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Ethnic Fractionalization and Interstate Conflict Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London

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1 Ethnic Fractionalization and Interstate Conflict Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London

2 Ethnic Fractionalization ELF = 1 - ∑ (share of group i out of a total of n groups), for all groups Chance that two random individuals will be from different groups. Tanzania: many groups, each with small share. High ELF. N. Ireland or Sri Lanka: two big groups with big share, plus a few smaller ones. Middling ELF. Japan, Botswana: one big group with most, and a few small minorities with small numbers. Low ELF.

3 Ethnic Fractionalization (Fearon-Laitin 2003)

4 Ethnic Fractionalization and Civil War Fearon & Laitin 2003; Collier & Hoffler 2002; Kalyvas 2006, etc vs. Montalvo and Reynal-Querol 2005; Urdal 2008 Some point to ethnic polarisation or exclusion Only one paper on fractionalization and international conflict (De Soysa and Neumayer 2008)

5 ELF & International Conflict: Theoretical Perspectives Realism – external conflict deflects attention from elite illegitimacy (Van Evera 1994); helps to provide cohesion in fractious states : There are many in our times who...[wish]... that this heated passion that is among us might be deflected into some war with our neighbors – Montaigne, 16 th c. More internally pacified and united states less aggressive.

6 Theories… Constructivism/symbolism: nations constructed in ethnically diverse contexts may opt for universalistic ‘missionary’ nationalism (Roshwald 2006; Kumar 2003).

7 Dominant Minorities and Ideology USSR: expansionist socialism (Stalin, Trosky, Mikoyan…). 50% Russian. Iran: Islamist mission (Ahmedinedjad). 45-50% Persian, 92% Shia. Sudan: Islamist. 5% Arab, 70% Muslim Iraq: 22% Sunni, 75-80% Arab, 97% Muslim Syria: 11% Alawi, 90% Arab, 87% Muslim S. Africa: 18% Xhosa, 80% Black African

8 19 th c USA: Missionary and Ethnic Nationalism America is "possessed of an idea capable of infinite expansion. This idea is that of individual liberty …Our Gospel was meant for expansion… the world needs it, and it is our duty to give it to the world.“ – Rev. H. Carroll, 1898 “When you shall have extended your dominion over the states of Mexico and Central America, you will have added twelve million of a population, for the most part perfectly imbecile.” – John Bell, 1857

9 Xenophobia and Anti-Imperialism USA (Love 1997; Beisner 1968); Russia, Britain, Turkey Saideman and Ayres (2008) – Diverse ex- communist states more expansionist and irredentist; Hungarians, Croats, Romanians, Russians reject irredentism, worrying it will bring in minorities

10 American Missionary Nationalism

11 Measuring Interstate Conflict Unit is the Dyad: i.e. France-Malawi 1991, France-Malawi 1992, France-Iraq 1992… Militarized Interstate Disputes (MID) - 1748 events of 30,144, 1945-92 KOSIMO – 3142 events of 42,843, 1945-97 war, violent crisis, nonviolent crisis, and latent crisis (KOSIMO only) Latent crisis: UK v Spain over Gibraltar since 1964, US v Cuba since 1962

12 Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1992 State1State2 AlbaniaSerbia ArmeniaAzerbaijan Burma (Myanmar)Thailand CroatiaSerbia FranceSerbia FranceIraq GermanySerbia Guinea-BissauSenegal IndiaSri Lanka IndiaPapua New Guinea IranIraq IranUnited Arab Emirates IraqKuwait ItalySerbia Korea, Democratic PeKorea, Republic of MalaysiaSingapore MoldovaRussia Estonia RussiaUkraine RussiaGeorgia RussiaSweden SerbiaGreece SerbiaTurkey SpainSerbia United KingdomSerbia United KingdomIraq United StatesPeru United StatesSerbia United StatesIraq

13 ArgentinaUnited Kingdom ArmeniaAzerbaijan BoliviaChile CanadaFrance ChadLibya ChileArgentina ChinaKorea, Republic of ChinaLaos ChinaIndia ChinaVietnam, Socialist R ColombiaVenezuela CroatiaSerbia EcuadorPeru FranceMauritius FranceLibya GreeceTurkey HondurasEl Salvador IndiaBangladesh IndiaPakistan IranSaudi Arabia IranUnited Arab Emirates IranIraq Kuwait KOSIMO disputes (includes latent), 1992

14 Hypothesis: Diversity and Interstate Conflict Ethnically fractionalized states too consumed with internal civil war when born Once consolidated, search for unifying ideologies (liberalism, socialism, pan-Arabism, pan-Islamism, pan-Africanism) External conflict unifies across lines of ethnicity and sect (i.e. Iran) True also for major powers (USA, USSR)

15 State Age vs. State Age x Ethnic Fractionalization

16 Table 1. Domestic Ethnic Predictors of International Conflict (Base Model) MID 1MID 2 KOSIMO 1 KOSIMO 2 Ethnic Fractionalization (combined) -.032 (.003)*** -.951 (.146)*** -.030 (.004)*** -1.529 (.146)*** State Founding Dates (combined) 0.000 (0.000).0003 (.0000)*** Ethnic Fractionalization*State Dates 1780.538 (280.621) *** 2981.192 (279.393)*** constant.087 (.003)*** -.084 (.144) 1.02 (.003)*** 1.281 (.141)*** Pseudo R N29,59127,77336,63534,086 * p<.05; ** p<.01; ***p<.001

17 Predictors of Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1946-1992 CoefficientS.E.z-score Distance Between States-0.77***0.06-13.9 Military Power Balance-0.330.29-1.14 Different Cold War Bloc0.37*0.172.16 Different Cold War Bloc*Different Civilization0.59**0.202.88 Different Civilization-1.10***0.29-3.76 Lower of Two Democracy Scores-0.15***0.02-9.53 Lower of Democracy Scores*Different Civilization0.06**0.023.38 Shared Border1.26***0.274.63 Shared Border*Different Civilization0.310.211.46 Major Power0.73**0.282.63 Modernization5.50***0.816.78 Modernization*Different Civilization1.360.871.56 Years since last MID-0.57***0.03-22.06 midyrs1 (spline 1)-0.01***0.00-11.62 midyrs2 (spline 2)0.00***0.009.09 midyrs3 (spline 3)0.00***0.00-6.19 Eastern European-1.45***0.16-8.81 Sub-Saharan African-0.52*0.26-1.99 Elevation difference (combined score)0.00 0.32 Noncontiguous states (joint score)0.64***0.087.7 State founding dates (joint)0.01***0.006.4 log Land Area (kms)0.11***0.034.27 log Population Density0.26***0.038.02 Ethnic fractionalization state 1-31.55***5.66-5.58 Ethnic fractionalization state 2-40.02***5.74-6.97 Same religion0.090.160.57 Ex-Colony (combined score)0.38***0.085.03 Ethnic fractionalization state 1*(1/state f. date 1)56934.66***10719.675.31 Ethnic fractionalization state 2*(1/state f. date 2)75562.33***11063.576.83 Major power score*combined ethnic fractionalization-0.390.31-1.27 Major power score*major power ethnic fractionalization0.880.641.37 Ethnic fractionalization (combined)*shared border0.80***0.233.54 Sub-Saharan Africa*ethnic fractionalization (combined)0.73***0.203.71 constant-36.22***4.56-7.94 Pseudo R 2.586 N27,701

18 ELF & Conflict: Similar Relationships

19 State Founding Date (COW)

20 Logistic regression. Pseudo-r2=.586; N= 27701


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24 BRICS: Homogeneous and Peaceful? China: 92% Han Russia: 80% Russian Turkey, 70-75% Turkish India: 80% Hindu (20- 40% Hindi) Brazil: 95% Portuguese speaking (50% white) *Indonesia: 40% Javanese, 87% Muslim

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