….using futures approaches to integrate strategic thinking into strategy development and planning
What ES is and why do it ES and strategy Getting started with ES Back to work
IndustryNumber Consulting 31 Education 15 Other 11 Govt-Federal 6 Missing 6 Government - State & Local 4 High Tech - Other3 Advertising/Marketing/PR 2 Aerospace & Defense 2 Banking & Securities 2 Financial Services 2 Hospitality, Travel, Tourism 2 Manufacturing 2 Accounting 1 Energy, Chemical, Utilities 1 Retail 1 Software - Other 1 Telecommunications 1 Transportation & Distribution 1 Experience LevelNumber Total beginner22 Just staring out37 Experienced35
What’s your definition of environmental scanning?
ES is the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment, to better understand the nature of trends and deep drivers of change and their likely future impact on your organisation.
Environmental Scanning (ES) is the foundation for high quality strategic thinking…
…that informs the development of futures ready strategy for an organisation.
Futures ready strategy is flexible strategy that readies an organisation to respond to the challenges of the future.
Quick Survey How many of you have formal scanning systems operational in your organisations?
Why a Scanning System? To strengthen the quality of the thinking that goes into your strategy development To let you understand what’s coming and what’s changing and what it means for you To give you enough time to prepare and be proactive To give you a competitive edge To move you beyond busy - out of crisis management mode
Improvement action identified/changes to plans identified Making VU 2016: A Statement of Purpose Strategic vision and objectives University Priorities 2008-2010 Outcomes & Strategies to implement Unit Strategic Plans 2008-2010 Faculties, Schools & Service areas Implementation of University Priority strategies Internal & External Planning Inputs Ongoing environmental scanning Educational & societal trends Government policy drivers Legislation University cross-sectoral strategies Other University Plans (eg OHS, Disability, Staff Equity etc) SPDP: individual Staff Plans Quality Improvement Reviews (QIRs) Approval of operational plans Review of current year ’ s performance Reviewed each year in first half of year Reviewed and updated in August/September; finalised following QIRs in November Held in November each year University Budget Process Iterative process to align budgets and plans Budget sign-off at end September Quarterly Budget Reviews Department Plans Current until 2016 QIR Inputs Organisational Unit QIR Portfolios Faculty Review Outcomes Annual Course Reporting Course Review Subject Evaluation Outcomes AQTF outcomes AUQA Follow up
Downplay or dismiss staff beliefs, hopes and fears about the future
While the need for planning has never been greater, the relevance of most of today’s planning systems and tools is increasingly marginal (Fuller, 2003).
It may well be that the typical strategic planning exercise now conducted on a regular and formal basis and infused with quantitative data misses the essence of the concept of strategy and what is involved in thinking strategically (Sidorowicz, 2000).
A major assumption of the strategic planning literature … is that all of these terms [strategy, planning] necessarily go together. [That is] Strategy formation is a planning process, designed or supported by planners, to plan in order to produce plans” (Mintzberg, 1994).
Current strategy processes live in the pragmatic futures realm. Working within the existing paradigm, making it better, but not challenging it. We call it ‘strategic planning’.
Beyond strategic planning – to strategy development and implementation. Moving into the progressive futures realm, where we challenge the current paradigm and re-interpret how we do business to meet the challenges of the future.
Moving from pragmatic to progressive approaches requires a strong focus on building a high quality strategic thinking capacity in your organisation.
We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.
...because what works today will probably not work for those who follow you in the future...
Adapted from K. van der Heijden Industry Environment Social Environment Suppliers Clients Competitors Organisation Driving Forces Driving Forces Factors / Trends Issues / Forces Social Technological Economic Ecological Political … Customers Members of Wider Society The External Environment
Organisation Industry Learning Educational Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative Students Suppliers Stakeholders
Trend (grouping of events) Driver (moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) Gradually, you will be able to group similar ‘hits’ into broader categories – trends. Things Happening
But it might still feel like this – a bit of a maze to try and work your way through …
Trend (grouping of events) Driver (moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) What we are really interested in exploring is what is driving these trends. Things Happening
And this is where the connections between the trends will surface and it will start to make sense.
Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years Most scanning takes place here
Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals,blogs Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years But we need to look on the fringe as well
If you’re looking for new ideas that don’t yet exist, don’t talk to normal people because they’re just consuming what is available today – find the weirdos and see what they are doing, what they’re making on their own, and say gee – is there something I can mainstream from this? Tom Kelly Founder, Ideo
Whatever takes you away from conventional thinking… Trends Emerging Issues The weird and unimaginable
Shaping Tomorrow Trendwatching Brain Reserve Now and Next The Tomorrow Project Strategic Business Insights Arlington Institute Some Scanning Sites
What is happening today with your issue? What are other people saying about its evolution over time? How credible are they? Looking for…
New, first Idea Change Surprise Opportunity Threat Diversity of perspectives Looking for…
Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation. Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures 2004 Looking for…
What are the major driving forces? What big surprises are on the horizon? What are possible discontinuities (wildcards)? What are the sources of inspiration and hope? As you scan… Richard Slaughter, Foresight International
If you think …‘that’s rubbish’, stop. First, ask why do I think it’s rubbish? Second, take another look. Third, ask what would enable you to accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is happening. As you scan…
Does the hit help you understand your issue? Does the hit identify a new way of seeing the issue? Does the hit help you to explore trends and their potential impacts? Shaping Tomorrow
Does the hit aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives? Does the hit challenge existing assumptions underpinning current polices and practice? Shaping Tomorrow
Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition – your expertise, knowledge and insight is the best gauge of usefulness. But, remember your blind spots!
Title Summary Source and date published Initial assessment of implications Tag/VSTEEP category What to Record
For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by Strategic Business Insights) 2009-01-03 Streaming Video and Security (Information Week Daily 26 November 2001), describes the shift of Packet Video (a developer of video streaming technology) from consumer to security applications. The company’s technology could provide live feeds from the cockpits of hijacked planes.
A snapshot report of the external environment. A background paper for the strategic planning cycle. Regular trend reports on single trends. More detailed quarterly reports on implications of trends and drivers. Quick snippets about what you are finding. Rating the hits – staff involvement. In all cases, add in trigger questions to prompt discussion/conversation.
What impact might it have on your industry today and in the future? What might be the implications for your organisation? How might you respond?
How, and in what ways, could this information be relevant to my organisation?
Never underestimate your influence. Make it part of your deliverables. Look for ‘friendlies’. Start local.
Andy Hines, An Audit for Organizational Futurists: 10 Questions Every Organizational Futurist Should be Able to Answer, 2003 Have good organisational diagnostics: can smell the cheese, but will jump ship. Get it, and can use the system – very rare. Don’t bother – they are waiting for you to fail! They will follow you blindly – just like lemmings!
Long term Uncertain Divergent Incomplete Beyond linear Disruption