Presentation on theme: "International Assessment of Goals for 2050 Two-round questionnaire Round 1: 26 goals rated by 82 participants from 28 countries who suggested 111 additional."— Presentation transcript:
International Assessment of Goals for 2050 Two-round questionnaire Round 1: 26 goals rated by 82 participants from 28 countries who suggested 111 additional goals. Round 2: 18 goals distilled from Round 1 suggestions were rated by 69 (thus far) from 22 countries who also suggested strategies to key goals rated in Round 1 WWICS workshop: What could the world look like in 40–50 years?
How Goals Were Rated Importance ability to improve the future for all, inspire global cooperation, and help other goals to occur Acceptability likelihood that at least one leader of government will eventually adopt the goal and commit the resources to achieve it Possibility likelihood that the goal will be achieved by the year 2050 Total of 44 Goals were rated from to 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest)
Top ten: high importance, acceptability, and possibility End water shortages and water pollution Provide clean and abundant energy End slavery Normalize international pursuit of key technologies to benefit humanity in a manner similar to the Human Genome Project Create permanent civic mechanisms for deliberation, monitoring, and evaluation of the performance of the state and its officials Catalog and preserve the world’s species diversity Eliminate all major infectious and inherited diseases Make cities more livable (e.g. eliminate traffic gridlock, crime, etc.) Provide universal on-line education for all Establish a global system to review S & T directions and impacts
Low possibility, but high importance and acceptability End Hunger Establish economic systems that work for all (e.g., ends hunger and poverty) Eliminate weapons of mass destruction World peace insured by an improved UN Nearly zero emissions/full recycling in production Provide universal health care for all End organized crime
High importance and possibility, but low political acceptability Reduce the environmental impact of producing each unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by a factor of four How to convince leaders to accept this goal?
Importance of Goals Vs. Acceptability and Possibility
Some Findings Goals rated most important, but not necessarily likely, tended to address immediate needs of food, water, energy, poverty, and peace. There was a high correlation between importance and acceptability, but less so between importance and the likelihood of achieving the goal Goals were rated higher in importance (the lowest score is 2.6) than by acceptability (lowest 2.3) or possibility (lowest 1.98) Non-US participants had far more faith in the future ability of the United Nations system to help lead the achievement of selected goals in Round 2
Lowest in all categories Round 1 Improve human intelligence 50 points in 50 years Create permanent ocean habitats Establish several habitats throughout the solar system Move much of the industrial economy into space Develop means for allowing individuals to triple their life span Round 2 Create co-existence among cyborgs, artificial life, and natural life Create a fully integrated human/brain/computer merger Effective union of science and religion acknowledged by majority Establish world government
Establish economic systems that work for all â â Create Global consensus through â â Interaction of public/private systems and UN Summit - strongest emphasis on NGOs â â Combination of normative elements today â â No consensus on free market capitalism â â Emergent system - Tech or catastrophe driven â â Focused research and educational curricula on the question
Transnational Organized Crime â $1-2 Trillion per year; 0.5-1 Trillion Profit â 2-5% Global Economy Laundered â Banks vs Internet with $1-2 trillion/day â Buys the future of crime: countries â Elections run on software â What percent of world under influence? Future marketing, Infowar, Crime
Elements of Strategy â â Global, simultaneous, focused. â â IMF Finance Ministers Meeting â â Shared money laundering data base â â Prioritize list by global volume â â Protocol to Palermo, ICC, UN SC â â Deputize Courts â â Situation Room under IMF or other
Sequence â When the largest is clear â Legal case is solid â A court is willing on no notice â Assets and access can be frozen â You know where he is â Local authorities will make the arrest â Sit Room confirms arrest capability â Sit Room confirms all else is ready
Foresight and Governance Project of the WWICS in cooperation with NASA What could the world look like in 40–50 years? Goals discussed: Access to clean water and food Provide clean and abundant energy End slavery globally Understand biological processes at the cellular; organ; organism; and ecological levels Eliminate all major infectious and inherited diseases Provide universal health care for all Eliminate weapons of mass destruction Establish a system of world justice Stabilize global systems Make world into global organism
actors needed to take a leadership role to ensure the achievement of the highest ranked goals: International organizations (U.N., WHO, etc.) Other national governments (non-U.S.) U.S. government NGOs Other state and local governments Private sector Academia Religions/charities Other
WWICS workshop (cont.) Publication of goals Discussion of their implementation at relevant levels Coalition Create a listserv for continuous discussion Comparative analysis Input of social scientists Future conference on specific goals Educational materials White papers Crisp phrasing of long-term goals Create Sim City style computer games (e.g., for water) next steps to maintain the dialogue and interest in long-term goals (ranked with the most important first)