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Craig Morris Petite Planète www.petiteplanete.org Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 “Energiewende” The German energy transition – what can other countries.

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Presentation on theme: "Craig Morris Petite Planète www.petiteplanete.org Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 “Energiewende” The German energy transition – what can other countries."— Presentation transcript:

1 Craig Morris Petite Planète Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 “Energiewende” The German energy transition – what can other countries learn?

2 Craig Morris, Petite Planète, The German energy transition, Kiev Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 Renewables International: news in renewables in Germany and abroad every workday

3 Craig Morris, Petite Planète, The German energy transition, Kiev Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 Website on German energy transition for Heinrich Böll Foundation end of October

4 Craig Morris, Petite Planète, The German energy transition, Kiev Solar and PV already close to baseload demand; will cut into baseload within decade when targets are met. Combined installed wind+PV will exceed peak demand by 25%

5 Craig Morris, Petite Planète, The German energy transition, Kiev Not April Fools: Renewables already increasingly cut into baseload, such as on Sunday, April 1.

6 Craig Morris, Petite Planète, The German energy transition, Kiev What happened at 4 pm on April 1? Left: solar power production Right: wind power Visit EEX Transparency website

7 Craig Morris, Petite Planète, The German energy transition, Kiev The result was negative prices at 4 pm. Good: firms benefit from low wholesale prices thanks to RE Bad: Investments in dispatchable conventional power less attractive

8 Craig Morris, Petite Planète, The German energy transition, Kiev RE shaves peaks, lowering wholesale prices (merit-order effect). Wind (light green) and solar (yellow) complement each other well. Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISEFraunhofer ISE

9 Craig Morris, Petite Planète, The German energy transition, Kiev RE shaves peaks, lowering wholesale prices (merit-order effect). Wind (blue) and solar (orange) complement each other well. Source: Bernard Chabot, Renewables InternationalRenewables International

10 Craig Morris, Petite Planète, The German energy transition, Kiev Conclusions: If Ukraine has ~22 GW summer peak demand, 11 GW of wind and 11 of solar in Ukraine should have similar effect Germany remains power exporter; grid stability best in EU (world?); CO2 emissions dropped again in 2011 despite nuclear phase-out  In mid-2012, Germany had 30 GW of wind and 29 of PV, each roughly equal to 50% of average demand (60-70 GW)  At 50%, RE offsets peak and medium load, lowers wholesale prices  Above that level, RE increasingly cuts into baseload  Increasingly, RE power will have to be stored or lost  PV currently makes up 5.3% of power supply, so 10% is feasible, but more will increasingly require (seasonal) storage  Countries with lots of air-conditioning (USA) have greater summer than winter peaks, so larger share of PV is possible there  Wind now makes up around 8% in Germany, ~20% easily feasible (assuming grid integration)


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