Presentation on theme: "CERTeT VISIONS AND PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY Gabriele Grea*, Giuseppe Siciliano* *Center for Research on Regional."— Presentation transcript:
CERTeT VISIONS AND PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE, SHARED AND SMART MOBILITY Gabriele Grea*, Giuseppe Siciliano* *Center for Research on Regional Economics, Transport and Tourism Bocconi University Milan XV Riunione Scientifica della Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica (SIET) "Trasporti, organizzazione spaziale e sviluppo economico sostenibile", Venezia 18-20 settembre 2013
CERTeT Transport, mobility, FREEDOM Transport Demand for transport is a derived demand, depending from the demand of other economic sectors. Users «consume» transport services in order to access other goods or services. Relevant variables: time, space, cost. Mobility Mobility can be considered as a functionality/capability. User is the core, accessing services under given «constraints». Relevant variables: time, space, cost, experience/accessibility FREEDOM.
CERTeT Turning constraints into opportunities (I) Some facts More than 60% of EU citizens live in urban areas, where 85% of GDP is produced. Because of congestion costs, 1% of UE GDP is lost every year. Traffic contribution to CO2 production is 40%. One third of road fatalities happens in urban environment (and victims are mainly walkers or bikers). From EC Green Paper “Towards a new culture for urban mobility” (september 2007)
CERTeT Sustainable development approach: Use of environmental, cultural and economic resources, minimizing external effects at local and global level; Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs; Maintaining attractiveness and competitiveness of the local environment. Turning constraints into opportunities (II) Sustainable mobility is a "win-win strategy" because it combines environmental and economic advantages with the stimulus to economic growth and the livability of cities.
CERTeT 5 Users, how will behave? I. SUSTAINABLE Quality of environment Energy consumption/production Safety Global emissions
CERTeT 6 II. SHARE Space Vehicles Information and knowledge Travel experiences Users, how will behave?
CERTeT 7 III. SMART SUSTAINABLE SHARED Seamless Flexible Maximising our value of time Looking for innovative and added value services Users, how will behave?
CERTeT How to measure Smart Mobility? The objective To measure and compare the degree of smartness of a meaningful panel of Italian cities in terms of mobility. This area is particularly relevant in terms of impact for the life of the city population, and so is the potential impact of technological advances and of policy innovations. The ratio The indicator favours cities which allow their citizen to meet the following needs: To travel safely – which we consider as a fundamental requirement, in light of both technological developments in terms of vehicle design, and the increased efficiency of transport services which can replace the private one. To travel seamlessly – it is the conceptual key pillar of the concept of “intelligent mobility”, in light of the complexity of trips which happen in an urban environment and to all related critical issues. To be connected to global networks – it is relevant in order to measure the seamlessness of the inside of a city with its outside (accessibility to/from other nodes of the global network). O BJECTIVE AND RATIO
CERTeT How to measure Smart Mobility? M ETHODOLOGY A performance indicator is associated to each need, which measures the degree in which the need is met in each city. The variables are selected so that they can represent the use- benefits-possibilities generated by the mobility systems, rather than sheer indicators of endowment. The Smart Mobility Indicator of city i is then defined as M i Where is a correction of the performance indicator P of the city i for the need n defined as: Where p is the “smartness threshold” chosen for the indicator P. Such smartness thresholds have been introduced in order to favour cities in which results are good for all the indicators involved: we include completeness in the evaluation of smartness, as the ability to generate an “intelligent” environment in terms of all the defined needs. On the contrary, if a city is a best practice in only one of the needs, but emerges as “not smart” in other areas, the indicator will handicap it.
CERTeT A Smart Mobility indicator for Italian cities P ERFORMANCE INDICATORS NeedPerformance indicator Notes To travel safely Accident rates Fatalities per 100 inhabitants (source: Euromobility) To travel seamlessly Seamless mobility indicator An ad hoc indicator which sums up data concerning: LPT demand (LPT pax / population, avg 2008- 2010) Use of car sharing (users /population - Euromobility) Use of bike sharing (users/population + available bikes/population – Euromobility) Avg speed of LPT vehicles (ASSTRA – Anci) A premium is given for City Logistics practices To be connected to global networks Air accessibility indicator An average of the Intercontinental and the Continental air accessibility indicators as calculated by Certet-Unioncamere, which consider: - Frequency of flights from the city to all destinations - Economic importance of such destinations
CERTeT A Smart Mobility indicator for Italian cities R ESULTS Performance indicators are summed by means of a weight vector: Low accident rates: 0,2 Connectivity to global networks: 0,3 Seamlessness urban mobility: 0,5 Thematic icons show if the city meets the smartness threshold in each area (green), or is close to it (yellow) or fall definitely short (red).
CERTeT 12 The car of the future Energy efficient * Eco- friendly * *IBM Automotive Global Study 2020 What about cars then? Driverless Modular Specialized Connected … «The emergence of a new automobile DNA (…) promises a renassaince in vehicles design. It will open up for exploration spaces of design possibilities that have never before seriously considered. (Mitchell W. J. et. Al, Reinventing the automobile, MIT Press 2010)
CERTeT And in the end, is it still just about making cars? Automotive sector: New products New services Business models Supply chains Service providers: Specific services (e. g. fleet management, car rental, etc.) Wider range of (sustainable) mobility services, B2B and B2C Users: CAR OWNERS MOBILITY CONSUMERS
CERTeT 14 And now, an idea coming from far away… “Within a year, I hope, we shall begin the manufacture of an electric automobile. (…) Mr. Edison and I have been working for some years on an electric automobile which would be cheap and practicable. Cars have been built for experimental purposes, and we are satisfied now that the way is clear to success. The problem so far has been to build a storage battery of light weight which would operate for long distances without recharging. Mr. Edison has been experimenting with such a battery for some time.” (Henry Ford, New York Times interview 11.1.1914).
CERTeT … will be possible tomorrow? Source: M. de Saint-Chéron, Mobilitytech Milan, Oct 19th 2010
CERTeT E-mobility: which factors are driving the system? VEICHLES (supply) USERS (demand) INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT (rules) SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUND (models) HARDWARE INTERACTIONS (networks)
CERTeT 17 Vehicles - Batteries and OEMs plans Batteries: Performance 150 km to 300 km. Duration from 3 years (1000 deep discharge) to 10 (in ten years). Costs from 700-1000 $/kWh, to 300$-400$. OEMs plans: Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles
CERTeT 18 Scenarios and forecasts Comparison of scenarios in terms of vehicle sales (EU level) Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles
CERTeT 19 Scenarios and forecasts 20202030 New car salesB1_I1B1_I2B2_I1B2_I2B1_I1B1_I2B2_I1B2_I2 Conventional94,5%90,2%92,0%85,7%84,6%58,5%80,0%38,4% PHEV5,0%8,9%6,4%11,4%13,5%32,5%15,4%32,6% BEV0,5%0,9%1,6%2,9%1,9%9,0%4,7%29,0% New car sales shares in 2020 and 2030 Source: JRC ipts 2010, Nemry F., Brons M., Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles
CERTeT Users - Electro mobility strategic Diagram “non-mainstream people, with different connotations ranging from "a computer expert or enthusiast" to "a person heavily interested in a hobby“ (…)” [wikipedia]
CERTeT 21 Hardware interactions: impacts on the grid Source: JRC ies 2009, Perujo A., Ciuffo B. Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System
CERTeT 22 Source: JRC ies 2009, Perujo A., Ciuffo B. Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System Hardware interactions: impacts on the grid
CERTeT Business models for mobility a.Product oriented b.Service oriented Use (e.g. car sharing, fleet management, etc.) Result (transport services) Approach to classification of business models for electric mobility, based on 3 driver clusters: vehicle + battery infrastructure integration grid + vehicle Business models Source: Lerch et al. (2010)
CERTeT 24 Business model drivers: vehicle+battery Source: Lerch et al. (2010)
CERTeT 25 Business model drivers: infrastructure Source: Lerch et al. (2010)
CERTeT 26 Business model drivers: infrastructure+vehicle Source: Lerch et al. (2010)
CERTeT 27 Conclusions Behavioral approach to mobility, how smart will we be? How to measure the level of smartness for mobility in cities? How mobility will be demanded, provided, «consumed»? Electromobility and energy: which future, integration, business models?
CERTeT For feedbacks and further discussion: Gabriele Grea firstname.lastname@example.org@unibocconi.it Skype gabgrea Google hangouts email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org “If we don’t start imagining this future, and then start trying to help shape this future, we’re going to be left behind, because this future is going to happen with or without us” Bill Ford jr, 2013