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© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-1 Deregulation in the Aftermath of California Steve Kean EVP and Chief of Staff INGAA Analyst Conference Houston, Texas July 13, 2001
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-2 Overview Rationale for deregulation California – What happened – Outlook – Lessons learned Status of deregulation
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-3 Rationale for Deregulation
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-4 Benefits of Deregulation Not a zero sum game Net benefits created Better solutions to transition issues Cost savings Improved reliability Improved product choices Improved allocation of capital Improved allocation of risk Improved development and deployment of technology Improved u speed u flexibility u solutions to problems in the market
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-5 Benefits - Cost Savings Price Decrease from Deregulation in Five U.S. Industries Source: Brookings Institution/George Mason University 40% Percent Decrease RailroadsTruckingAirlines Long Distance Telecom Natural Gas
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-6 Benefits - Cost Savings U.S. Average Gas Prices by Sector 1985 vs. 1998 (In constant 1998 Dollars) The average price to all end users has fallen 43% to date under open access. In the decade prior to open access, prices increased by 71% adjusted for inflation. -26% -34% -49% -56% $/MMBtu 1985 1998
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-7 Benefits - Cost Savings City Gate Gas Prices U.S. DOE Natural Gas Annual U.S. DOE Natural Gas Monthly Sources: $/MMbtu Billions
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-8 7.25¢ 6.71¢ 6.85¢ 6.54¢ 5.40¢ Wholesale Liberalization; Privatization of electricity supply, distribution and fossil fuel generation Electricity supply choice extended to more large customers Coal industry privatized (stranded cost recovery) Fossil fuel levy reduced; applied only to public sector generation Retail electricity competition begins Benefits - Cost Savings U.K. Market Transition Timeline (In Cents per KWH) Source: OECD Data
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-9 Benefits - Product Choice Electrons are fungible but contract terms and contracting parties are not Physical product differentiation –quantity –delivery terms - firm, nonfirm and everything in between –flexibility to changes in load requirements (timing) –flexibility in take obligations- –equipment –ease -- combining services
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-10 Benefits - Efficiency in Capital Investment (Avoiding future stranded costs) Open market produces forward price signals –market-driven, not projections –signals producers whether investment in new facilities will be supported by the market Open market forces producers to find lowest cost solution –enhancements to existing facilities –conservation, DSM investments –debottlenecking of existing system Forward market makes it possible to finance long term investments more economically
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-11 Benefits - More efficient allocation of risk Price volatility imposes costs separate and apart from price level – investors – manufacturers Today, risks of price volatility are allocated to those who are least able to handle them - end users In an open market, risk is allocated to those in the best position to manage it - intermediaries
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-12 What happened Outlook Lessons learned California
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-13 What Happened? Supply and Demand Fundamentals Politically compromised industry restructuring
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-14 CALIFORNIA DREAMING
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-15 Supply and Demand Economic growth throughout the West has driven up demand Power plant construction hindered by regulation Old power infrastructure leading to frequent breakdowns Emissions limits constraining existing generation Poor hydro conditions this year have reduced supplies available to import-dependent California
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-16 Columbia RiverCalifornia 2001 2000 1999 55% 93% 80% 94% 116% 108% 1998 1997 1996 98% 153% 152% 84% 138% 129% Have We Been Fooled by Unusually Strong Hydro in Recent Years? Volume Runoff Percent of Normal Source: Columbia River data from NOAA/National Weather Service, Northwest Rivers Forecast Center. California data from CDWR
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-17 Historical Volume Runoff at The Dalles
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-18 1993-94Blue Book: Pure deregulation / open access 1994-95CPUC Orders:Emergence of centralized market institution 1995-96The legislature takes over (AB1890): 1996-97FERC rubberstamps 1998Implementation:- $500 million computer system - Three month delay - Very little residential switching - Some (10-15%) large customer switching From Sound Economics to Political Compromise Something for everyone (customer choice, divestiture, environmental and rate payer subsidies, stranded cost recovery)
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-19 Summary u Very little new capacity added u Tight emissions limits u Increasing dependence on imports u Old, inefficient (polluting) facilities subject to breakdown – emissions costs – gas costs u Lower hydro capacity availability u Reduced imports into California u Flat to lower supply u Increased demand u Shortages Blackouts u Skyrocketing wholesale prices u Powerful NIMBY/BANANA sentiment u Rapid economic growth throughout Western U.S. u Highly compromised, negotiated legislation u Retail Rate Caps (no demand response) u Stranded cost recovery mechanism inhibiting switching (utilities continue to serve most load) u State constructed spot market; no hedging u Deregulated wholesale prices u Bankruptcy u Utilities totally exposed to spot prices
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-20 Outlook
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-21 Prices are Falling Natural Gas June prices at Topock fell to $7.85 MMBtu - first time prices had fallen to below $8/MMBtu since November (Natural Gas Weekly) – The American Gas Associate recently confirmed continued rapid replenishment of storage Electricity Contracts for on-peak power to Southern California form July- September recently traded at $145 MWh, compared to up to $450/MWh in April (DJ Newswire)
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-22 Demand is Decreasing Industrial load shedding and utility load reductions in Pacific Northwest Higher retail rates in Pacific Northwest, which have been in effect since last fall Higher CA retail rates going into effect in January and June 2001 Conservation: Californians used 11% less energy in May 2001 than in May 2000 (Source: California Energy Commission, L.A. Times, 06/06/01) – Some predict demand will further decrease once consumers begin to get their bills reflecting higher electricity rates – But, most of reduction appears to be weather-related, so far
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-23 Demand is Decreasing Weather: The month of May was warmer than the normal in the state-as much as 8 degrees hotter in San Jose, according to the Western Regional Climate Centre On an average Northern California temperatures have been close to 65ºF However, the recent drop in temperatures might be a temporary development as a hot summer is anticipated
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-24 Supply is Increasing Increased imports: Hydropower from the Pacific Northwest has increased (Source: LA Times, June 06, 2001) Plants have been brought back on-line after maintenance QFs are coming back on line Natural Gas Storage injections have increased significantly
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-25 Natural Gas Spot Prices - SoCal (Daily midpoint in $/MMBtu) Source: Gas Daily $51
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-26 Natural Gas Prices - SoCal (in $/MMBtu) Spot (monthly midpoint average) Future Source: Gas Daily Price Guide (Dec 98 - Jul 01)and Enron
Peak Spot Electricity Prices - COB (Daily weighted average in $/MWh) Source: Megawatt Daily $3,000
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-28 Electricity Prices - COB (in $/MWh) Source: Megawatt Daily, Nymex (7/11/01) Spot (end of month) Future
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-29 Peak Spot Electricity Prices - Palo Verde (Daily weighted average in $/MWh) Source: Megawatt Daily $4,175
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-30 Electricity Prices - Palo Verde (in $/MWh) Spot (end of month) Future Source: Megawatt Daily, Nymex (7/11/01)
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-31 Futures Prices Have Dropped Palo Verde September Contract Trade Date Contract Price ($/MWh) $318/MWh drop Source: NYMEX
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-32 Lessons Learned
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-33 Lessons Learned Liberalization did not cause Californias problems – supply and demand – regulatory barriers to new facilities to hedging to choice and competition Full liberalization is the answer for California – real choices, real opportunities to manage price risk – ease of entry to generation sector – real market prices to end users (phase in) – remove utility (and state regulators) from the procurement role What doesnt work – heated political rhetoric (actually increased costs in California) – price caps (discourage new production and conservation) no alternative allocation mechanism proposed
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-34 Status of Deregulation
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-35 Electric Restructuring Update TX OK NM AZ CA NV UT CO KS OR WA ID MT WY ND SD NE MN WI IA MO IL IN OH AR LA MS AL GA TN KY NC WV VA FL SC MI PA NY ME VT NH RI CT NJ DE MD AK HI MA Restructuring Legislation/ Order Enacted Restructuring Enacted, Delayed Implementation A Commission and/or Legislative Investigation is Ongoing No significant Activity Source: Enron Government Affairs Status current as of 07/01 * * * * * Utilities Outsourcing MA implementing process Central Maine Power Bangor Hydro PECO GPU DQE
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-36 Natural Gas Restructuring Update For Residential and Commercial Customers Source: Enron Government Affairs Status current as of 07/01 Note: Industrial open nationwide States with legislation passed or comprehensive PUC order issued for all customers; however, the quality of access may vary States with access for some commercial customers States considering reform Competitive Bidding for customer No Activity
© UB-SK-DEREGULATION-0701-37 ®
DC Responses Received WA OR ID MT WY CA NV UT CO AZ NM AK HI TX ND SD NE KS OK MN IA MO AR LA WI IL MI IN OH KY TN MS AL GA FL SC NC VA WV PA NY VT NH.
© 2000 JN Natural Gas Outlook & Issues AB 1890 Implementation Group Annual Meeting November 14, 2000 ®
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