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copyright R.J. Marks II EE 505 Sums of RV’s and Long-Term Averages (The Central Limit Theorem)

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copyright R.J. Marks II The Central Limit Theorem S = sum of n i.i.d. RV’s Define Notes: (1) We assume the mean & variance of X are defined & finite. No Cauchy! (2) Z is zero mean with unit variance.

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copyright R.J. Marks II The Central Limit Theorem = the CDF of a zero mean unit variance Gaussian RV. Recall… See pp. 281-283

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copyright R.J. Marks II erf table

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copyright R.J. Marks II The Central Limit Theorem (Example) Rounding off the cents in a column sum. X = rounding error ~ uniform from -$½ to $½. S= total error. ;E[X]= $ 0, var(X)= 1 / 12 $ 2. Q1: n =10. What is the probability the total error is over $10? Q2: What is n when Pr[|S| > $100] = 0.5 ?

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copyright R.J. Marks II The Central Limit Theorem (Example) Q: The sum of n i.i.d. Bernoulli RV’s with success probability p is a binomial RV. As n , does the CLT also say this sum approaches a Gaussian with mean np and variance np(1-p)? A: Yes. This is the DeMoivre-Laplace theorem. Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754)

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copyright R.J. Marks II The Central Limit Theorem Recall: for i.i.d. RV’s, if then S is Gaussian if the X k ’s are Gaussian. As n , Gaussian. S is Binomial if the X k ’s are Binomial. As n , Gaussian. S is Poisson if the X k ’s are Poisson. As n , Gaussian. S is Gamma if the X k ’s are Gamma. As n , Gaussian. S is Negative Binomial if the X k ’s are Negative Binomial. As n , Gaussian. S is Cauchy if the X k ’s are Cauchy. As n , still Cauchy.

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copyright R.J. Marks II The Central Limit Theorem Proof - some fundamentals. Lemma Proof: LaHospital For small

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copyright R.J. Marks II The Central Limit Theorem Proof - cont. Preliminaries Proof outline - we will show… Gaussian characteristic function

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copyright R.J. Marks II The Central Limit Theorem Proof - cont. Preliminaries

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copyright R.J. Marks II The Central Limit Theorem Proof - cont. Continuing… Since the X k ’s are i.i.d.

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copyright R.J. Marks II The Central Limit Theorem Proof - conclusion. Continuing… = 0

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Central Limit Theorem Example: (NOTE THAT THE ANSWER IS CORRECTED COMPARED TO NOTES5.PPT) –5 chemists independently synthesize a compound 1 time each.

Central Limit Theorem Example: (NOTE THAT THE ANSWER IS CORRECTED COMPARED TO NOTES5.PPT) –5 chemists independently synthesize a compound 1 time each.

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