Presentation on theme: "Software Tools Supporting Village Power System Design Jean Ku APEC Village Power Workshop November 9, 2004."— Presentation transcript:
Software Tools Supporting Village Power System Design Jean Ku APEC Village Power Workshop November 9, 2004
Why do we need new models? Traditional Rural Electrification –Grid extensions, micro-hydro or diesels New and Renewable Alternatives –Small-scale individual DC systems Solar Lanterns, Solar or Wind Home Systems –Hybrid Power AC Systems Wind, PV, Biomass, Gensets, Batteries Mini-grids, Micro-enterprise Zones, Battery Recharging Stations
The Role of Models Objective and subjective criteria –Computers analyze objective criteria –People analyze subjective criteria Offers simplicity and transparency It’s easier to weigh the quality of service issues when you have comparable cost estimates for each alternative
The Modeling Process What is the most economical way to meet a community’s power needs? Data Inputs Local energy resources Community loads Basic component costs General maintenance costs Modeling Tools Power System Design HOMER, Hybrid2 Results Basic system design Installation and O&M costs Base line cost of alternatives Yearly power production Fuel consumption Modeling Tools Distribution system configuration (on- vs. off-grid) ViPOR
NREL’s Suite of Models ViPOR: An optimization model that determines the best mix of centralized and isolated power generation for a particular village. HOMER: An optimization model that determines the least-cost system configuration. Hybrid2: A simulation model to determine the cost and performance of a wide variety of power systems given the load and available resources.
Village Power Optimization Model for Renewables Optimize the mix of centralized and isolated generation Select between grid extension and stand-alone systems for centralized power Select the optimal placement of the centralized power system(s) Determine the optimal placement of transformers Design the optimal MV and LV distribution grid An optimization model to design village electrification systems, ViPOR will: ViPOR’s optimization procedure considers costs and revenues.
ViPOR: Inputs Location & energy requirements for expected loads Potential locations of centralized power system(s) Wire and transformer costs Power generation costs for isolated and centralized power systems (can be calculated by HOMER) Expected revenues from each load (on-grid and off- grid) Terrain description (spatial map) Maximum low voltage line length
ViPOR: Sample village Water is shown in blue, forest green, grass white, and trail gray. Green dots are houses, brown are stores, orange is church. Yellow triangles are high-wind sites, orange is low-wind site.
ViPOR: Solution for sample village ViPOR has chosen a high-wind site to power the centralized system Houses not on the grid are to be given PV home systems Red lines are MV wires, blue are LV wires Red dots are transformers
ViPOR: Numeric Output
ViPOR: Future enhancements Explicit calculation of voltage drops Calculation of power losses in distribution system Multiple transformer sizes Multiple wire sizes Tighter integration with GIS and HOMER
What is HOMER? A tool for comparing and evaluating micropower technology options for a wide range of applications –Village power systems –Stand-alone applications –Grid-connected systems –Conventional technologies –New technologies
What does HOMER do? HOMER finds the combination of components that can serve a load at the lowest life-cycle cost Shows how this result can vary given different assumptions
Technologies HOMER Can Model Single technology systems and multiple- technology (hybrid) systems Compare multiple combinations of different technologies
Generators Fossil fuels Biofuels Cofired Cogeneration Up to three generators
Grid Extension Compare to stand-alone system Breakeven grid extension distance
Grid-connected Systems Rate schedule Net metering Demand charges
Renewable Technologies Solar PV Wind Biomass and biofuels Hydro
Emerging Technologies Fuel cells Microturbines Small modular biomass
Questions HOMER can Answer –Should I buy a wind turbine, PV array, or both? –Will my design meet growing demand? –How big should my battery bank be? –What if the fuel price changes? –How should I operate my system? –And many others…
Inputs Component cost and performance data Resource availability Loads
Simulation - Optimization - Sensitivity Analysis Simulation –Estimate the cost and determine the feasibility of a system design over the 8760 hours in a year Optimization –Simulate each system configuration and display list of systems sorted by net present cost (NPC) Sensitivity Analysis –Perform an optimization for each sensitivity variable [Energy Balance] Simulation Optimization Sensitivity Analysis
Important information is very uncertain –Loads Even if you have data loads will change with system –Resources Data for a different place, natural variability –Costs Fuel prices, O&M costs Policy and market analyses requires input ranges not point estimates
Simulation Results Cost and performance of a particular system configuration
Optimization Results Ranked list of system configurations
Sensitivity Results Graphs and tables
The Hybrid2 Simulation Software A tool designed to accurately predict the long term performance of a wide variety of power systems made up of conventional fuel generators, wind generators, photovoltaics and energy storage through batteries
Hybrid2 Data Requirements Loads –Primary time series or daily load profile, including deferrable and optional loads Site/Resource parameters –Wind speed and incident solar time series –Ambient temperature time series or nominal value –Elevation, site position and wind turbulence parameters Power System –Configuration and components –Component performance parameters (Library) –Dispatch Strategy (Library)
Hybrid2 Analysis Procedures Power System Configuration and components Component performance parameters (Library) Dispatch Strategy (Library) Site/Resource parameters Wind and solar time series Ambient temperature data Elevation, site position and wind turbulence parameters Loads Primary time series or daily load profile Performance Results System design Detailed Modeling Economic Results Capital cost O&M cost
Hybrid2 Software Features Probabilistic/time series model: Accounts for the fluctuations of the wind and load during each time step Very diverse system architecture –AC, DC and combined systems can be modeled –System can include multiple wind turbines, multiple diesels, batteries, PV and 4 different types of power converters Detailed economic analysis On line library of manufactures equipment Detailed dispatching options: 17 different control parameters Hybrid systems glossary of commonly used terms Energy audit/estimation tool Resource data gap filler
Hybrid2 Power System Design The power system is designed to meet the required loads using the resources available. This requires a fair amount of hybrid system and design experience.
Hybrid2 Results Interface Simulation results displayed in a graphical format as well as a summary file which includes power flows from each component, loads, and system losses.
HOMER and Hybrid2 Design philosophy: Simplicity vs. flexibility Use: Optimization vs. performance predictions System configuration: –HOMER output, Hybrid2 input Main differences Hybrid2HOMER - Intra-hour variability- Easy initial use -Bus voltages- Dispatch optimization -Dispatch flexibility- All DG technologies - Engineering tool- Options analysis
These are only models! ViPOR, HOMER, and Hybrid2 do not provide "the right answer" to questions. It does help you consider important factors, and evaluate and compare options.
Model Availability ViPOR: A vailable from HOMER: Available from Inquiries, Hybrid2: Send to Provided with software, manuals and user support. These models were developed with funding from the US Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory