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Public Policy Outlook for K-12 Instructional Materials Jay Diskey Executive Director AAP School Division November.

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Presentation on theme: "Public Policy Outlook for K-12 Instructional Materials Jay Diskey Executive Director AAP School Division November."— Presentation transcript:

1 Public Policy Outlook for K-12 Instructional Materials Jay Diskey Executive Director AAP School Division November 2009

2 Association of American Publishers (AAP)2 2009: The Good, Bad & Ugly Recession & Recovery? State policy impacts Stimulus Spending Obama Administration

3 Association of American Publishers (AAP)3 2010: The Year Ahead State Policy Outlook National/Federal Outlook Digital transitions

4 Association of American Publishers (AAP)4 K-12 by the Numbers U.S. K-12 school enrollment: 55 million Adoption states = 20 (5,400 school districts) Non-adoption states = 30 (10,000 districts) Total K-12 expenditures = $520 billion annually K-12 instructional materials market: $7B to $8B K-12 “Core” IM market = $4 billion

5 Association of American Publishers (AAP)5 K-12 Expenditures Source: Census Bureau, NCES, Stifel Nicolaus

6 Association of American Publishers (AAP)6 K-12 Net Sales Growth

7 Association of American Publishers (AAP) K-12 Net Sales YTD (thru August) Basal Adoption Net Sales: -35.2% Basal Non-Adoption Net Sales: -15.6% Total Basal:-26.1% Total Supplemental Net Sales: 2.2% Total Basal & Supplemental Net Sales: -21.4% YTD

8 Association of American Publishers (AAP) K-12 IM Market in Review The worst U.S. economy in 70 years led to: Postponement of California’s K-8 reading adoption & second-year purchase of math. Also, disruption of the state’s adoption process. Incomplete implementation of Florida’s language arts/literature adoption. Adoption postponements in Kentucky, Oregon, North Carolina, New Mexico. Significant funding cut in Illinois. Consideration of “open source” (OER) initiatives in several key states.

9 Association of American Publishers (AAP)9 California Meltdown Reading adoption not fully implemented. Two-year purchase requirement eliminated. IM funding is “flexible” as long as Williams sufficiency requirements are met. IM adoption schedule is frozen through year. Curriculum Commission unfunded. Governor new “digital initiative” (i.e. OER) further clouds the outlook on California. California is, in effect, an “open territory” with limited funding.

10 Association of American Publishers (AAP)10 A Look at adoption calendar looks better. Large adoptions in Texas and Florida are on track. Uncertainty over state revenue. Challenges at the Federal/National levels.

11 Association of American Publishers (AAP)11 State Adoptions 2010 (scheduled purchases) STATESUBJECTS Alabama:K-12 Math, Health, PE, Technology, Career/Technical Arkansas:K-12 Fine Arts, Special Education, Agriculture, Family and Consumer Education 9-12 Career and Technology Education California:Williams Settlement – Materials adopted before July 1, 2008 Florida:K-12 Math Georgia:K-12 Foreign Language, ESOL, 9-12 English Language Arts Idaho:Humanities: Interdisciplinary, World Languages, Dance, Music, Drama/Theater, Art, PE, Health, Drivers Education, Computer Applications, Limited English Proficiency Indiana:1-12 Math Kentucky:P-12 Math Louisiana:Agriscience, Business Education, Marketing, Family & Consumer Science, Health Occupations, Technology Education, Trade & Industrial Mississippi:High School Redesign Courses Nevada:K-12 Math, Secondary Language Arts, Secondary Health New Mexico: K-8 Language Arts/Reading, CORE Reading Intervention, Modern, Classical and Native Languages

12 Association of American Publishers (AAP)12 State Adoptions 2010 (scheduled purchases) STATESUBJECT North Carolina:6-8 Math, Foreign Languages, Sign Language, Spanish for Native Speakers, Agriculture Education, Exploring Biotechnology, K-8 ESL Oklahoma:K-12 + AP Math Oregon:9-12 Science, Math South Carolina:K-5 Language Arts, 9-12 Math, Science, Social Studies,PE, Graphic Communication, Information Technology, Marketing Management, Business Management and Administration, AP Computer Science Tennessee:English Language Arts, ESL, Communication, Foreign Languages Texas:K-1 ELA/SLA and Reading, 2-5 Reading, 6-8 Reading (elective), 6-12 Literature, 6 Span.Literature, ESOL I and II, 9-12 English Language Proficiency Standards, Teachers Editions AP English Language, English Literature, IB Language Studies, Standard and Higher Level Utah:K-6 Language Arts, Math plus Agriculture and C&T in the Spring Virginia:History and Social Sciences West Virginia:K-12 Math, Vocational Agriculture, Family & Consumer Science

13 Association of American Publishers (AAP)13 State Adoptions 2011 (scheduled purchases) STATESUBJECTS AlabamaK-12 Social Studies ArkansasK-12 English Language Arts CaliforniaWilliams Settlement – Materials adopted before July 1, 2008 FloridaK-12 Science GeorgiaK-12 Social Studies, Fine Arts, Health & PE IdahoSocial Studies, Economics, Character Education, Psychology, Sociology, Computer Applications, Limited English Proficiency Indiana1-12 Science, Health KentuckyP-12 Practical Living and Vocation Studies LouisianaK-12 Science, Computer Education, CTE Journey to Careers MississippiLiterature, Reading NevadaElementary Language Arts, Secondary Language Arts and Health New MexicoSocial Studies, Library/Reference, NM and Native American Art and Culture North CarolinaNO ADOPTION/EVALUATION PROCESS

14 Association of American Publishers (AAP)14 State Adoptions 2011 (scheduled purchases) STATESUBJECTS OklahomaK-12 + AP: Language Arts OregonK-12 Second Languages South CarolinaK-5 Health and Safety, 9-12 Math, Social Studies, K-12 Self-Contained Educable Mentally Disabled, Business Management and Administration, Information Technology, Human Services, Health Science, Industrial Systems and Technology TennesseeMath, Computer Science TexasPreK Systems, 2-8 ELA, 2-6 SLA, 6-8 Speech, English I-IV, K-8 ESL, 1-2 Spell (consumable), 3-6 Spell (nonconsumable), 1-3 Handwriting, 6-8 Speech UtahK-6 Language Arts, Math plus Agriculture and C&T in the Spring VirginiaMath West VirginiaK-12 Social Studies

15 Association of American Publishers (AAP)15 What’s Ahead for State Budgets? State tax collections for the 2Q ‘09 showed a record drop of –16.6%. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau) 48 states face budget shortfalls. (Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities) State budget gaps total 24% as a share of total state budgets. (Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities)

16 Association of American Publishers (AAP)16

17 Association of American Publishers (AAP)17

18 Association of American Publishers (AAP)18 Use of Federal Stimulus Funds in the K-12 Classroom 52% Save teaching positions. 28% Professional development. 23% Classroom technology. 17% Classroom equipment. 12% School repairs. 10% Software/machines. 10% Textbooks. (Source: AASA)

19 Association of American Publishers (AAP)19 Additional Challenges for 2010 New administration in Washington. OER – “open educational resources.” Transition to digital materials. Piracy.

20 Association of American Publishers (AAP)20 Federal/National Challenges Common national standards. No Child Left Behind reauthorization. Race to the Top innovation fund. Obama Administration themes. Influence of national foundations.

21 Association of American Publishers (AAP)21 OER Defined Open educational resources (OER) are instructional materials freely available for use, remixing and distribution. The term “OER" was first adopted at UNESCO’s 2002 Forum on the Impact of Open Courseware for Higher Education in Developing Countries (funded by the Hewlett Foundation).

22 Association of American Publishers (AAP)22 OER Providers & Proponents

23 Association of American Publishers (AAP)23 OER Claims & Characteristics Free! Usually digital/electronic. Belief that digital should be “free.” Open license allows for collaboration and remixing. Easy to update. Foundation funding and now government funding. Adoption of OER could save states and districts money (maybe, but at what cost?).

24 Association of American Publishers (AAP)24 OER Drawbacks Are the OER materials developed by trusted, known, expert sources? Are the materials accurate? Are the materials aligned with state standards? Are they based on current research? Can OER provide a comprehensive curriculum with content, scope & sequence? Are the materials really “open” or are the collaborations a form of collective piracy? Do schools have the technology infrastructure to go fully digital? What about the MSST?

25 Association of American Publishers (AAP)25 Current OER Initiatives Schwarzenegger's “digital” initiative. Texas (H.B. 2488) “Hochberg Bill.” Virginia “flexbook” initiative. Washington state/Gates Foundation initiative. Federal student loan bill (Sec. 505).

26 Association of American Publishers (AAP)26 OER & Digital Implications for Manufacturers Further erosion of traditional K-12 print market. Implications for state funding and adoptions. MSST issues. But, print-on-demand opportunities will likely increase.

27 Association of American Publishers (AAP)27 Wrap Up

28 Association of American Publishers (AAP)28 Contact Jay Diskey Executive Director AAP School Division


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