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 If the null-hypothesis is true, the P-value (probability value) of a hypothesis test is the probability of obtaining a sample statistic with a value.

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Presentation on theme: " If the null-hypothesis is true, the P-value (probability value) of a hypothesis test is the probability of obtaining a sample statistic with a value."— Presentation transcript:

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2  If the null-hypothesis is true, the P-value (probability value) of a hypothesis test is the probability of obtaining a sample statistic with a value as extreme or more extreme than the one determined from the sample data (farther away).

3  The smaller the P-Value, the more evidence there is to reject the null hypothesis.  A very small P-Value indicates a rare occurrence.  If the P-Value ≤ α, then you will reject the null hypothesis.  If the P-Value > α, then you will fail to reject the null hypothesis.

4 ◦ If H a contains <, the test is a left-tailed test.  P is the area to the left of the test statistic. ◦ If H a contains >, the test is a right-tailed test.  P is the area to the right of the test statistic. ◦ If H a contains ≠, the test is a two-tailed test.  P is the area to the left of the negative test statistic, and P is the area to the right of the positive test statistic.

5  Hypothesis tests for proportions occur (for example) when a politician wants to know the proportion of his or her constituents who favor a certain bill or when a quality assurance engineer tests the proportion of parts which are defective.  Z-Test for a Proportion P: A statistical test for a population proportion P. It can be used when np ≥ 5 and nq ≥ 5. (q is 1-p)  A test statistic is the sample proportion p-hat. The standardized test statistic is z…formula to follow later.

6 1. Verify that np ≥ 5 and nq ≥ 5. If these are true, the distribution for p-hat will be normal and you can continue; otherwise you cannot use normal distribution for the problem. 2. State the claim…Identify null and alternative hypotheses. 3. Specify the level of significance (α). 4. Sketch the sampling distribution (make a curve).

7 5. Determine any critical values (see next slide). These will be borders between rejection regions and non-rejection regions (below). They will be the same values each time. 6. Determine any rejection regions. These are a range of values for which the H o is not probable. If a test statistic falls into this region, H o is rejected. A critical value separates the rejection region from the non-rejection region.

8 TailedSignificance LevelCritical Value Left Right Two0.10±1.645 Left Right Two0.05±1.96 Left Right Two0.01±2.575

9 7. Find the z-score (standard score): 8. Make a decision to reject or fail to reject Ho.Ho. 9. Interpret the decision in the context of the original claim.

10  A medical researcher claims that less than 20% of adults in the U.S. are allergic to a medication. In a random sample of 100 adults, 15% say they have such an allergy. At α = 0.01, is there enough evidence to support the researcher’s claim?  n = 100, p = 0.20, q = 0.80  1.np = 20, nq = 80…you can continue.  2.H o : p ≥ 0.2, H a : p < 0.2

11  Since H a is <, this is a left-tailed test, and since α = 0.01, we will be using the critical value as (they use the symbol z o for this).  See drawing on board for sketch.  The rejection region is z <  The standardized test statistic (z) is:

12  Since z = -1.25, and this is not in the rejection region, you should decide not to reject the null hypothesis.  Interpretation: There is not enough evidence to support the claim that less than 20% of adults in the U.S. are allergic to the medication.

13  USA Today reports that 5% of US adults have seen an extraterrestrial being. You decide to test this claim and ask a random sample of 250 U.S. adults whether they have ever seen an extraterrestrial being. Of those surveyed 8% reply yes. At α = 0.01, is there enough evidence to reject the claim?  Your group is to complete and document all the steps to come to the final answer. This will be turned in.

14  There will be some on Friday 


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