Florida State University 1,16028,87426%23%68.7%69.9% University of Arizona 1,11025,86723%26%56%44% 110

111 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Masters Institutions – Large Similar Students, Different Results Median SATSize% Pell Overall Graduation Rate University of Northern Iowa 1,0859,94623.8%65.2% Montclair State 1,01510,90826.5%61.2% Eastern Illinois 1,0109,79823.7%60.3% University of Wisconsin Whitewater 1,0308,69020.3%53.1% Tennessee Technological University 1,0457,01429.8%43.5% 111

112 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Historically Black Colleges Similar Students, Different Results Median SATSize% Pell Overall Graduation Rate Elizabeth City 8452,42369.9%50.7% Delaware State 8353,05747.8%37.3% University of Arkansas Pine Bluff 7752,76873.5%32.9% Norfolk State 9004,79854.5%30.8% Coppin State N/A2,80072.6%18.9% 112

113 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Some making fast progress in improving success for students of color, some have closed gaps entirely.

114 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: Biggest Gainers in Success for Latino Students: Public Colleges and Universities Advancing to Completion, 2012, The Education Trust.

115 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: Biggest Gainers in Success for Black Students: Public Colleges and Universities Advancing to Completion, 2012, The Education Trust.

116 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: Universities with No Latino/White Graduation Rate Gaps Advancing to Completion, 2012, The Education Trust.

117 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: Universities with No Black/White Graduation Rate Gaps Advancing to Completion, 2012, The Education Trust.

118 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Bottom Line:  So yes, we have to keep working to improve our high schools;  And yes, government has to do its part;  But we’ve got to focus on changing what our colleges do, too. 118

119 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST What do available data tell us about UMKC?

120 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST UMKC is 14 th in its peer group for 6-year grad rates Source: College Results, 2010

121 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Source: Similar schools to UMKC get different results INSTITUTION 6-YEAR GRAD RATE MEDIAN SAT % PELL % URM SIZECARNEGIE CLASS 1. Rowan University 70.0%1,06526%16%8,778Master’s 3. SUNY College at New Paltz 67.0%1,11527%14%6,093Master’s 6. Richard Stockton College of NJ 64.0%1,05533%15%6,316Master’s 7. George Mason University 63.4%1,14022%17%16,693Research 14. Univ. Missouri – Kansas City 43.4%1,12534%20%7,303Research Source: College Results, 2010

122 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST UMKC loses more students right from the start INSTITUTION 1 st YEAR RETENTION 4-YEAR GRAD RATE 5-YEAR GRAD RATE 6-YEAR GRAD RATE TRANSFER OUT RATE 1. Rowan University 82%43.8%65.4%70.0%18.5% 3. SUNY College at New Paltz 88%42.8%63.3%67.0%23.9% 6. Richard Stockton College of NJ 81%40.4%59.6%64.0%22.8% 7. George Mason University 85%39.3%58.2%63.4%20.7% 14. Univ. of Missouri - Kansas City 74%17.7%31.4%43.4%N/A Source: College Results, 2010

123 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Which students are UKMC losing?

124 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Averages can mask wide gaps in graduation rates between groups of students at UMKC Overall rate: 43% Source: College Results, 2010 6 -year bachelor’s completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2004 cohort at 4-year institutions

125 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST But those averages can still mask gaps within student groups Overall rate: 43% Source: College Results, 2010 6 -year bachelor’s completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2004 cohort at 4-year institutions

126 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Fortunately, UMKC—along with other campuses in the system--is a part of the national Access to Success Initiative… which has pledged to cut in half the gaps in access and success for low-income and minority students by 2015.

127 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST The University of Missouri System Has made great strides in access Enrolling more Pell freshmen and transfers, and narrowing gaps Enrolling more URM freshmen and transfers, and maintains no gaps But still needs more work on success Large and stagnant gap in Pell graduation rates vs. non-Pell Large and growing gap in URM graduation rates vs. non-URM Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

128 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Similarly, UMKC has nearly closed the access gap for low-income and minority students From 2005-2006 to 2009-2010 Low-Income Students Full-Time Freshmen Transfer-In Students % enrollment of low-income students Gap with % low-income students among high school grads Gap almost cut in 1/2 Minority Students % enrollment of URM students Gap with % URM students among high school grads Gap unchanged & stays closed Gap stays closed Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

129 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST And first-year retention rates have also improved for these groups of students University of Missouri – Kansas City First-Year Retention Rates Over Time Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

130 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST However, success rates have remained stagnant or declined Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

131 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST And, graduation-rate gaps for Pell and URM freshmen have widened over time +9+15 +6 +20 Gap has more than tripled for URM freshmen Gap has increased 67% for Pell freshmen Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

132 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Success gaps have also widened for transfer students over time -5 +1 +4 +7 Gap has nearly doubled for URM transfers Gap increases for Pell transfers Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

133 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST What can we learn from the high performers? n/a

134 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 1. Their leaders make sure student success is a campus- wide priority. n/a

135 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Improving student success isn’t all—or even mostly—about programs. It’s about institutional culture that values success and that accepts responsibility. n/a

136 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Successful leaders honor and tap into institutional culture to privilege student success

137 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST The Education Trust, Access to Success database.

138 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST How did President Steve Weber do it? He didn’t. The campus community did. But HE made it about excellence. And HE approached the faculty as problem-solvers. The Education Trust, interview with President Weber.

139 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST In fact, successful leaders consistently treat faculty as problem solvers, not as problems to be solved.

140 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 2. They look at their data…and act. Use of data to spot problems and frame action is pervasive. n/a

141 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Successful institutions don’t just aim at the final goal— graduation—they concentrate on each step along the way, especially the early ones. n/a

142 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Elizabeth City State  Attendance mandatory. Faculty members monitor; call when absent.  Faculty advisors track absences, mid-term grades. Expected to meet with students in trouble.  Deans, Provost monitor the data—and ACT when involves one faculty member.  Everybody on campus assumes responsibility for acting on warning signs. 142 ???

143 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST But the ACT part is really important. Just having data doesn’t accomplish anything. Completion is about creating accountability for acting on those data.

144 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Supported by Institutional Research Chief Academic Officer convenes the group and participates Core Services: admissions, registration, financial aid, career services, housing, health center, and withdrawal services Academic Programs: undergraduate studies, honors program, undergraduate research, library services, and fellowships Support Programs: orientation, advising and coaching, tutoring and study skills courses, and special programs for underserved populations Student Representation: Student government representative. It is important to have this group because it helps student buy-in and can bring in additional funds for programs Cross-Campus Success Team: A group of approximately 20 professionals from these areas convenes weekly to talk about data and the students within the data. The group makes detailed action plans with specific tasks, responsible parties, and concrete deadlines Florida State University’s Cross-Campus Success Team

145 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Understand student pathways FSU developed a series of 93 action steps tied to every month of the academic calendar. 145

146 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 146 MonthTimeframeActionResponsibility JanuaryBy end of January Emails to students with 75 attempted hours who have not been accepted into a major Individual Responsible JanuaryOngoingUpdate department Degree Audit reportsIndividual Responsible JanuaryOngoingIndividual contact with students who have been placed on probation Academic Section JanuaryOngoingIndividual contact with students who have been placed on warning Academic Section February1 st weekOffer Workshop: Students Taking Exploratory Paths to Success Advising First February1 st week in the month Email to all F coded students w/100+ hours inquiring about graduation plans; email to all H coded students w/100+ hours inquiring about finishing/graduation plans Individual Responsible February6 th week of term New transfer—How are you doing— deadlines Individual Responsible FSU’s Retention “Action Steps” Source: Florida State University

147 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Connect with campus change agents FSU formed a cross-campus retention team that met weekly “to go over, not the data, but the students within the data.” Larry Abele, former Provost at Florida State University 147

148 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 3. They create clear pathways to success. n/a

149 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 149 FLORIDA STATE ACADEMIC MAP

150 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 4. They take on Introductory and Developmental Classes n/a

151 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Drop-Failure-Withdrawal Rates Mathematics: 2000 Georgia State U45% Louisiana State U36% Rio CC 41% U of Alabama60% U of Missouri-SL50% UNC-Greensboro77% UNC-Chapel Hill19% Wayne State U61% 151 National Center for Academic Transformation.

152 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Drop-Failure-Withdrawal Rates Other Disciplines: 2000 Calhoun CCStatistics35% Chattanooga StatePsychology37% Drexel UComputing51% IUPUI Sociology39% SW MN State UBiology37% Tallahassee CCEnglish Comp46% U of IowaChemistry25% U of New Mexico Psychology39% U of S MainePsychology28% UNC-GreensboroStatistics70% 152 National Center for Academic Transformation.

153 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Of course, some of this may be about preparation. But clearly not all… Course Redesign n/a

154 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Doctoral/Research Universities Similar Students, Different Results Median SATSize% Pell% URM Overall Grad Rate URM Grad Rate Ohio University 1,06516,46528.5%5.3%70.9%58.7% University of Alabama 1,06516,40524.1%13.7%62.9%58.6% University of Tennessee 1,12519,25522.8%10.7%57.2%54.5% Ball State 1,04016,51322.8%8.5%54.2%43.7% Northern Illinois 1,03017,22828.5%19.6%53.3%38.7% 154 College Results Online, 2009.

155 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST College Algebra Course Redesign: UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA SUCCESS RATES Fall 1998 Fall 1999 Fall 2000 Fall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 47.1% 40.6% 50.2% 60.5% 63.0% 78.9% 76.2% 155 ???

156 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Also, totally eliminated black/white gap in course outcomes. Same students. Same preparation. Different results. ???

157 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST And didn’t just close gaps in course outcomes. In 2001, black freshmen at Alabama graduated at a rate 9 points below white freshmen. By the class of 2006, black students were graduating at a rate 2 points HIGHER than white students. ???

158 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Course redesign in Tennessee With more than 40% of freshmen at four-year schools and nearly 80% of freshmen at two- year colleges in remediation, the Tennessee Board of Regents were early adopters of the NCAT (National Center for Academic Transformation) course redesign model Short, Paula and Treva Berryman (2012). ‘A System Approach to Learning Support Redesign in Tennessee.’ Presentation at the U.S. Education Delivery Institute network meeting, January 2012.

159 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST SMART Math at Jackson State Community College  Redesigned Basic Mathematics, Elementary Algebra, and Intermediate Algebra  Used a mastery approach that allowed for progression at individual rates  Individual on-demand assistance and feedback  Technology-integrated instruction with custom textbooks Short, Paula and Treva Berryman (2012). ‘A System Approach to Learning Support Redesign in Tennessee.’ Presentation at the U.S. Education Delivery Institute network meeting, January 2012.

160 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST SMART Math at Jackson State Community College Students eligible to enroll in college-level courses next term Students receiving passing grade Short, Paula and Treva Berryman (2012). ‘A System Approach to Learning Support Redesign in Tennessee.’ Presentation at the U.S. Education Delivery Institute network meeting, January 2012.

161 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Math redesign at Cleveland State Community College Before course redesign Section size = 24 55 sections (Fall/Spring) – 45 by FT faculty – 10 by adjuncts Faculty load = 10 sections Faculty cost = $256,275 Adjunct cost = $14,400 Total cost = $270,625 After course redesign Section size = 18 77 sections (Fall/Spring) – 77 by FT faculty – 0 by adjuncts Faculty load = 20 sections Faculty cost = $219,258 Adjunct cost = $0 Total cost = $219,258 Short, Paula and Treva Berryman (2012). ‘A System Approach to Learning Support Redesign in Tennessee.’ Presentation at the U.S. Education Delivery Institute network meeting, January 2012. Savings = $51,418 or 19%

162 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Math redesign at Cleveland State Community College Engle, Jennifer, Joseph Yeado, Rima Brusi and Jose Cruz (2012). Replenishing Opportunity in America: The 2012 Midterm Report of Public Higher Education Systems in the Access to Success Network. Washington, DC: Education Trust, 2012.

163 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 5. They don’t hesitate to demand, require. n/a

164 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST A lot of institutions know what works. And more and more of them are advising students to do those things. But it turns out that “students don’t do optional.”

165 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST San Diego State University and University of Houston  Similar Institutions  Similar enrollment percentages of Latinos  Similar SAT 165

166 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Different Results Over Time 2002 Latino Graduation Rate 2006 Latino Graduation Rate University of Houston 34.8%41.1% San Diego State 31.4%54% 166

167 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST What do the folks at SDSU think made the difference? 1. Making services, supports more coherent. 2. Making what was optional, mandatory.

168 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST 6. They bring back the ones they lose.

169 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST University of New Mexico Median SAT: 1010 % Pell: 31.4% White: 49.8% African American: 2.8% Latino: 33.6% American Indian: 6.6% Overall 6 year grad rate: 41.6% 169

170 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST The Graduation Project  Founder: David Stuart, Assoc Provost  Insight: A lot of the students who leave without a degree leave pretty close—and in good standing.  Core idea of project: Track them down and invite them back.  Criteria: 2.0 gpa or better, at least 98 credits  Universe: 3000 170

171 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Used credit company to track them down Offer: – shortened (and free) application for re-admission, – degree summary showing exactly which courses short, – priority enrollment in those courses, and – help with problems along the way. – Result: Of those 3000, 1800 now have degrees and 59 have graduate degrees. 171

172 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST For Community College Version, See “Project Win-Win” at IHEP.

173 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST In other words, what institutions do to help their students succeed matters. A lot.

174 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST © 2011 The Education Trust It’s really not about boldness of reform. It’s about intentionality and quality of execution.

175 © 2012 THE EDUCATION TRUST Washington, D.C. Metro Detroit, MI 202/293-1217 734/619-8009 Download this presentation on our website www.edtrust.org Oakland, CA 510/465-6444


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