Presentation on theme: "“Arab Climate Resilience Initiative”"— Presentation transcript:
1 “Arab Climate Resilience Initiative” First Regional Consultation Meeting“The Impacts Of Climate Change On ِ Water Resources ”Damascus, The Arab Republic of Syria15-16 September 2010.Dr. Naif Abu-LohomProf. Dr. Abdulla BabaqiWater & Environment Centre (WEC), Sana’a UniversityRepublic of Yemen
2 Contents Background Information Yemen’s Climate Change Profile Challenges in Water SectorScenarios of Climate Change Impact on water sectorMain National Policies, Projects, Activities Undertaken to Address CCRecommendation to Mitigate and adopt with CC ImpactsOpportunities for Interventions at Different Levels:(Technical, Policy, Institutional, Support of Local Communities, etc)
3 Background Information Yemen signed UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified it in May 1996.Ratified Kyoto Protocol in September 2004.Established CDM Committee in 2007.
5 Rainfall Variability In Yemen Yemen Climate Change ProfileTemperature TrendHistorical data (since 1970) indicate Warming become greater for summer(+0.2°C/decade) than winter (+0.15°C/decade).According to IPCC report, Yemen is expected to warm by 3-4°C by 2080s which is roughly 1.5 times the global mean responseRainfall Variability In YemenThe average total annual precipitation recorded for about 100 years show variability but without an obvious and unpredictable trendThe extreme events are increasingly becoming a source of concern(Hadramout & Almahra Floods).
6 Rainfall Variability In Sana’a City The Fig. depicts the spatial distribution of rainfall in Sana’a City measured at four stationsIt shows significant differences in total rainfall over a period Jan. – July 2007
7 Hadhramout Flood, 25th October, 2008 The flooding comes after more than a full day of rain in Yemen, which normally receives only a few inches of rain per year.A flash floods have claimed the lives of more than 140 persons and left more than 20,000 without shelter in the Hadramout and Maharah Governorates
8 to Climate Change Impacts Vulnerable Sectorsto Climate Change ImpactsINC & NAPA identified 5 main sectors vulnerable to climate changeImpacts:Water ResourcesAgricultureCoastal ZoneBiodiversityHealth and Tourism
9 Challenges In Water Sector Increased water scarcity and reduced water qualityPer capita annual water resources of only 120 m310% of regional average and 2% of global averageOver-exploitation of GW (3-8 meters/year annual drop in most of the basins)Annual Abstraction in SB exceeds 4 times the rechargeIrrigated area has expanded from 37,000 to about 1,200,000 haAgriculture use more than 90 % of Water ResourcesDecrease Water Supply in most of the main cities (Sana’a, Taiz,Amran.)Increase water conflicts.Low irrigation water use efficiency (20-40%)Institutional and implementation capacity challenges for groundwater management
10 Water status in YemenTotal renewable water: Bm3/y. Total water use: Bm3/yDeficit: Mm3/yExcessive PumpingFlood IrrigationََِQat trees
11 Impacts of Climate Change in Groundwater Three simplified CC scenarios of the impacts of CC on groundwater for the period 2025 up to 2080s were developed (WEC & HR Wallingford, 2010) . This study financed by the World Bank in the framework of NAPA programe:A “hot and dry” scenarioA “mid” scenario,A “warm and wet” ScenarioThese scenarios were developed based on the collected baseline data ( ) i.e. :Average annual TemperatureAverage annual rainfallGlobal Climate Model (GCM)
12 Broad Characterization ScenariosBroad CharacterizationExpectations:- warming (1 to 1.6 °C)An increase in rainfallAn increase in Runoff and rechargeExpectations:Considerable warming (1.6 to 3.1 °C)No significant change in rainfallWarming Degree CChange in annual rainfall %Expectations:Decrease Rainfall,Decline of runoff and rechargeTemp. may become too high (2 to 4.5 °C)
13 Prospects of GW Abstraction & Climate Change impacts for Yemen as a WholeBy 2025 GW reserves will be exhausted & abstraction will equal rechargeAfter 2025, the GL shows the extraction levels that would be consistent with current rates of recharge + the extra resource available from increased recharge under the ‘warm & wet’ scenario.The Red Line is common to all scenarios up to 2025Average GW Recharge BaselineThe RL after2025 traces:Drop in recharge & abstractionsbelow current recharge levels under Hot & Dry Scenario
14 Main National Policies Undertaken to Address the CC The Initial National Communication (INC) on CC was prepared on April, 2001The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA, Yemen) was prepared on 2008 and endorsed by Cabinet in March 2009.The Second National Communication (SNC) on CC was prepared onSome Relevant Existing national and sectoral strategies and plansPoverty Reduction Strategy, Vision 2025.National Water Sector Strategy and Investment Programme (NWSSIP)Integrated Coastal Zone Management PlansHealth and Environment StrategyEnvironmental Impact Assessment PolicyWorld Bank Country Assistance Strategy (CAS)Establishment of Inter-ministerial CC Commission/Board, 2009:(MWE, MAI, MoF, MLA, MFW, MoT, MTIT, EPA, NWRA)
15 Previous Projects Related to CC - National Level:A Study on climate change scenarios projections (2008/09)National Capacity Self Assessment for climate change, biodiversity and combating desertificationNational Probabilistic Risks AssessmentHadramout and Al Mahra Probabilistic Risks Assessment- Local Level:Municipality of Sana’a Natural Disaster Risk Evaluation and Urban PlanningSana’a Integrated Storm water Management PlanAdapting to Water Scarcity for Yemen’s Vulnerable Communities:(Case studies of Sana'a Basin , Sada’a Basin and Aden City)
16 Planned Projects Related to CC On-going ProjectsRelated to CCClimate impacts on water resource management and agriculture (W. Bank)Climate impacts on Agrobiodiversity (World Bank)Rainfed Areas Livestock ProjectAgro-biodiversity and Adaptation ProjectWater Sector Support ProgramGroundwater and Soil Conservation Project (World Bank)Sana’a Basin Water Management ProjectIntegrated Coastal Zone ManagementIrrigation Improvement ProjectPlanned Projects Related to CCPilot Project for Climate Resilience (PPCR)
17 Recommendations to Mitigate and Adopt with Climate Change Impacts Improving governance through transparency and an active civil society role,Capacity Building and awareness Programme at all levelsEmpowering rural communities so that they can participate in assessments and feed in their knowledge to provide useful climate information;Integrate climate resilience into the design of new infrastructure for irrigation and flood controlDeveloping an early warning systems which can help to anticipate and prevent disastersIntegrating climate change impacts into economic planning for the national budget.
18 The opportunities for interventions 1. Technical Opportunities : WR management and agricultureUpdating knowledge on critical basins to determine safe yields and storage capacities of aquifers and surface water resources.Upgrading the network of hydro-meteorological monitoring stations; collating relevant agricultural, social and economic datasets to enhance understanding of the systemDeveloping and use appropriate tools such as Decision Support System DSS at different levels (Catchment, Basin, County)Developing robust climate models that reduce the degree of uncertainty in national and regional climate prediction. Conducting Remote sensing and ground-truthing studies to identify the relationship between climate and change in water resources, food security and agriculture.
19 The opportunities for interventions 1. Technical Opportunities : WR management and AgricultureInterventionsSuggested measures1. More efficient groundwater irrigation and more use of groundwater for supplementary irrigationPiped conveyance and distributionPressurized irrigation (drip, bubbler)Improved irrigation managementDrought bridging through supplementary irrigation2. Investment in infrastructure and improved water use efficiency of surface irrigationImproved spate irrigationIncorporating flood preparedness into surface irrigation managementWastewater reuse3. Return to traditional agricultural and water harvesting techniquesPromoting water harvesting, fog harvestingTerrace rehabilitationPromoting improved livestock and rangeland systems4. Changing cropping patterns, growing shorter cycleVarietal research (on short cycle or drought tolerant varieties, high value low water using crops etc.)Farming systems research5. Adoption of integrated management of the water resource at all levelsDevelop capacity for planning and regulation on a partnership basisWater resource evaluation and monitoringIncentive structure to encourage efficient and sustainable useLicensing, registration, regulationPromote basin level planning and managementSupport WUAs as the lowest building block of WR managementWatershed management in key catchments
20 The opportunities for interventions 2. Policies, Institutional and Capacity Building:Establishing a CC strategy endorsed by Cabinet and in consistence with available strategiesAccelerating formation of National Committee for CC adaptation and representing all concern agenciesMainstreaming of climate change issues into all local, sub – national, national, and sectorial planning processesBuilding institutional and technical capacity in the MWE, including NWRA, the water utilities and GARWSP to better integrate climate change concerns into water strategies and policies.Ensuring close cooperation among various agencies with interests in the water sector, including MAI, MWE, NWRA, EPA, the water utilities, GARWSP, and CAMA.Revision and development of Water Resources plans according to CC impactsStaff Capacity Building and provision of a suitable environment to perform their tasks
21 The opportunities for interventions 3. Support of Local Community-:Investing in public awareness campaign of local communities about CC impacts & adaptationPromote Capacity building of lo identify priorities and adaption with CCInvolve local communities (LC, WUA) in planning and implementation process of pilot projectsImprove livelihood of local communities through implementation of certain activities based on areas prioritiesExchange experiences between communityrepresentatives in different topographical areasDocumentation of the local traditional, indigenousknowledge and use it for CC adaptation