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ACM 97 Laws of Predictions Gordon Bell Microsoft The Folly 1.0.

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Presentation on theme: "ACM 97 Laws of Predictions Gordon Bell Microsoft The Folly 1.0."— Presentation transcript:

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2 ACM 97 Laws of Predictions Gordon Bell Microsoft The Folly 1.0

3 ACM 97 THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

4 ACM 97 Copyright 1997 ACM, Association for Computing The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. The files distributed by this server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACMs copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to: THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

5 ACM 97 James Burke Master of Ceremonies

6 ACM 97

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9 GORDON BELL

10 ACM 97 Laws of Predictions Gordon Bell Microsoft The Folly 1.0

11 ACM 97 I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. Thomas Watson Senior, Chairman of IBM, 1943 ACM 97

12 Harvard Mark I aka IBM ASCC

13 ACM 97 Predictions require some history. The computer hadnt been invented. Watsons prediction held for 10 years. You need history to predict. ACM 97

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15 Navy Delphi Panel 1969 Card readers will peak at 1500 cards per minute by 1974 and then their use will decline. Advances in cores, wire, and thin film will provide large memories with one million words by ACM 97

16 Ill bet well be manufacturing cores in H. Lamire VP Manufacturing, Digital 1975 ACM 97

17 A technology can come from nowhere and wipe you out! MOS memories and micros were introduced in By 1976, MOS memories wiped out core memories. ACM 97

18 Moores Law 60%/yr. Memory -- 4 x size every 3 years 10 G 1 G 100 M 10 M 1 M 100 K 10 K 1 K 0.1 K ACM 97

19 Moores Law predicts 2.55 PetaBytes/chip in 30 years. On 1/97 a U.of Minn. team stored one electron in a cell at this density. Nathan Myhrvold Microsoft, 1/97 ACM 97

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21 Top 10 8 reasons we predict 10. A vision and challenge ACM 97

22 Top 10 8 reasons we predict 10. A vision and challenge 7. To plan and avoid surprises – MBA schools say so – To maintain staff & budget ACM 97

23 Top 10 8 reasons we predict 10. A vision and challenge 7. To plan and avoid surprises – MBA schools say so – To maintain staff & budget 6. To extract great gobs of money – With a petaflops, we could … – Its our Grand Challenge... ACM 97

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25 Top 10 8 reasons we predict 5.You have to: business plans, … grants 4.To stimulate new zero growth markets and lure investors into new ventures ACM 97

26 Top 10 8 reasons we predict 5.You have to: business plans, … grants 4.To stimulate new zero growth markets and lure investors into new ventures 3. A job. Futurists do it for pay. 2. To celebrate anniversaries and have conferences ACM 97

27 Top 10 8 reasons we predict 1. To bet on the future and earn $$$s. ACM 97

28 AT&T will not have screwed up its purchase of NCR by anon 1992 ($100) ACM 97

29 By 1997 Video-on-Demand will be available and operating in six cities and... Raj Reddy & Ed Lazowska 1992 (winners get fed) ACM 97

30 By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use. Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray 1996 (one paper, loser gets fed) ACM 97

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32 For short-term predictions, bet against the optimist. They are likely to be wrong. Longer term, science-based predictions have a good chance... wait 11 years (Meads Rule) ACM 97

33 For short-term predictions, bet against the optimist. They are likely to be wrong. Longer term, science-based predictions have a good chance... wait 11 years (Meads Rule) Organizations usually behave poorer than anyone can predict ACM 97

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35 Gordon Bell Future of Computing at MIT, 1972 Future computers are BOTH cheaper AND faster model posited Semiconductor companies may make the computers We need networks, else people are the network that serve computers Semiconductors (bipolar) just improve for 6 more years

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37 Progress will continue for just 6 more years! One generation beyond the product being worked on If you are actually doing it as an engineer... you tend to be very conservative ACM 97

38 Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace! Gordon Bell and Jim Gray ACM, 1997

39 ACM 97 Outline Cyberspace: platforms, networks, and cyberization ACM 97

40 Outline Cyberspace: platforms, networks, and cyberization Some Laws from failed predictions Useful exponentials for prediction Computers we might predict ACM 97

41 Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information Coupling to all information and information processors ACM 97

42 Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information Coupling to all information and information processors Pure bits Bit tokens State: places, things, and people State: physical networks ACM 97

43 Everything will be in Cyberspace Is this a challenge? Our goal? Our quest? or Fate? Cyberization enables new computing platforms that require new networks to connect them – Infrastructure supports the content – Three evolutionary dimensions ACM 97

44 Region/Intranet Campus Home Body World Continent Cyberspace: A Network of... Networks of... ACM 97

45 Data Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? Telephony Television ACM 97

46 Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space Computation Communication Cyberization ACM 97

47 Some more Laws from failed predictions to guide the journey into Cyberspace ACM 97

48 There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. Ken Olsen President, Chairman and founder of Digital, 1977 ACM 97

49 UNIX is Snake Oil. Ken Olsen 1987 ACM 97

50 I wouldnt put my company on the Internet. Ken Olsen, Chairman Modular Computer Systems ComputerWorld 1996 ACM 97

51 Equating yourself to the average user/buyer is risky... unless youre an average user. ACM 97

52 Navy Delphi Panel Bernstein, 1969 Some form of voice I/O will be in common use by 1978 at the latest! A computer will interpret simple spoken sentences by ACM 97

53 Speech systems will be commercialized because all significant steps have been made. Harry Olsen RCA Labs, 1962 ACM 97

54 Speech typewriter: Microphone analyzer code typer pages With translation: Microphone analyzer code translator code typer pages Translated speech: Microphone analyzer code translator code synthesizer output speech ACM 97

55 Speech predictions are optimistic and have been wrong. Mobs and especially committees predict poorly. ACM 97

56 ISDN will be ubiquitous by Irwin Dorros, VP Long Lines ATT, 1981 Unfortunately, ISDN is still likely to become the ubiquitous connection, by default, for the next 5 years. Gordon Bell, ACM 1997

57 ACM 97 Network bandwidth becomes available slower than the most conservative prediction. ACM 97

58 We under-estimate the devastating power of companies & planners, lawyers & government, to foul up predictions. But to really foul up requires an econometric model! ACM 97

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60 Parallel processing computer architectures will be in use by Navy Delphi Panel 1969 ACM 97

61 In Dec computers with 1,000 processors will do most of the scientific processing. Danny Hillis 1990 (1 paper or 1 company) ACM 97

62 DARPA, 1985 Strategic Computing Initiative (SCI) A 50 X LISP machine Tom Knight, Symbolics A 1,000 node multiprocessor Gordon Bell, Encore All of ~20 HPCC projects failed! ACM 97

63 Bell Prize winners Speedup: 2000X Moores law: 100X Spend more: 2X ECL CMOS: 10X Teraflops 100 Gigaflops 10 Gigaflops Gigaflops

64 ACM 97 Petaflops by 2010 DOE Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) ACM 97

65 : Over a Petaflops is possible Moores Law x Spend more ($100M $500M) 5x Centralization of centers3x Commoditization (competition)3x Gordon Bell, ACM 1997 ACM 97

66 Parallel processing is a constant distance away. Our vision... is a system of millions of hosts… in a loose confederation. Users will have the illusion of a very powerful desktop computer through which they can manipulate objects. Grimshaw, Wulf, et al CACM Jan. 1997

67 ACM 97 Predictions are easy… especially about parallelism. Doing is hard. Predictions about parallelism were risky… now they are predictable. ACM 97

68 Vannevar Bush c1945 There will always be plenty of things to compute... With millions of people doing complicated things. memex … stores all his books, records, and communications, and... can be consulted with speed and flexibility Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia Speech to text Head mounted camera, dry photography

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70 Steve Mann in Cyberspace ACM 97

71 Moores Law is based on data and understanding. Faith in science and a vision can be used as a predictor… but being Vannevar Bush and being really lucky helps! ACM 97

72 Predicting with data when change is exponential Exponentials let you predict anything you want. But beware of how you use them! ACM 97

73 1. We get more ACM 97

74 2. New overtakes old ACM 97

75 3. Things get cheaper ACM 97

76 4. Newer & cheaper wins? Old New New ACM 97

77 Bob Lucky, Vice President Bellcore, 1995 If we couldnt predict the Web, what good are we? ACM 97

78 Exponentials change everything … you cant see em coming! ACM 97

79 Internetters growth Internet Growth extrapolated at 98% per year World Population extrapolated at 1.6% per year ACM 97

80 Internetters growth Internetters PCs TVs & Phones World Population Gp by 2000 Negroponte1 Gp by 2000 Negroponte ACM 97

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82 Computing and communication predictions: processing, memory, and networks ACM 97

83 EDSAC (c1949) ACM 97

84 Tera Giga Mega Kilo Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year Processing

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86 Tera Giga Mega Kilo Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per yearStorage Backbone Memory Processing Telephone Service 17% / year ??

87 ACM 97 Microprocessor performance 100 G 10 G Giga 100 M 10 M Mega Kilo Peak Advertised Performance (PAP) Moores Law Real Applied Performance (RAP) 41% Growth

88 ACM 97 Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year 1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E %= Teraops 40%= Petaops 60%= Exaops ACM 97

89 New overtakes old ACM 97

90 Processor performance RISC shift CMOS microprocessor Bipolar processors VAX 9000

91 ACM 97 Things get cheaper ACM 97

92 Computers by price are stable. Lower priced computers form! new models come at constant price and increased effectiveness constant performance, lower price computers come and establish new use ACM 97

93 Newer & cheaper wins? Old New New ACM 97

94 The mainframe is dead! … and for sure this time! PRICEPRICE Mainframe Server PC ACM 97

95 Predictable computers The network computer System-on-a-chip industry Home Area Network Body Area Network: on body, Guardian Angel ACM 97

96 CMU wearable computers

97 ACM 97 Medtronics Implanted Cardioplastic

98 ACM 97 4 Experts Predict Bionics Wired, February 1997 Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005 Bionic Limbs 2013 Artificial Vision 2040 Bionic Person (unlikely) ACM 97

99 Observations on predicting Existence proofs are essential, otherwise its faith and luck. Numbers and data are our friends. Bet on predictors who are grounded, intuitive, imaginative, and lucky. Because it could, doesnt mean it will. Its usually just the economics, stupid! ACM 97

100 Everything will be in cyberspace ACM 97

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104 GORDON BELL


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