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Vermont’s Electricity Future: Vermonters’ Perspectives Dr. Jonathan Raab, Raab Associates and MIT Restructuring Roundtable June 6, 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "Vermont’s Electricity Future: Vermonters’ Perspectives Dr. Jonathan Raab, Raab Associates and MIT Restructuring Roundtable June 6, 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 Vermont’s Electricity Future: Vermonters’ Perspectives Dr. Jonathan Raab, Raab Associates and MIT Restructuring Roundtable June 6, 2008

2 Why Should Vermont Consider the Future Now?

3 What was the VT Electricity Futures Process? Advisory and Resource panels of diverse interests helped prepare background documents & polling questions Five regional workshops across the state hosted to gather public input in October 2007 from over 650 Vermonters A deliberative polling event of 140+ randomly selected Vermonters in November 2007 On-line effort to disseminate information and allow for additional input

4 The Projects’ Advisors Steve Blair, IBM Steve Costello, Central Vermont Power Robert Griffin, Green Mountain Power David Lamont, Dept. Public Service James Matteau, Windham Regional Commission James Moore, VT Public Interest Research Group Patricia Richards, VT Public Power Supply Authority Rich Sedano, Regulatory Assistance Project

5 The Project’s Resource Panel Patrick Haller, VT Energy Efficiency, Inc. John Irving, Burlington Electric (biomass) Kerrick Johnson, VELCO (transmission) David McElwee, Entergy (nuclear) Andrew Perchlik, Renewable Energy VT Sylvie Racine, Hydro- Quèbec Eileen Simolardes, Vermont Gas John Zimmerman, VT Environmental Research Assoc. (wind)

6 Comparing Relative Costs by Source

7 Comparing Environmental Impacts

8 Regional Workshop Agenda 5:00Registration and light dinner 6:00Welcome (Commissioner David O’Brien, VT DPS), Overview (Jonathan Raab, Raab Associates), and Demographic Polling (Patrick Field, CBI) 6:20Presentation: Vermont’s Current Electricity System, Upcoming Challenges, and Future Options (Dave Lamont, VT Department of Public Service) 6:40 Facilitated Discussions: Most Significant Challenges and Promising Options for Vermont, and Additional Questions for Panel 7:35Break 7:50Panel Responds to Questions 8:45 Polling on Most Significant Challenges and Best Options for Vermont (Patrick Field, Moderator) 9:30Open Mike for Participants to Make Brief Additional Comments 10:00 Adjourn (when comments done)

9 Deliberative Polling Process Draw random sample Interview (questionnaire) and invite to event Two-day event, alternating between small group discussions (led by trained moderators) and plenary Q & A’s with policy experts and policy makers Re-administer same questionnaire

10 REGIONAL WORKSHOPS Which resource options do you think should be the highest or lowest priorities to meet Vermont’s future electricity needs considering all factors (cost, environmental attributes, reliability, etc.)? mean n = 507 ResourceHigh %Low %DifferenceRank Energy Efficiency25%1%24%1 Wind22%2%20%2 Hydro15%0%15%3 Solar16%2%14%4 Wood8%2%6%5 Methane from farms or landfill7%2%5%6 Natural gas1%8%-6%7 Nuclear6%24%-19%8 Oil0%27%-27%9 Coal1%32%-32%10

11 Deliberative Polling Results “Recommended” Allocations SourcePrePostp Hydro Wind Solar Wood Nuclear Methane Natural gas Oil Coal

12 How Important is Each of the Following Goals in Meeting Vermont's Future Energy Needs? Regional WorkshopsRank Deliberative PollingRank Minimizing Air Pollution Reducing GHG Emissions Electricity from Resources that Will Never Be Used Up Reducing Dependence on Overseas Energy Reducing Radioactive Wastes Reliable Supply of Electricity = critically important 0 = not at all importa nt

13 How Important is Each of the Following Goals in Meeting Vermont's Future Energy Needs (continued)? Regional WorkshopsRank Deliberative PollingRank Creating Jobs in Vermont Using Power Produced in Vermont Stable Electricity Rates Low Electricity Rates Avoiding Facilities that Detract from Scenic Beauty = not at all important 10 = critically important

14 n = 510 Vermont should meet as much of its electricity needs as possible by increasing how efficiently consumers use electricity Vermont should meet its electricity needs entirely by generating or buying more electricity

15 Response Comparisons Over the Next 10 Years, Would You Like to See Vermont Increase (1) -- Decrease (3) Regional Workshops Deliberative Polling Percentage of Electricity from Renewables Funding for Energy Efficiency Programs 1.2

16 Response Comparisons How Much Extra Are You Willing to Pay Per Month for Electricity that is: Regional Workshops Deliberative Polling Entirely from Renewables$29 Entirely from Non-Polluting Resources Producing no GHG or Nuclear Waste $29 Entirely from Smaller Decentralized Plants$24$19 Entirely from In-State Resources$20$18

17 Regional Workshops Deliberative Polling A Wind Farm Visible from Where you Live = strongly support 5 = strongly oppose Response Comparisons

18 Regional Workshops Deliberative Polling Continue to Buy Electricity from Hydro Quebec Continue to Buy Electricity from Vermont Yankee (Nuclear) Require Minimum Percentage from Renewable Sources1.6 Higher/Lower Costs Should Mean Higher/Lower Rates Response Comparisons 1 = strongly agree 5 = strongly disagree

19 Deliberative Polling Figure 12: Continue to Buy from VT Yankee?

20 Vermont should continue to purchase electricity from the Vermont Yankee nuclear- power plant. n = 546

21 Vermont Yankee provides base load power, meaning power is usually available 24/7. If you learned that discontinuing power from V.Y. would require another base load source of power, and that only natural gas, coal, out-of-state nuclear power, or oil were available to replace this power, would you:* n = 386 * This question was added after the St. Johnsbury workshop by the VT DPS

22 For Reflection When it comes to energy preferences and priorities, do the citizens of the rest of New England think any differently than Vermonters?


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