1. Dr. Le Trung Tinh Dr. Le Vinh Truong Toulouse, July August 2014 1

2. Plan Southeast Asian Sea – the setting Persistent negotiations Initiating a lawsuit - a diplomatic move & a preventive weapon in international affairs Taking China to court and/or War Political impacts from initiating a lawsuit against China China’s economic reprisals Conclusions

3. 1. Southeast Asian Sea – the setting 19/01/1974: Source: http://vnexpress.net/ 3

4. 2012, 300 fishermen in Quang Ngai seized by China 2013, China changed from arresting into chasing, shooting, ramming Vietnamese fishing boats, destroying fishing instruments, equipment and boats of Vietnamese fishermen 2014, «Measures for implementing Chinese Fishery Law of Hainan Province" Vietnamese fishing boat burnt by Chinese on 20 March 2013

5. Haiyang Shiyou-981 (HY-981) Source: http://www.straight.com 5

6. Protect HY-981: protective vessels  attacked ships of Vietnamese functional forces by water cannons Source: Tuoi Tre 6

7. 2. Persistent negotiations? Source: http://www.baomoi.com 7

8. Disadvantage: - Offensive (oil rigs, airplanes, warships) - Devised plans (cutting off cables of Binh Minh 2, introducing U-shaped line, printing U-shaped line in passport…)  Negotiation: Vietnam  concession  unprofitable solution for international support Source: Huy Duong and Tuan Pham, Nautilus Institute 8

9. Advantage (?): mild mitigation of China’s encroachment (Ex: COC) >< Vietnam: trade off economic, political concessions  Negotiation: Regrettable solution 9

10. 3. Initiating a lawsuit - a diplomatic move & a preventive weapon in international affairs Liberalism vs. Realism Source: http://rcsinvestments.files.wordpress.com 10

11. Vietnam (small country): make advantage of values from Liberalism (UNCLOS 1982, UN Charter, Int’ Court of Justice, International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea)  Dissuasion weapon  preventing tensions to war “Persistence in peaceful negotiation”, “16 Golden Words”, “4 Goods”  not belong to any school of int’ relations  intimidation, arrangement 11

12. Suggestion: initiate a lawsuit Suggestion: initiate a lawsuit 1. HY-981  International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (German)/ International Court of Justice (Netherlands)/ 1. HY-981  International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (German)/ International Court of Justice (Netherlands)/ court established in accordance with UNCLOS procedure as in the measure taken by the Philippines 2. Dispute over Paracel archipelago  International Court of Justice Source: http://www.itlos.org 12

13. http://www.viet.rfi.fr/viet-nam/20140125- tren-15000-ngan-chu-ky-vi-hoang-sa-goi-den- lien-hiep-quoc http://www.viet.rfi.fr/viet-nam/20140125- tren-15000-ngan-chu-ky-vi-hoang-sa-goi-den- lien-hiep-quoc 13

14. http://www.boxitvn.net/bai/26708 Lê Trung Tĩnh, Nguyễn Quang A Thứ Hai ngày 26/5/2014, Thư yêu cầu lãnh đạo Việt Nam đưa Trung Quốc ra tòa đã được gửi đến ba nhà lãnh đạo của Việt Nam: ông Trương Tấn Sang, ông Nguyễn Tấn Dũng, và ông Nguyễn Sinh Hùng.Thư yêu cầu lãnh đạo Việt Nam đưa Trung Quốc ra tòa 14 http://boxitvn.blogspot.fr/2014/06/ung-nen-lay-viec-kien-ra-mac- ca.html Đừng nên lấy việc kiện ra mặc cả

15. 4. Taking China to court and/or War Source: http://projectdoorway.files.wordpress.com 15

16. 4.1. Persistent negotiation  potential risks of war - Maintain protest at sea by fisheries surveillance vessels  armed conflicts at sea - Localized attacks  pressure, fright  Vietnam: either surrender or counterattack  war 16

17. 4.2. War would not help solving dispute - War  unlikely to help settle dispute thoroughly (from history: 1974, 1979, 1988…) - Legal means  each party: fair, free to use tools (reasoning, evidences), judgment: rational, clear-cut, public, enjoy international recognition - War crimes + sufferings 17

18. 4.3. War erases history - Each party distorts related history for its sake  heroic, pathetic images - Decades  disillusioned  hope no war 4.4. Lawsuit as means of war prevention 18

19. 5. Political impacts from initiating a lawsuit against China New manner of response to China Free from China’s politico-economic influence Enhance mutual understanding, reconciliation among Vietnamese people Vietnamese: get access to universal values  request justice 19

20. 6. China’s possible immediate & short-term economic reprisals Block some imports from Vietnam for some period of time (Ex: Philippines) Source: http://www.ecvv.com 20

21. 7. Long-term macro-economic reprisals related to trade balance, cooperation, investment  Short term: affect Vietnamese people’s living  Medium, long term:  solve weaknesses, free from China’s shade  more equitable partners (U.S., EU…) 21

22. 8. China’s possible economic reprisals in long term Not easy / ready for China to take economic reprisals (Ex: Philippines, Vietnam’s approval of Law on Vietnamese Sea 21/06/2012) Economic ties among countries  globally monitored, criticized if “unreasonable” and prolonged 22

23. 9. Conclusion Initiate a lawsuit against China: - civilized action - Active form of foreign relations, effective solution of war prevention - Create positive political impacts Dealing with economic reprisals  Short term: some difficulties  Long term: solve problems, weaknesses in economic relations with China 23

24. THANK YOU 24