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The Greater Antelope Valley Lancaster Palmdale California City Ridgecrest Tehachapi Mojave Rosamond Los Angeles Co. East Kern Co.

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Presentation on theme: "The Greater Antelope Valley Lancaster Palmdale California City Ridgecrest Tehachapi Mojave Rosamond Los Angeles Co. East Kern Co."— Presentation transcript:

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4 The Greater Antelope Valley Lancaster Palmdale California City Ridgecrest Tehachapi Mojave Rosamond Los Angeles Co. East Kern Co.

5 Mission Statement Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance (GAVEA) Antelope Valley Economic Research & Education Foundation (AVEREF) mission is to grow, retain, and attract businesses in the Antelope Valley

6 Antelope Valley By Zip Code

7 USA Equals 1/5 of World Economy

8 USA and China Comparison United States Population 311 Million China’s Population 1.5 Billion United States 14.7 T GDP China 5.7 T GDP

9 USA and China Comparison United States Population 311 Million China’s Population 1.5 Billion United States 14.7 T GDP China 5.7 T GDP China’s Gross Domestic Product need to grow $75 Trillion

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20 National Job Loss Between 7-8 Million Normal Economy Create 200K jobs/mo LA CountyLost 1.5M Jobs LA CountyGained 100,000 Source: LAEDC

21 Corporations Holding Large Sums of Cash… 2004/2005First came to GAVEA’s attention Research:Follow the Smart Money Microsoft $250B Hewlett $100B ResultsJobs not being created 2011Corporation still holding cash EstimateEstimated to be: $2T Why???

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24 Long-Term Population Projections May Change 2010201520202030 Lancaster145075181493202407242523 Palmdale151343220112257546329322 Unincorp.128673161040223243 Cal CityRegion238233250939641 RidgecrestRegion366473944241737 RosamondRegion293993180540245 TehachapiRegion386784769157632 Total486141658835772440974343 GAVEA486141536505593087721932 Source: DOF, SCAG and Kern COG

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26 Cost of Doing Business 20062010 Lancaster Moderate CostLow Cost Palmdale Moderate CostAverage Cost Indio High CostAverage Cost Tulare High Cost Riverside High Cost San Bernardino Very High Cost Los Angeles Very High Cost Chandler, AZ Very High Cost Phoenix, AZ Very High Cost Source: Kosmont Cost of Doing Business

27 Property Tax Comparison 20062010 Lancaster1.1% Palmdale1.2%1.3% San Bernardino1.1%1.3% Portland, OR2.1% Tucson, AZ2.3% Syracuse, NY3.8%2.5% Chandler, AZ2.9%2.6% Bullhead City, AZ1.2%2.7% Arlington, TX3.0% Source: Kosmont Cost of Doing Business

28 Crime Index by National Average N. Las Vegas Lancaster Palmdale Glendale, AZ Reno Source: FBI, GAVEA Crime Index N. Las Vegas Lancaster Palmdale Glendale, AZ Reno

29 POPULATION CHANGES = CHANGE IN FUTURE WORKFORCE Hispanic (pop)20002010 % of ChangeAnnual Lancaster28,64442,95549.96%5% Palmdale43,99167,00152.31%5% White (pop)20002010 Lancaster74,57383,00211.30%1.1% Palmdale63,90567,0014.84%0.5% Source: Claritas, GAVEA

30 The ethnic makeup of the population is changing quickly. About 58% of elementary students are Hispanic/Latino, compared to 33% of the current total population.

31 More than 20,000 students throughout AV are designated as English Language Learners. 17,000 Student: enrolled in the advanced learning

32 Hispanic/Latino students less likely to take college preparatory classes. 88% of Hispanic Parents agree that a college education is important as compared to 74%USA

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35 AV Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2001 to 2010 2 nd Qtr. Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA

36 AV Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2008 to 2010 2 nd Qtr. Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA

37 Antelope Valley Average Annual Employment Prelim #Number of Jobs Gained % of jobs Gained 2008/ 20082010 Total AV Employment - LA County76,89972,340-4,559-5.93% Total AV Employment Kern County23,57221,945-1,627-6.90% Total Employment - AV 100,471 94,285 -6,186-6.16% Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA

38 Antelope Valley Annual Employment 2009 to 2010 Comparison Prelim #Number of Jobs Gained % of jobs Gained 2009/ 20092010 Total AV Employment - LA County73,20172,340-861-1.18% Total AV Employment Kern County22,59721,945-652-2.89% Total Employment - AV 95,798 94,285 -1533-1.58% Source: EDD, GAVEA

39 Antelope Valley Average Annual Employment Prelim #Number of Jobs Gained % of jobs Gained 2007/ 20072010 Total AV Employment - LA County73,35872,340-1,018-1.39% Total AV Employment Kern County23,08621,945-1,141-4.94% Total Employment - AV96,444 94,285-2159-2.23% Source: EDD, GAVEA

40 Unemployment Rate

41 Workforce changes -? 78,000,000 48,000,000 Source: DOL

42 AV (LA) Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2008 to 2010 2 nd Qtr. Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA

43 AV (Kern) Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2008 to 2010 2 nd Qtr. Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA

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45 Source: FDIC, SFVRC

46 GAVEA R E E N

47 Renewable Energy 8,000 MW in permitting and planning process Enough capacity to generate power for 1.6 – 2.4M housing units. There are 1,720,000 single detached housing units in LA County. www.windsolarcalifornia.com

48 71,000 workers commute to LA from Antelope Valley. The average daily one-way commute is 89 minutes for Palmdale and 67 minutes for Lancaster and Rosamond

49 Electric Cars

50 1994-1995 Average Miles per Vehicle approximate number of register vehicles in 2006 USA approximate number of miles traveled in 2006 approximate distance to the sun and back number of trips to the sun and back 14,300251,000,0003,589,300,000,000186,000,00019,297 California Mileage Time period Number of miles Gallon of gasAmount spent Number of 9000 tanker trucks Number of miles of trucks end to end (5280 feet per mile) Number of times from LA to New York (2780.82 Miles) July 0815,500,000,000620,000,000$2,452,100,00068,888.88913.290.33 8/07 - 7/08178,560,000,0007,142,400,000$20,248,704,000793,600.0010521.213 3/4 8/06 - 7/07182,900,000,0007,316,000,000$17,170,652,000812,888.8810776.943 9/10 2.4% less year over year. 17.9% more year over year

51 Film, Farming Aerospace

52 Industrial, Hotels

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55 Antelope Valley Retail Sales Source: Cities of Lancaster, Palmdale, Cal City, Tehachapi, Ridgecrest

56 Lancaster Retail Sales Comparison of the High to 2009 % of Growth/Loss Calendar YearHigh2009High/LowHigh/Low in $ Apparel $35,280,000 $31,422,000-10.94% -$3,858,000 General Merchandise $273,169,000 $267,706,000-2.00% -$5,463,000 Food Stores $74,052,000 $63,420,000-14.36% -$10,632,000 Eating & Drinking $152,959,000 $140,972,000-7.84% -$11,987,000 Furniture/Appliances Building Materials $197,160,000 $102,192,000-48.17% -$94,968,000 Auto Dealers $382,772,000 $155,943,000-59.26% -$226,829,000 Service Stations $149,101,000 $106,128,000-28.82% -$42,973,000 Other Retail $193,053,000 $99,431,000-48.50% -$93,622,000 Other Outlets $616,517,000 $324,355,000-47.39% -$292,162,000 Total -$782,494.000

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58 TOTAL RETAIL SALES (LOSS) LANCASTER ($782,494,000) PALMDALE ($541,071,400) TOTAL LOSS ($1,323,565,000) Source: City of Lancaster, Palmdale

59 Loss of Retail Sales Comparison (2009 as to Historical Year High) REPRESENTS HIGH YEAR AS TO 2009 YEAR % of SALES COMPARISON Growth Loss AS TO HISTORICAL Calendar Year2006200720082009TO 2009YEAR Lancaster $ 2,049,000,000 $ 1,291,569,000 -37% 2001 Palmdale $ 1,726,326,200 $ 1,265,627,500 -27% 2003 Ridgecrest $ 285,824,000 $ 285,120,400 0% 2006 Tehachapi $ 170,995,000 $ 139,840,000 -18% 2005 California City $ 44,600,000 $ 29,400,000 -34% 2005 Total $ 4,247,668,200 $ 3,011,556,900 -29% 2003

60 California Taxable Retail Sales

61 OCTOBER 29, 1969 WHAT HAPPENED ON OCTOBER 29, 1969 ??

62 OCTOBER 29,1969 FIRST MESSAGE SENT TO CYBERSPACE BY CLUNKY COMPUTER AT UCLA AT THE INTERNET 35 TH BIRTHDAY PARTY (2004), KLEINROCK SAID, “THE INTERNET IS ESSENTIALLY IN ITS STONE AGE.”

63 THE INTERNET – A Game Changer MASS CUSTOMIZING OF THE ENVIRONMENT. “IF YOU WALK INTO A ROOM THE ROOM WILL KNOW IT.” HE CALLED IT INVISIBLE AND NOMADIC COMPUTING. ONE DAY ALL HUMANS ON EARTH WILL BE CONNECTED. WE ARE ABOUT 3-4% THERE. CEO OF INTEL

64 THE INTERNET CEO OF BROADCAM, UCLA PROFESSOR AND PHILANTHROPIST, SAMUELI SAID, “MAYBE WE WILL GET THERE IN 50 YEARS TO MAKE THE INTERNET INDISPUTABLY UBIQUITOUS AND SECURE”

65 Dare to Compare This 982sf 3bed 2bath home in Santa Clarita built in 1962 sold on 08/26/10 for $275,000 This 3,448sf 4Bed 3bath home in West Lancaster built in 2005 sold on 08/19/10 for $235,000

66 Income VS. Housing Affordability Source: Claritas, GAVEA, Dataquick 2010 Avg. Household Income 2007 Affordability 2010 Affordability California City$65,7557091 Phoenix$67,6417087 Palmdale$72,3694883 Lancaster$65,3754782 Greater Tehachapi$72,1215979 Rosamond$64,6974376 Santa Clarita$107,5105171 Reno$65,2935365 Tucson$49,5054964 Las Vegas$72,8434364 Los Angeles$72,7852146

67 Housing – Number of Listings Source: GAVAR, GAVEA ACTIVE LISTINGS 20042005200620072008200920102011 Jan5401196185136594783345510461698 Feb5711133226937174876308011451827 Mar4561002237139624575267611911814 Apr444920256143334572200711811743 May50984628314722451116861075 Jun70587333565081455013861225 Jul93487537725190417312641309 Aug1147106540225303403211811450 Sept1381123942964864398411481595 Oct1500151344374950395311051692 Nov1548167143535172388410861792 Dec1500171041245084374010231764 Total Listings112351404340243560375163321097164657082

68 20062007200820092010 AVG. # of sales Sales65683067578488366322 % Change-53%89%53%-28% Source: GAVAR, GAVEA

69 Housing Units Sold in the AV 200220032004200520062007200820092010 Units Sold 8,0509,32710,07410,6797,6653,4755,9719,9937,602 % Change 16%8%9%-28%-55%72%67%-24% Source: First American Title

70 Average Housing Sales Price in the AV 200220032004200520062007200820092010 AVG. Sales Price $140,807$169,124$224,588$284,572$314,435$295,542$211,461$142,226141,433 % Change 20%34%26%10%-6 %-28%-33%0.6% Source: First American Title

71 Annual Notice of Default 200220032004200520062007200820092010 # of NOD1484128588013792394638110162102265791 % Change-13%-32%57%74%167%59%0.6%-43% Source: Data Quick

72 Notice of Default by Q Source: Data Quick

73 Yearly Home Foreclosure Sales 9495969798990001020304050607080910 # of F.S. 2017220429643725309618921363734573278112552742383732755924166 % Change 9%34%20%-17%-39%-28%-54%-22%-51%-60%-51% 398% 770% 207%-24%-26% From high 3725 To low 55 (-98.5%) Up to high 7327 (13,221.8%) Avg. 2,280/year Sources: Data Quick

74 HOME FORECLOSURE SALES BY Q Source: Data Quick

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76 Lancaster Single Family Building Permits YearSingle Family Permits Multi- Family Permits Total 2000279132411 2001577194771 20024370 20039722974 200417403692109 20052799782877 200616631061769 20078062808 2008253144397 200918780267 20102770 Source: Construction Industry Board

77 Palmdale Single Family Building Permits YearSingle Family Permits Multi- Family Permits Total 1999495344839 20006080 20018120 20029780 20039460 200413710 200515790 20061213911304 20078392361075 2008379158537 20092610 20101490

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79 WILD CARDS TERRORIST ATTACK POLITICAL UNREST IN MAJOR OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES GOVERNMENT FINANCES –LOCAL & NATIONAL BABY-BOOMERS LEAVING THE JOB MARKET LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE DOLLAR

80 Mel Layne President (661) 945-2741 1028 W. Ave L-12 Suite 101 Lancaster, CA 93534 www.aveconomy.org


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