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Research Methods in Politics Chapter 16 1 Research Methods in Politics 16 Factor Analysis and other Advanced Techniques

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Research Methods in Politics Chapter 162 Teaching and Learning Objectives 1. to understand the meaning and application of factor analysis and cluster analysis 2. to learn how to carry out factor analysis 3. to introduce other advanced functions and techniques including the binomial and Poisson distributions and time series analysis

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Research Methods in Politics Chapter 163 Factor and Cluster Analysis –characteristics (variables) occur together frequently in social world, e.g. poor health, bad housing, poverty –they may be observable symptoms of underlying common factors – latent variables poor health poor health bad housingpovertydistribution ? bad housingpovertydistribution ? high unemploymentof power high unemploymentof power Low skills Low skills factor/latent variable cluster

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Research Methods in Politics Chapter 164 R-matrix X1X1X1X1 X2X2X2X2 X3X3X3X3 X4X4X4X4 X5X5X5X5 X1X1X1X11 X2X2X2X20.51 X3X3X3X X4X4X4X X5X5X5X

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5 R-matrix X1X1X1X1 X2X2X2X2 X3X3X3X3 X4X4X4X4 X5X5X5X5 X1X1X1X11 X2X2X2X20.51 X3X3X3X X4X4X4X X5X5X5X Principal factors

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Research Methods in Politics Chapter 166 Rotation- Varimax Factor chart Factor scores

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Research Methods in Politics Chapter 167 Advanced Statistics Software SPSS, Minitab, STATA etc SPSS, Minitab, STATA etc available on 30-day trial available on 30-day trial maintained by universities maintained by universities SPSS SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Services Statistical Package for the Social Services Statistical Product and Service Solutions Statistical Product and Service Solutions Data Data –Data Editor Data View Data View Variable View Variable View

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Research Methods in Politics Chapter 168 Time Series Analysis UnemploymentYears Underlying trend Seasonal component Irregular component Cyclical component

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Research Methods in Politics Chapter 169 Method of Moving Averages Example: Iraqi civilian casualties 2003/06 NumberMonths Trend Line

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Research Methods in Politics Chapter 1610 Distributions Normal Distribution Normal Distribution Binomial Distribution Binomial Distribution only two outcomes, e.g., yes/no only two outcomes, e.g., yes/no success, p... failure q success, p... failure q Bernoulli Bernoulli probability of event 0.5 probability of event 0.5 Poisson Distribution Poisson Distribution probability of rare event probability of rare event used to identify whether larger incidence of exceptional event, e.g., clusters of rare illnesses can be attributed to chance or local circumstances which might involve local cause used to identify whether larger incidence of exceptional event, e.g., clusters of rare illnesses can be attributed to chance or local circumstances which might involve local cause

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Research Methods in Politics Chapter 1611 Questions for Discussion, Workshops or Assignments 1. Work through each of the examples given in this chapter. Seek help when you encounter difficulties 2. Collect new data from the class population of their assessment of candidates for UK prime ministers using the criteria listed in the chapter. Add four additional criteria of your own choice. Carry out a factor analysis and comment on the results 3. Obtain unadjusted data for registered unemployment in the UK since May Apply time series analysis. Identify the size of irregular movements and offer cogent potential explanations 4. Two Departments of Politics, having equal and good RAE and TQA ratings in new universities A and B both have 30 places available for similar Politics degrees. A attracts 56 applicants whilst B attracts 73. Could the variation have arisen entirely by chance or does it indicate that Bs department or university are significantly more attractive than A? If so, what should A do? 5. The Conservative party has a working majority of 11 over all other parties combined in the House of Commons following the general election. On average, five MPs die each year causing by-elections to be held. The new prime minister believes that harsh economic policies are essential for the first three years. He assumes that half the Tory-held seats will be lost in by- elections. Calculate the probability that the party can survive in office for three years. (Remember that each time a government loses one seat, their majority reduces by two).

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