Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 7 The Disunited States of Europe? THE BALKANS F.Y.R.O.M.
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 8 The Disunited States of Europe? CYPRUS
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 9 The Disunited States of Europe? CYPRUS small country, but major problem for Europe; Turkish entry depends on resolution should Turkey be admitted to EU? Is it "European"? strategic geographical position large, but non-extreme Muslim country large number of Turks in Germany (Gastarbeiter) entry contentious within & between European states human rights problems: death penalty etc Turkey's attitude to its past: Kurdish problem, Armenian massacre - 1915 to 1918Armenian massacre - 1915 to 1918
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 10 The Disunited States of Europe? TURKEY
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 11 The Disunited States of Europe? TURKEY
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 12 The Disunited States of Europe? CYPRUS Ottoman Turks ruled Cyprus for over three centuries; ceded to Britain in 1878 Independence from Britain achieved August 1960, after four-year military struggle between UK and guerrillas of EOKA (National Organization of Cypriot Fighters) who sought ‘enosis’ (union with Greece) - which was anathema to Turkish community political leader of liberation movement, Archbishop Makarios - also head of island’s Greek Orthodox Church - returned from exile and elected President December 1959 island’s new constitution was elaborate compromise between British and rival Greek and Turkish communities, between whom considerable distrust remained as part of deal, British kept two large tracts of land for military purposes, known as ‘Sovereign Base Areas’ and accounting for 5 per cent of island’s total area deal fell apart in July 1974, when Makarios was deposed by military coup (allegedly backed by military regime in power in Greece) within days, Turkish troops arrived on northern coast of Cyprus, ‘invited’ by Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash, to intervene in order to protect Turkish community on island Greeks failed to respond effectively, not least because of simultaneous collapse of military junta in Athens, besides which Greek-Cypriot-controlled National Guard was insufficiently equipped to combat fully mobilized army after Turkish army had taken control of northern third of island, ceasefire arranged under UN auspices
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 13 The Disunited States of Europe? CYPRUS island partitioned ever since and UN peacekeeping forces maintain truce in November 1983, Turkish part of island proclaimed itself Kuzey Kibris Turk Cumhuriyeti (‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’, TRNC) - however, formal recognition of self-styled country only granted by Turkey and a few statelets ‘TRNC’ still run by Rauf Denktash - dominant political figure in enclave for almost 30 years - at last two presidential elections - April 1995 and April 2000 - re-elected with comfortable majorities for vast majority of international community, legitimate government of Republic of Cyprus (Kiprikai Demokratika) is Greek-Cypriot administration in Nicosia - until February 2003 led for a decade by President Glafkos Clerides - that month, he was deposed at most recent presidential election by Tassos Papadopoulos, candidate of center-right Komma Dimokratika (Democratic Party) present government is coalition of DIKO, AKEL - Communist Party which has long been single largest force in Greek-Cypriot politics - and smaller KISOS party principal issue for Greek-Cypriot government remains same; how to normalize relations with ‘TRNC’ and reunify island. numerous diplomatic initiatives ended in failure - main sticking points are: - balance and concentration of power within any unified government - Turkish troop concentrations in north - return of property relinquished by Greek refugees and since occupied by Turkish settlers
BELGIUM Walloons Flemish The Disunited States of Europe?
BELGIUM - the Walloons (wŏlūnz'), group of people living in S Belgium who traditionally spoke dialect of French called Walloon, but who today mostly part speak standard French Walloons, numbering some 3.5 million, reside mostly in provinces of Hainaut, Liège, Namur, Luxembourg, and Walloon Brabant, in contrast to Dutch-speaking Flemings of northern provinces movement for reviving Walloon literature centered in Liège in the 19th cent.; today the language is considered moribund since medieval times economic and social background of Walloons has differed radically from that of Flemings, and cleavage became even more pronounced with Industrial Revolution Walloon part of Belgium contains major mining areas and heavy industries, while Flemings engage mainly in agriculture, manufacturing (particularly textiles), and shipping tension between Walloons and Flemings has long been critical political issue; in 1970 plan was approved recognizing cultural autonomy of Belgium's three national communities: Dutch-speaking Flemings of the north, the French speaking Walloons of the south, and bilingual Brussels The Disunited States of Europe?
GERMANY reunification 1990 massive economic gaps OstMark given parity with Dmark billions transferred west to east special tax on "Wessies" not only economic, but cultural gulf The Disunited States of Europe? bureaucracy high social benefits endemic unemployment public refusal to give up "acquis" socialist/capitalist divide still strong ….
ITALY industrial - bulk of economy many small/medium business many family-owned business fashion, style, engineering adaptability was trump card large black market (27%?) serious competitivity problems some call for return of lira … North of Rome South of Rome agricultural - little industry earthquake-prone Vesuvius!! The Disunited States of Europe?
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 18 The Disunited States of Europe? GIBRALTAR ceded to Britain in perpetuity by the Treaty of Utrecht, 13 JULY 1713
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 19 The Disunited States of Europe? BASQUE COUNTRY many Basques want independence long-running "terrorist" (or "liberation") movement considerable autonomy granted by Central government
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 20 The Disunited States of Europe? European Languages
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 21 The Disunited States of Europe? Religion
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 22 The Disunited States of Europe? European Nation States
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 35 The Disunited States of Europe? The Common Agricultural Policy introduced in 1960 - aim to provide a reasonable standard of living for farmers and reasonably-priced food for all intention also (especially in France) to maintain traditional pattern of farming - avoid massive drift away from country to cities facilitated free movement of farming products within the EU after lean war years, concern to ensure reliable food supply and self-sufficiency this aim succeeded; in fact, there is now oversupply oversupply has led in past to so-called "butter-mountains" and food dumping A Success?
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 36 The Disunited States of Europe? The Common Agricultural Policy medium and larger farms are paid not to produce; smaller ones rely on subsidies some rich farmers are paid to leave their fields fallow (unused) subsidies do not go to all farmers; mainly to dairy farming the CAP accounts for 42% of the EU budget, limiting investment in other areas it distorts world trade in agriculture; developing countries are particularly penalised; they can't penetrate the EU cost of subsidizing poor farmers in new EU countries will put unbearable strains on budget; reform is essential reform will be strongly resisted by current beneficiaries Britain and France in particular have immovable positions A Failure?
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 37 The Disunited States of Europe? The British & French positions on agriculture Britain said it will veto any cut in the 4.4bn euro (£3bn) rebate unless farm subsidies are overhauled, a stance which puts it at loggerheads with France. French President Jacques Chirac refused to discuss any cut in farm subsidies and says the rebate should "under no circumstances be linked to a reform of farm expenditure." From the EU summit meeting in June, 2005 Where the money goes --->
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 38 The Disunited States of Europe? The Subsidization of Farming in the World limits this places on African exports to rich countries now a hot, political topic
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 39 The Disunited States of Europe?
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 40 The Disunited States of Europe? Symptomatic of EU budgetary problems … The British rebateThe British rebate French President Jacques Chirac defends French EU farming subsidies against the British, wielding their famous rebate … "The problem is the imbalance of the budget: 40% of the budget goes to meet the needs of 5% of the population and 2% of European jobs." Tony Blair, July 2005
EAST EUROPE fears Russia pro-USA - anglophile low taxation lots to catch up business EU money development The EuroTango SPAIN PORTUGAL EU cash business rapid development South American leanings HOLLAND usually the good guys business-oriented fed up immigration paying too much taken for granted GERMANY industrial powerhouse major exporter unemployment East-West divide political turmoil over-regulated high tax less anti-US FRANCE anti-USA, statist powerful lobbies (farmers, civil servants) high taxation cultural fears "social model" France's place in world insular tendancy ITALY style, chic small businesses big North/South divide struggling to compete call for lira return dodgy politics BALTICS dynamic, go-ahead ambitious anti-regulation high potential fear Russia "Olde Europe" IRELAND incoming investment favourable business climate grab the money while it lasts … UK common market close to USA "liberal" economy anti-regulation anti-Brussels lower taxation SCANDINAVIA detached,calm uncorruptible business-oriented high taxation common market
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 42 The Disunited States of Europe? A View from the USA Robert J Samuelson, "Washington Post" - June 15th, 2005 Europe is slowly going bust - not just because it's overshadowed by Asia and USA Europe's birthrates have dropped well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children for each woman of childbearing age for Western Europe as a whole, rate is 1.5 - it's 1.4 in Germany and 1.3 in Italy already about 17% of the population is 65 and older by 2030 that would be 25%, and by 2050 almost 33% How can European economies support so many old people?
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 43 The Disunited States of Europe? Europe's economy already weakening - in 1970s annual growth for the Euroland countries averaged almost 3%; from 2001 to 2004 the annual average was 1.2 percent in 1974 those countries had unemployment of 2.4 percent; in 2004 the rate was 8.9% Western Europeans feel their way of life threatened. one solution to low birthrates is higher immigration but many Europeans don't like the immigrants they have and don't want more one way to revive growth would be to reduce social benefits, taxes and regulations but that would imperil Europe's "social model," which supposedly blends capitalism's efficiency and socialism's compassion The European Economy ….
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 44 The Disunited States of Europe? What about the USA, as reported by OECD? unemployment: with high unemployment benefits, almost half of Western Europe's jobless out of work a year or more; U.S. figure about 12 percent early retirement: in 2003 about 60 percent of Americans aged 55 to 64 had jobs. comparable figures for France, Italy and Germany were 37%, 30% and 39% Europeans like early retirement, high jobless benefits and long vacations sources of this benevolence (high taxes, stiff regulations) weaken economy - with ageing populations, contradictions will only grow some research suggests that high old-age benefits partly explain low birthrates - with the state paying for old age, who needs children as caregivers? high taxes may also deter couples from assuming added costs of children other countries are also aging and face problems similar to Europe's, but the ageing is more pronounced in Europe and a few other nations (e.g. Japan), precisely because birthrates are so low U.S. birthrate, for example, is 2.1; even removing births to Hispanic Americans, it's about 1.9
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 45 The Disunited States of Europe? What about the USA, as reported by OECD? Europeans could do something about their predicament - but mostly they're not some countries (Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands) have acted, and there are differences between East and West Europe But in general Europe is immobilized by its problems classic dilemma of democracy - too many people benefit from status quo to change it; but status quo isn't sustainable status quo in France called "les acquis" (e.g. train drivers, school & university teachers) even modest efforts in France and Germany to curb social benefits have triggered backlashes and government cave-ins many Europeans - maybe most - live in a state of delusion: believing things should continue as before; they see almost any change as menacing All this bad for Europe - and the United States: a weak European economy is one reason the world economy is shaky and so dependent on American growth
Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 46 The Disunited States of Europe? Europe is preoccupied with divisions at home, but is looking to the past Europe not strong American ally, not only because it disagrees with some U.S. policies but also because it doesn't want to make the commitments required unwilling to address their genuine problems, Europeans become more reflexively critical of America this gives the impression that they're active on the world stage, even as they're quietly acquiescing in their own decline French fear of cultural swamping adds to the mixture as does "Olde Europe's" search for a role on world stage France traditionally anti-American (Anglo-Saxon): de Gaulle prevented UK entry into EU and once withdrew from NATO and find alternative to it France's schizophrenia towards UK and USA …. Iraq …..