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Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world www.erm.comwww.erm.com Cecil County Comprehensive Plan Oversight Committee Meeting October.

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Presentation on theme: "Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world www.erm.comwww.erm.com Cecil County Comprehensive Plan Oversight Committee Meeting October."— Presentation transcript:

1 Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world Cecil County Comprehensive Plan Oversight Committee Meeting October 15, 2008

2 Today’s Agenda 5:15 p.m.Revised Scenarios 6 p.m.What Does Density Look Like? 6:45 p.m.How Much Should Cecil County Grow? 7:30 p.m.Preliminary CBA Factors 8 p.m.Adjournment

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4 Proposed Scenarios

5 Input from the Oversight Committee Let’s see the numbers! – Is this a “build out” plan or a “management” plan for 2030? – How much should Cecil County grow in the future? – What densities do we need to support future growth? – What do these densities look like? – Do the towns support the framework of the scenarios? »If so, how do we implement? Let’s see the details! – How do we translate these general ideas to specific areas? – What about the towns? (COG meeting in September)

6 Revising the Scenarios Some concern that there was not enough difference between the scenarios, and that elements of the Growth Centers scenario were unrealistic (urban open space) Changed the Growth Corridor and Greenbelts scenarios to reflect input from the Oversight Committee Added Protected Lands

7 Changes to Greenbelt Scenario The Resource Lands in the Greenbelt Scenario are larger than anything we've previously shown. These expanded Resource Lands are drawn in a way that is intended to cover contiguous natural resources such as agriculture, forest, and environmentally sensitive areas, using the following information: Productive agricultural soils, as shown in the County's soil layer, cross-referenced with information provided by the APM subcommittee Sensitive areas, as described above, plus Forest Interior Dwelling Species and Sensitive Species Review Areas Developed or committed lands (including "pipeline" development, as well as some land zoned for development) was used to exclude areas from the Resource Lands category 12-digit watersheds, used as boundaries in some cases Roads, -used as boundaries in some cases

8 Land Use Categories Development: Areas that would be developed on land served by public water and sewer. Rural (olive green): New development would be permitted, at relatively low densities, with NO extension of public water and sewer (except for health emergencies). No change from before. Resource Land: Zoning would permit only very low density development (likely at 1/20 or less). The eventual PPA(s) would be drawn within these areas, although every piece of Resource Land would not necessarily fall within a PPA. Protected Land: Land that is already protected from development by virtue of having sensitive areas (floodplain/wetland), public or private ownership, or easement. This includes federal, state, and county owned land; MALPF, MET, ESLC, and other easements, etc. Employment Centers Mixed Development: Areas that would be developed as mixed-use centers of residential, commercial, employment, and institutional uses. The specific mix of use types has not been defined. Towns

9 Growth Corridor The provision of water and sewer infrastructure is seen as a key force driving change, as the lack of infrastructure has been a constraint to growth. The County’s agreement with Artesian allows the development of Elkton West and opens the easternmost section of the growth corridor The growth corridor between Perryville and Elkton would remain substantially intact. The Mineral Extraction District would be developed as a mixed-use residential area flanked by employment areas as envisioned by the property owners.

10 Growth Corridor Original

11 Greenbelts The Greenbelts scenario assumes that the people of Cecil County do not want to develop to the extent depicted in the Growth Corridor scenario. To constrain future growth, additional lands are designated for rural protection and the greenbelts are wider than in the Growth Corridor scenario Greenbelts of protected lands would be interspersed within the growth corridor. The extent of developed areas around the towns of Rising Sun, Chesapeake City, North East and the Stewart property would be decreased. More emphasis would be given to protecting agriculture and environmentally sensitive areas than in the other scenarios

12 Greenbelts Original

13 Capacity Analysis Zoning District Current New Household Capacity BG0 BI0 BL0 DR14,919 M10 M20 MB0 MEA0 MH3,664 NAR3,985 OS0 RM12,742 RR2,298 SAR1,645 SR18,695 TR3,840 VR496 Municipalities5,228 Total67,512 Our planning assumption: Let’s start with the County’s capacity Based on current zoning, Cecil County has capacity for 67,512 additional housing units. Of this, 35,600 new housing units could be accommodated within the County’s Priority Funding Areas This is more than the 26,000 housing units identified in the 2030 projections.

14 Modeling the Scenarios Build-out versus 2030: – We are developing “build-out” scenarios so we can evaluate plausible futures for the County that assume a different land use pattern than we have today, and to consider areas like the Mineral Extraction Districts (which have no capacity assigned to them) Key question: What should the buildout number be? Our planning recommendation: Use Buildout plus an increment for the Mineral Extraction District

15 Housing Units for Model Runs Existing Housing Units (2005, including vacancy rate) 38,351 Capacity Analysis (from MDP build-out) 67,512 Mineral Extraction District (Stewart property) 5,000 Growth Increment (for Model Runs) 72,512 TOTAL110,863 CORRIDOR61,887

16 Projected/Potential Growth

17 What Does Density Look Like?

18 Scenario Land Use Residential Zoning DistrictAcres Existing Density (units/acre) Resource Lands MH, RM1, VR, DR, TR All others86,690 Rural NAR49, RR11, SR, MH5, DR, TR VR RM Development RR1, SR13, MH, VR1, NAR3, MEA396 DR, TR7, RM1, Urban Open SpaceAll districtsn/a Employment/ Development All districts9,626 Town DevelopmentAll Towns8, (unless specified by town) Growth Corridor Scenario

19 Scenario Land Use Residential Zoning DistrictAcres Existing Density (units/acre) Resource Lands MH, RM1, VR, DR, TR1, All others134,377 Rural NAR15, OS RR5, SR, MH, RM6, DR Development RR SR11, MH, VR1, NAR MEA136 DR, TR7, RM1, Urban Open Space All districtsn/a Employment/ Development All districts6,784 Town Development All Towns9, (unless specified by town) Greenbelts Scenario

20 What Does Density Look Like in Cecil County?

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22 Bethel Springs

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24 Northwoods

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26 Persimmon Creek

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28 Whitehall West

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30 Chesapeake Landing

31 How Much Should the County Grow?

32 Housing Densities in Comparable Corridors 2000 Data County Size (mi²) Size (acres)Population Pop/mi ² Housing Units HU/mi ² HU/ acre Cecil8353,41040, , Harford A1912,16049,5842,61019,2611, Harford B6440,96059, , Howard4931,36077,4131,58028, Newcastle A3421,76066,5441,95726, Newcastle B4730,080109,6122,33241, Average4931,62267,1811,64926,

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34 Cecil County Buildout and Projections YearPopulation Pop/mi ² Housing Units HU/ mi ² HU/ acre , , Buildout* 61, *Adding In the Mineral Extraction District 2005 Housing Units17,922 New Housing Capacity in Growth Area38,965 NHC on Stewart Property5,000 TOTAL61,887

35 Comparable Corridors

36 Cecil Growth Corridor

37 Harford Corridor A

38 Harford Corridor B

39 Howard Corridor

40 Newcastle Corridor

41 Preliminary CBA Factors

42 Choosing By Advantages The Fundamental Rule of Sound Decision-making: Decisions must be based on the importance of advantages. Choosing a Preferred Scenario

43 To illustrate the logic and simplicity of the CBA vocabulary, following are the CBA definitions of the terms attribute and advantage: An attribute is a characteristic, quality, or consequence of ONE alternative. An advantage is a beneficial difference between the attributes of TWO alternatives. Choosing by Advantages For this project, the scenarios are our alternatives.

44 Purpose of the CBA Group To give the Oversight Committee a role in determining the factors To learn and understand the CBA process To help the other members of the Oversight Committee understand and participate fully in the CBA workshop To review and refine the factors that we will use to evaluate the scenarios To identify the advantages of each attribute To generate a draft CBA matrix we will use in November

45 Function: Protect Cultural/Natural Resources Minimize Impacts to Mangroves/Wetlands Minimize Impacts to Coastal Barriers Minimize Impacts to Floodplains Minimize Impacts to Water Resources Protect the Cultural Landscape Provide Improvements to Water Quality Where Possible Mitigate Impacts to Native Vegetation Function: Meet the Needs of the Marine Research and Education Center Provide Direct Vehicular Access to the MREC via a Public Right of Way Have Access to Seawater Provide Adequate Space for Proposed and Existing MREC and NPS Programs Provide a Contiguous Site for All MREC Uses Construct the MREC on Available Land Address Need for Future Dredging Improve Operational Efficiency and Sustainability of Facility Function: Provide for Visitor Enjoyment Provide a Quality Visitor Experience Function: Provide Benefits to the Local Community Support Compatibility with Adjacent Land Uses Provide Socio-Economic Benefits to the Local Community Examples of Factors (and Functions)

46 Factors Alternatives East SiteSouth SiteWest Site Function: Protect Cultural/Natural Resources Minimize Impacts to Coastal Barriers Attributes Advantages Minimize Impacts to Floodplains Attributes Advantages Minimize Impacts to Water Resources Attributes Advantages Protect the Cultural Landscape Attributes Advantages Sample CBA Matrix

47 Setting Up the Evaluation Framework Identify Potential Factors – Growth Simulation model (MDP) – Traffic model (MDOT) – Water Resources model (ERM) – Others Run the Models/Evaluate the Scenarios Identify Factors that “Were Considered but Dropped Out of the Analysis” (no difference between scenarios) Set Up CBA Matrix Perform CBA

48 Start with Model Outputs Total Developed Acres New Developed Acres Development Capacity PDA Agricultural and Forest Land Lost Number of Residential Parcels Developed – Percentage within PFA Number of Acres Developed Inside PFA Number of Acres Developed Outside PFA Percent of County Preserved Number of Acres Preserved Level of Protection in Agricultural Zoning Total Lane Miles (principal arterials) Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Vehicle Hours Traveled (allows us to calculate the percentage of time motorists will drive in congestion) Average Free Flow Speed Average Congested Speed Impervious surface, by watershed Public drinking water system demand, by system Point source (WWTP) wastewater discharge, by watershed Number of septic systems, by watershed

49 How Do We Organize the Factors? The Fundamental Rule of Sound Decision-making: Decisions must be based on the importance of advantages.

50 1. Development is concentrated in suitable areas 2. Sensitive areas are protected 3. In rural areas, growth is directed to existing population centers 4. Stewardship of the Chesapeake Bay and the land is a universal ethic 5. Conservation of resources, including a reduction in resource consumption, is practiced. 6. Economic growth is encouraged and regulatory mechanisms are streamlined 7. Adequate public facilities and infrastructure are available or planned 8. Funding mechanisms are addressed to achieve the visions. Maryland’s Eight Visions

51 Functions (from Visions) Concentrate Development in Suitable Areas Protect Sensitive Areas Direct Growth to Existing Population Centers Protect the Chesapeake Bay Conserve Resources and Reduce Resource Consumption Encourage Economic Growth Streamline Regulatory Mechanisms Assure that Public Facilities and Infrastructure are Adequate to Meet Future Needs Create Funding Mechanisms to Achieve the Visions

52 From Functions to Factors The Fundamental Rule of Sound Decision-making: Decisions must be based on the importance of advantages.

53 Growth Factors Concentrate New Development Inside the PFA/Growth Corridor Minimize the Number of Acres Developed Outside the PFA/Growth Corridor Minimize the Loss of Agricultural Land (acres) Assure that at least X percent of the County is in Rural Land Use Minimize the Loss of Forest Land (acres) Maximize the Percentage of Residential and Commercial Land Developed within the PFA/Growth Corridor Maximize Mixed Use Development within the PFA/Growth Corridor Maximize the Amount of Preserved Land in the County Concentrate Funding for Infrastructure Improvements within the Growth Corridor Minimize Impacts to Sensitive Areas (wetlands and riparian areas)

54 Travel Factors Minimize Total Lane Miles (principal arterials) Minimize Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Minimize Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT) Maximize Average Free Flow Speed Maximize Average Congested Speed Maximize the Percentage of People Who Can Walk or B ike to Work, Mass Transit and Other Destinations Minimize Travel Time to Destinations Ensure that Densities are Developed at Levels that Support Transit Create a Land Use Pattern that Supports Rail Transit

55 Water Resource Factors Minimize Impervious Surface (by watershed) Assure Adequate Public Drinking Water System Supply (by system) Minimize Point Source Nutrient Discharge (by watershed) Minimize Septic Systems Nutrient Load (by watershed) Assure Wastewater Treatment Plant Capacity Maximize Groundwater Recharge (by watershed) Minimize Stormwater Loads (by watershed) Improve Overall Water Quality (measured by discharge into the bay)

56 Other Factors Ensure that employment land served by public infrastructure is adequate to meet future demand (buildout employment) Ensure that the County Has the Capability to Implement the Plan Ensure that the Towns Have the Capability to Implement the Plan Measure impacts on public facilities and infrastructure, including schools and roads

57 Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world Cecil County Comprehensive Plan Oversight Committee Meeting October 15, 2008

58 Scenario Land Use Residential Zoning DistrictAcresExisting Density (units/acre) Resource Lands MH, RM1, VR, DR, TR All others86,690 Rural NAR49, RR11, SR, MH5, DR, TR VR RM Development RR1, SR13, MH, VR1, NAR3, MEA396 DR, TR7, RM1, Urban Open SpaceAll districtsn/a Employment/ Development All districts9,626 Town DevelopmentAll Towns8, (unless specified by town) Growth Corridor Scenario

59 Scenario Land Use Residential Zoning DistrictAcresExisting Density (units/acre) Resource Lands MH, RM1, VR, DR, TR1, All others134,377 Rural NAR15, OS RR5, SR, MH, RM6, DR Development RR SR11, MH, VR1, NAR MEA136 DR, TR7, RM1, Urban Open Space All districtsn/a Employment/ Development All districts6,784 Town Development All Towns9, (unless specified by town) Greenbelts Scenario


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