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Hubert Klüpfel1 Go Traff Go HT Understanding the Impact of Regulatory Changes.

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Presentation on theme: "Hubert Klüpfel1 Go Traff Go HT Understanding the Impact of Regulatory Changes."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hubert Klüpfel1 Go Traff Go HT Understanding the Impact of Regulatory Changes

2 Hubert Klüpfel2 Go Traff Go HT Scope (1/2) Impact of the amendments to the guidelines on evacuation and abandonment on the industry Regulations concerning evacuation of passenger ships Recent amendments to SOLAS regulation The High Speed Craft Code SOLAS regulation II-2/28 1.3

3 Hubert Klüpfel3 Go Traff Go HT Scope (2/2) IMO Guidelines for evacuation analyses of Ro- Ro and other passenger vessels Methodology for evacuation analyses at an early stage of design Performance standards for evacuation time and procedure Comparison simplified and advanced evacuation analysis

4 Hubert Klüpfel4 Go Traff Go HT Titanic and SOLAS

5 Hubert Klüpfel5 Go Traff Go HT Table of Contents Preliminaries Part I The guidelines for evacuation analysis Part II Comparison between simplified and advanced analysis Part III Safe Area, Safe Return to Port

6 Hubert Klüpfel6 Go Traff Go HT Preliminaries  Slides for download Printed Information  available here About myself and TraffGo

7 Hubert Klüpfel7 Go Traff Go HT Part I Guidelines for Evacuation Analysis

8 Hubert Klüpfel8 Go Traff Go HT SOLAS, HSC, and MSC/Circ. SOLAS II-2/28.1 evacuation analysis High Speed Craft Code 2000 sec. 4.8.2 MSC/Circ. 1033 for Ro-Ro and Pax and MSC/Circ. 1166 for HSC Two methods: simplified (flow calculations) and advanced (computer simulations)

9 Hubert Klüpfel9 Go Traff Go HT IMO (1/3) SOLAS STCW Load lines COLREGS SUA

10 Hubert Klüpfel10 Go Traff Go HT IMO (2/3)

11 Hubert Klüpfel11 Go Traff Go HT Bulk Liquids and Gases (BLG) Carriage of Dangerous Goods, Solid Cargoes and Containers(DSC) Fire Protection (FP) Radio-communications and Search and Rescue (COMSAR) Safety of Navigation (NAV) Ship Design and Equipment (DE) Stability and Load Lines and Fishing Vessels Safety (SLF) Standards of Training and Watchkeeping (STW) Flag State Implementation (FSI) IMO (3/3)

12 Hubert Klüpfel12 Go Traff Go HT Overall Evacuation Time Several components Detection – Decision – Alarm – Reaction – Assembly – Embarkation – Launching T = A + t walk + 2/3 (E+L) + 

13 Hubert Klüpfel13 Go Traff Go HT T_evac simplified MSC/Circ. 1033, Simplified

14 Hubert Klüpfel14 Go Traff Go HT T_evac advanced MSC/Circ. 1033 MSC/Circ. 1033, Advanced

15 Hubert Klüpfel15 Go Traff Go HT Computation of T Advanced method (simulation): T = A + t walk + 2/3 (E+L) +   =10 min (night) and  =3:20 min (day) Simplified method (spreadsheet): T = A + 2.3 t walk + 2/3 (E+L)

16 Hubert Klüpfel16 Go Traff Go HT Guidelines – Further Questions How to learn it? How long does an analysis take? When to use which method? How do I know I’m right? Is the last question important?

17 Hubert Klüpfel17 Go Traff Go HT What’s done for Buildings? There’s also a simplified method (which was the model for the first draft MSC/Circ. 909) Less complex environment Otherwise many similarities –Effort –When to use which method –…

18 Hubert Klüpfel18 Go Traff Go HT Most relevant regulations SOLAS Chapter II-2 Fire Protection, Detection, Extinction FSS Code SOLAS Chapter III Life Saving Appliances and Arrangements LSA Code

19 Hubert Klüpfel19 Go Traff Go HT Part II Comparison of Simplified and Advanced Method

20 Hubert Klüpfel20 Go Traff Go HT When to use which method Simplified Method – Calculation –For small ships –If you won’t do it again Advanced Method – Simulation –Complex scenarios –If you’re doing it repeatedly

21 Hubert Klüpfel21 Go Traff Go HT How to learn it? Simplified Method – Calculation –Detailed knowledge of the method’s rationale –Patience and strictness Advanced Method – Simulation –How to handle the simulation program –What model is the simulation based on (if you want)

22 Hubert Klüpfel22 Go Traff Go HT Comparison of the Efforts Simplified Method – Calculation –Can be done with paper and pencil –Same effort for each new scenario / each repetition Advanced Method – Simulation –You need a computer simulation –Repetition is cheap

23 Hubert Klüpfel23 Go Traff Go HT Example of Application Example of application: RoPax ferry Application of the simplified method Workflow for the advanced method Comparison of the results

24 Hubert Klüpfel24 Go Traff Go HT Trial – Simulation - Reality Optimal Conditions (evacuation trial) Increase d Stress Emergency Evacuation Reality Simulation Simplified Analysis Stress, Danger, Injuries Assumptions? Evacuation Trial

25 Hubert Klüpfel25 Go Traff Go HT Ro-Pax Night Case

26 Hubert Klüpfel26 Go Traff Go HT Simplified Method Other Decks M Gang 1Gang 2Gang 3 Exit Gang 1Gang 2Gang 3Gang 1Gang 2Gang 3

27 Hubert Klüpfel27 Go Traff Go HT Simplified Method Abstract geometry into pipe system Create spreadsheet calculation => t =...

28 Hubert Klüpfel28 Go Traff Go HT Steps Pruning Coloring Modeling Scenarios Simulation Evaluation

29 Hubert Klüpfel29 Go Traff Go HT Work Flow Re- Formatted Drawing Original CAD Drawing SimulationEvaluation => t 95% =...

30 Hubert Klüpfel30 Go Traff Go HT Time required Grid-based Floor-plan EvaluationSimulation Preprocessed CAD CAD- drawing

31 Hubert Klüpfel31 Go Traff Go HT Comparison of Times Advanced method (simulation): T = T Movement + 2/3 (E+L) T Movement = max (A i + t walk, i )+  Simplified method (spreadsheet): T = A + 2.3 t walk + 2/3 (E+L)

32 Hubert Klüpfel32 Go Traff Go HT Comparison of Results ShipSimplified A+T Advanced T Movement Pax 11486 s1943 s RoPax 11515 s1560 s RoPax 21062 s1510 s Pax 2932 s1909 s Differences due to: simplified method neglects sequence of events 600 seconds safety margin for advanced method

33 Hubert Klüpfel33 Go Traff Go HT Current (FP 51 / MSC 83) Safety Margin Response Time Counter Flow Factor Overall Evacuation Time Goal: T advanced  T simplified

34 Hubert Klüpfel34 Go Traff Go HT Aligning Response Times e.g. Night Case: Simplified method is favoured by 3 minutes. simplified: advanced: t /min 10 t response t walk 713 +3 min

35 Hubert Klüpfel35 Go Traff Go HT Response Time e.g. Night Case: Current reaction span is too big. response time variance = 1,5 min response time variance = 3 min (advanced: 6 min) response time variance = 0 min (=simplified)

36 Hubert Klüpfel36 Go Traff Go HT Refining Definitions Significant Congestion Reduced Escape Route Availability Simplify Tables (e.g. Demographic Parameters) Counterflow Passenger & Crew Distribution

37 Hubert Klüpfel37 Go Traff Go HT Additional Test Case Simple Geometry Show how simulation parameters influence result (sensitivity analysis) Make results publicly available

38 Hubert Klüpfel38 Go Traff Go HT Scaling the Number of Persons Day Case: Distribution according to FSS code  there would be more persons in the analysis than the ship is certified to carry Problem is solved by scaling the numbers This is not in the spirit of the FSS code Example…

39 Hubert Klüpfel39 Go Traff Go HT Refining the Guidelines capacity 100% FSS code 75% day case 75%, scaled MVZ 2250018751364 MVZ 5300022501636 Sum550041253000 Capacity of the vessel: 3000 The scaled numbers are smaller than the numbers derived from the FSS code. But what happens during lunch time?

40 Hubert Klüpfel40 Go Traff Go HT Part III Large Passenger Ships Safe Area Safe Return to Port

41 Hubert Klüpfel41 Go Traff Go HT Developments What will the future look like? Larger Ships How to get back passengers back to shore

42 Hubert Klüpfel42 Go Traff Go HT Five Pillars Prevention Improved Survivability Regulatory Flexibility Operations in areas remote from SAR facilities Health Safety and Medical Care

43 Hubert Klüpfel43 Go Traff Go HT Passenger Ships (1/4) alternative designs and arrangements; safe areas and the essential systems to be maintained while a ship proceeds to port after a casualty, which will require redundancy of propulsion and other essential systems; on-board safety centres, from where safety systems can be controlled, operated and monitored;

44 Hubert Klüpfel44 Go Traff Go HT Passenger Ships (2/4) fixed fire detection and alarm systems, including requirements for fire detectors and manually operated call points to be capable of being remotely and individually identified; fire prevention, including amendments aimed at enhancing the fire safety of atriums, the means of escape in case of fire and ventilation systems; and

45 Hubert Klüpfel45 Go Traff Go HT Passenger Ships (3/4) time for orderly evacuation and abandonment, including requirements for the essential systems that must remain operational in case any one main vertical zone is unserviceable due to fire  three hours

46 Hubert Klüpfel46 Go Traff Go HT Passenger Ships (4/4) MSC 82 December 2006 Will enter into force on 1 July 2010

47 Hubert Klüpfel47 Go Traff Go HT Larger Ships Genesis: 5400 passengers 360 metres (1,181 feet) in length and 47 metres across

48 Hubert Klüpfel48 Go Traff Go HT Impact on the industry “The ship is its own best lifeboat.” Safe Area Concept Safe Return to Port Crew Training Medical and Health Care

49 Hubert Klüpfel49 Go Traff Go HT R & D Projects like “Fire Exit”  determination of response time Crew training Simulation Directional Sound

50 Hubert Klüpfel50 Go Traff Go HT Identification of Roles What would you do if you were A wheelchair user A child A parent A crew-member The master of the ship

51 Hubert Klüpfel51 Go Traff Go HT Thanks for your attention Go Traff Go HT I‘ve put up a link to this presentation

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