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Intuition vs. Metrics The Big Debate Andrew Mo | Playfish China.

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Presentation on theme: "Intuition vs. Metrics The Big Debate Andrew Mo | Playfish China."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Intuition vs. Metrics The Big Debate Andrew Mo | Playfish China

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6 so what’s the debate?

7 INTUITION “I will quit before I make a game based on analytics” –Warren Spector, Disney

8 METRICS “Creating Successful Social Games: Understanding Player Behavior” –Mark Skaggs, Zyng

9 which one wins? vs

10 (drum roll)

11 both.

12 thank you … questions?

13 the (actual) plan  why do we need both?  why is it hard to do it right?  when to use which?

14 a much wider debate…

15 inspiration patterns holistic hunch tacit analysis data intentional logic explicit

16 you need both

17 “Not everything that counts can be counted and not everything that can be counted counts”

18 “Radical innovation requires both evidence and intuition : evidence to become informed, and intuition to inspire us in imagining and creating new and better possibilities.” — Jane Fulton Suri, IDEO

19 it’s evolution, baby.

20 but it’s hard!

21 single biggest reason for failure… …using the wrong one at the wrong time

22 two tales

23 tale #1: wrong number

24 once upon a time, a CEO …

25 … was all about safety

26 safety targets were being met –Initiatives underway –money spent … but clear signs of problems: –Numerous safety hazards reported at supposedly "upgraded" refineries the problem

27 BP Deepwater Horizon Explosion (April 20, 2010)

28 tale #2: trust me

29 once upon a time, a CEO …

30 … was all about money

31 a big believer in intuition courses for executives “on trusting their instincts when making difficult decisions ”

32 the problem intuition was trusted even when key data said otherwise poor decisions left the company exposed to a lot of risk

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34 when to use which?

35 choosing the right one your values matter your team matters the problem matters

36 values matter

37 designer proposed this

38 pm proposed this

39 went to the VP with this

40 data driven values …ultimately tested 44 different shades of blue

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42 team matters

43 traditional game development Producer (Creative) Producer (Creative) Game Designer (Creative) Game Designer (Creative) web development Designer (Creative) Designer (Creative) Product Manager (Data) Product Manager (Data) social game development Producer/Designer (Creative) Product Manager (Data) Product Manager (Data)

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45 balance of power is key Producer (Creative) Producer (Creative) Product Manager (Data) Product Manager (Data)

46 the problem matters

47 highly complex inputs  intuition less complex inputs  analysis

48 more complex  intuition

49 less complex  analysis

50 intuition best practices

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53 “The analysis, based on past events, certainly seems sound. But your instincts are the only way you're going to do something unsound. And unsound things become hits. Sound ones never do.” — Seth Godin

54 how to use intuition experience is important lean towards it for complex problems, not for details lean towards it for long-term planning lean towards it when creating something new back it up with data whenever possible

55 metrics best practices

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58 good things about metrics what gets measured gets done good metrics drive good behaviour good metrics help you make good decisions good for highly measurable environments with short feedback loops

59 bad things about metrics what gets measured gets done bad metrics drive bad behaviour bad metrics help you make bad decisions bad for noisy environments with long feedback loops metrics can age quickly

60 key metrics for social games engagement DAU playrate (DAU/MAU) funnel tracking virality installs / DAU # of invites sent accept % monetization % spendersARPU & ARPPU new vs. repeat spenders

61 metrics best practices align with your goals good enough (vs. perfect) keep it simple … a few good ones revise, revise, revise … things change; don’t be afraid to add, change and remove

62 closing comments

63 final words you need both! –metrics are good to optimise and to clear false assumptions –intuition can lead you out of your rut (for good and for worse) –Trust your gut and prove it with data! use the right one at the right time, but don’t hide behind either

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