Presentation on theme: "UKIP and Immigration Ethnic Change, UKIP and the BNP Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, web:"— Presentation transcript:
UKIP and Immigration Ethnic Change, UKIP and the BNP Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, firstname.lastname@example.org@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm; web: www.sneps.net
Data Understanding Society survey – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. – 460 UKIP supporters or voters – Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward – longitudinal Local Election Data, 2010-12 – UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940 – Census predictors
UKIP: Not BNP in Blazers BNP+UKIPAll WhiteGap Public officials don't care71.774.648.626.0 No say in Govt74.972.449.223.2 Male69.760.246.014.2 English Identifier77.082.068.014.0 All friends are White British62.368.256.411.8 Degree3.09.018.59.5 No qualifications31.929.421.87.6 Political beliefs important for identity40.340.933.37.6 Younger Age Band58.827.242.531.6 Population density (ward)25.222.324.92.9 % Minority in ward12.810.312.02.5 Belong to a Religion (i.e. Christian)31.952.351.220.4 Can trust most people16.733.139.816.4 Semi & Routine occupation46.030.025.016.0 Social Housing26.711.513.215.2 Profession important for identity62.874.874.112.0 Difficult finances22.214.171.1241.0 Unemployed12.83.04.49.8 Broadsheet reader2.78.813.36.1 % Minority in LA15.312.913.92.4 Change in % minority in ward, 2001-115.94.7 1.2 White British Isolation (LA)4.34.1 0.2
UKIP and BNP share Low qualifications, few with degrees Alienated from political elites and government English not British national identity Opposed to immigration Male
Local Council Elections UKIP Census Index: Total Population (ward) % Retired (ward) % Degrees (ward) % No qualifications (ward) % English as a Share of White British (LA) Low Deprivation (LA) Predicts around 40% of variation in UKIP vote in councils they contested during 2010-12
UKIP not a response to local ethnic change. BNP vote much more so (i.e. Barking) UKIP supporters dislike immigration in the abstract, BNP more likely to be in close-knit communities directly affected by immigration
Does UKIP own immigration? UKIP supporters more outstandingly Euroskeptic than anti-immigration (Ford & Goodwin 2014, p. 193), unlike BNP 82 percent of White British want immigration reduced, 60 percent ‘reduced a lot’. Not a minority. UKIP long way to go to reach most anti- immigration voters
UKIP a Coalition UKIP cross-class, multiple issues, unlike BNP Elderly profile unique. Europe more an old person’s issue than immigration Can UKIP encompass old and young, middle and working class? Tension between rural base and urban working class
UKIP: Rural Traditionalists or Working-Class Populists?
Policy Questions Limit Rate of Change; Reduce White British Isolation – Housebuilding – Refugee dispersal – Zoning
Policy Questions Housebuilding: garden cities rather than sprawl; dispersed construction rather than concentrated; mixed size, traditional architecture Refugee dispersal: to transient areas with prior experience of diversity Zoning: organic short-distance dispersal of minorities; retention of White British in diverse areas; tighter zoning in diverse Authorities, looser in whiter Authorities
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